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Scientists find large Gulf dead zone, but smaller than predicted

July 29, 2013

 2013 hypoxia area on the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shelf

Map showing the hypoxia area on the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shelf in 2013.

Download here (Credit: LUMCON (Rabalais))

NOAA-supported scientists found a large Gulf of Mexico oxygen-free or hypoxic “dead” zone, but not as large as had been predicted. Measuring 5,840 square miles, an area the size of Connecticut, the 2013 Gulf dead zone indicates nutrients from the Mississippi River watershed are continuing to affect the nation’s commercial and recreational marine resources in the Gulf.

“A near-record area was expected because of wet spring conditions in the Mississippi watershed and the resultant high river flows which deliver large amounts of nutrients,” said Nancy Rabalais, Ph.D. executive director of the Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium (LUMCON), who led the July 21-28 survey cruise. “But nature’s wind-mixing events and winds forcing the mass of low oxygen water towards the east resulted in a slightly above average bottom footprint.”

Hypoxia is fueled by nutrient runoff from agricultural and other human activities in the watershed. These nutrients stimulate an overgrowth of algae that sinks, decomposes and consumes most of the oxygen needed to support life. Normally the low or no oxygen area is found closer to the Gulf floor as the decaying algae settle towards the bottom. This year researchers found many areas across the Gulf where oxygen conditions were severely low at the bottom and animals normally found at the seabed were swimming at the surface.

 2013 hypoxia area on the Louisiana Gulf of Mexico shelf

Graph showing historical hypoxia trends.

Download here (Credit: LUMCON (Rabalais))

This is in contrast to 2012, when drought conditions resulted in the fourth smallest dead zones on record, measuring 2,889 square miles, an area slightly larger than Delaware. The largest previous dead zone was in 2002, encompassing 8,481 square miles. The smallest recorded dead zone measured 15 square miles in 1988. The average size of the dead zone over the past five years has been 5,176 square miles, more than twice the 1,900 square mile goal set by the Gulf of Mexico / Mississippi River Watershed Nutrient Task Force in 2001 and reaffirmed in 2008.

On June 18, NOAA-sponsored forecast models developed by Donald Scavia, Ph.D., University of Michigan, and R. Eugene Turner, Ph.D., Louisiana State University,  predicted the Gulf hypoxic zone would range in size from 7,286 to 8,561 square miles.

“NOAA’s investment in the Gulf of Mexico continues to yield results that confirm the complex dynamics of hypoxia and provide managers and the public with accurate scientific information for managing and restoring the nation's valuable coastal resources,” said Robert Magnien, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research. “For those who depend upon and enjoy the abundant natural resources of the Gulf of Mexico, it is imperative that we intensify our efforts to reduce nutrient pollution before the ecosystem degrades any further.”

This annual measurement provides federal and state agencies working on the 2008 Gulf task force implementation actions with the real consequences of inadequate nutrient pollution management. The task force’s actions are set for review this summer.

The hypoxic zone off the coast of Louisiana and Texas forms each summer threatening the ecosystem supporting valuable commercial and recreational Gulf fisheries that in 2011 had a commercial dockside value of $818 million and an estimated 23 million recreational fishing trips. The Gulf task force, in its 2008 report, states that "hypoxia has negative impacts on marine resources." It further states that research on living resources in the Gulf show long term ecological changes in species diversity and a large scale, often rapid change, in the ecosystem's food-web that is both "difficult and impossible to reverse." Additionally, there are numerous annual areas of the Gulf where large scale fish kills occur as a result of hypoxia.

Two surveys conducted in June and early July, one of which was led by a NOAA-supported Texas A&M University team, suggested a large hypoxic zone was forming in the Gulf, though the LUMCON July measurement will be the official one as required of NOAA by the Task Force. NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service, in conducting its Southeast Monitoring and Assessment Program groundfish surveys, also found large expanses of hypoxia in June-early July. Texas A&M will be conducting a follow-up cruise in mid-August to provide its final seasonal update.

Visit the Gulf Hypoxia web site for additional graphics and information concerning this summer’s LUMCON research cruise, and previous cruises.

NOAA’s National Ocean Service has been funding monitoring and research for the dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico since 1985 and currently oversees the NGOMEX program, the hypoxia research effort for the northern Gulf which is authorized by the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act.

The National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science is the coastal science office for NOAA’s National Ocean Service.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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To ease impact of quota cuts on New England groundfisheries, NOAA proposes opening long-time closure areas

July 10, 2013

Map showing proposed areas to be re-opened after long-time closure.

Map showing proposed areas to be re-opened after long-time closure.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

As part of an overall effort to help fishermen adjust to new quota cuts for groundfish implemented last month, today, NOAA Fisheries announced a proposal to open approximately 33 percent of areas currently closed to protect groundfish and habitat that have been off limits for nearly 20 years -- that is 2,925 square miles of the approximately 8,920 sq miles currently closed. The proposal also includes protections to ensure that habitat, vulnerable groundfish stocks, and other species, such as whales and harbor porpoise, are not put at risk.

In April, based largely on advice from the New England Fishery Management Council, NOAA Fisheries announced its final management measures for the Northeast groundfish fishery, including much lower quotas for some key stocks. Those measures went into effect in May. NOAA Fisheries has been working for months to lessen the effects of these cuts on fishermen and fishing communities, including increasing quotas and approving use of various gear and fishing methods to help fishermen better target healthy groundfish and other stocks prior to today’s announcement.

“We’ve been working with fishermen, state managers and others to find creative ways to help fishermen identify sustainable fishing opportunities this year,” said John Bullard, NOAA Fisheries northeast regional administrator. “Today’s action is another step in our overall effort to help transition fishing effort to healthy, more abundant fish stocks, while we work to rebuild cod and other stocks in poor condition and protect important habitats that are crucial for the overall health of our marine ecosystems.”

The three offshore areas under consideration lie to the south and east of Cape Cod. NOAA Fisheries does not propose to reopen these areas in their entirety; specific sections will remain closed based on the Council’s recommendations to protect habitat. Also, catch of stocks that are in poor condition, such as Georges Bank yellowtail and cod stocks, or are spawning, will be minimized through seasonal restrictions and the use of selective trawl and hook gear.

While these areas have been closed to groundfishing, other fishing activities have occurred in portions of these areas including lobster fishing. NOAA Fisheries also proposes to enact an agreement negotiated between groundfish and lobster fishermen, and recommended by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, which limits groundfishing to times of year when lobster fishing is not as prevalent to minimize the potential for conflict between gear types.

“When year-round closures were put in place, our main goal was to reduce groundfish catch. However, now that fishermen are operating under annual catch limits, we no longer need year-round closures to control total catch but some areas still need to remain closed to protect habitat and those that we open must be opened in a responsible and sustainable way,” continued Bullard.

In areas that NOAA Fisheries is proposing to reopen, the agency is proposing to require monitoring on all fishing trips to gather data on fish caught and possible interactions with whales, harbor porpoise, and other animals. Fishing vessel operators wanting access to these areas will be required to cover the cost of monitoring.

NOAA Fisheries is also proposing to keep inshore year-round closures in place. This decision is due to the poor condition of Gulf of Maine cod and haddock and concerns expressed by a number of commercial and recreational fishermen and members of the environmental community.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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NOAA, EUMETSAT sign long-term agreement for weather, climate monitoring

August 28, 2013

Building on a 30-year relationship, top officials from NOAA and the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) signed a long-term cooperative agreement, ensuring continued space-based weather, water and climate monitoring.

At a ceremony at the European Union (EU) Delegation in Washington, D.C. yesterday, Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D., NOAA acting administrator and Alain Ratier, EUMETSAT’s director general, signed the agreement. They were joined by Dr. Francois Rivasseau, deputy chief of mission, EU Delegation to the United States.

“The need for environmental intelligence has never been stronger. This partnership with our EUMETSAT colleagues allows us to continue collecting and sharing vital space-based observations, resulting in a better understanding of our global environment,” Sullivan said.

Ratier added, “The partnership between EUMETSAT and NOAA has continuously developed over the last 30 years and taken a strategic dimension, bringing substantial benefits to Europe, the USA and the worldwide user communities. Today the partnership covers back-up arrangements and data exchange for geostationary satellites and full sharing of low Earth orbit satellite systems, with the Initial Joint Polar System and the Jason series. With this agreement, we have established a policy framework to further develop our cooperation into the next decades.”

Key successes of the NOAA-EUMETSAT partnership include:

NOAA and EUMETSAT operate a joint polar satellite system, where EUMETSAT’s Metop satellites fly in the mid-morning orbit, while NOAA’s polar satellites and the Suomi NPP spacecraft fly in the afternoon orbit. Both agencies share all the data, which form the backbone of all medium range weather forecasts in the United States and Europe and make up the majority of the data used by the U.S. weather model (GFS) and the major European weather model (ECMWF).NOAA instruments fly onboard the EUMETSAT satellites, and EUMETSAT instruments are on the NOAA spacecraft, providing cost savings and more uniform datasets for meteorologists and scientists across continents.NOAA and EUMETSAT also exchange data from geostationary satellites, and have a back-up agreement in place for data sharing should either agency’s spacecraft experience trouble.The partnership also extends to the Jason-2 ocean surface topography mission that has been crucial to improvements in weather modeling and tropical storm intensification forecasting, and is supporting the EU-led Copernicus Earth Observation program with data from the Suomi NPP satellite.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. For more information about NOAA satellites, please visit: www.nesdis.noa.gov and follow us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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Explorers discover northernmost Atlantic seeps, deep-sea canyon diversity, off U.S. Northeast

August 2, 2013

Octopus hatching.

Alongside the diverse coral community in Hydrographer Canyon, ROV Deep Discoverer observed a glass sponge containing cephalopod eggs. If you look closely you can see what looks to be a recent hatchling! (Cephalopods include squids, cuttlefishes and octopuses.)

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

Ocean explorers in July on NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer discovered a wide diversity of seafloor features and communities of life in the largely unexplored deep-sea canyons off the northeast U.S. coast. Now through August 16, as the expedition continues, the public can join the mission as “citizen scientists,” at oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/okeanos, to see live seafloor video and listen as scientists discuss their observations in real time. During the expedition’s July leg, there were nearly 60,000 visits to the live streaming video.

Canyons represent some of the most striking features of the continental slope off the U.S. East Coast and may also be among the most productive areas in the deep sea. Organic matter and nutrient-rich sediments are often concentrated in these areas and strong currents flow through the steep and rugged terrain of the canyons, exposing hard substrates. With an increase in food availability and a variety of different habitat types across varying depths, submarine canyons may contain higher biodiversity and biomass than the adjacent continental slope, and are likely places to observe deep-sea corals, sponges, and other deep-sea marine organisms.

Methane hydrate.

Close-up of methane hydrate observed at a depth of 1,055 meters, near where bubble plumes were detected in previous sonar data. Pressure and cold temperatures create methane hydrate where molecules of natural gas are trapped in an ice-like cage of water molecules. Methane hydrates, a hydrate patch and chemosynthetic communities were seen during this dive, but no active seepage was observed. Seeps were investigated at other locations.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

During the July leg of the expedition, the ship’s multibeam sonar detected bubbles rising from the seafloor in several locations about 90 nautical miles southeast of Nantucket, Mass. These water-column plumes were traced to seafloor seeps where explorers observed chemosynthetic communities of life supported by chemicals rather than by sunlight. These are the northernmost seeps detected to date on the U.S. Atlantic margin.

The discoveries are expected to help fisheries and other ocean resource managers make better-informed decisions about how to manage, use and protect the ocean and its resources. Scientists believe the need to learn more about these relatively undisturbed canyon ecosystems is becoming more urgent, particularly as the potential for fishing, marine mining, and hydrocarbon exploration extends into the deep sea.

“We found these little-explored canyons are highly dynamic,” said Tim Shank, a deep-sea biologist from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who participated from ashore. “With each dive of the ROVs (remotely operated vehicles that are undersea robots with cameras), we documented vertical walls with jagged rock failures, collapsed features, and extensive debris fields. Each canyon also appeared to host different biological communities — even different depths within the same canyon would reveal different types of coral and sponge ecosystems.

“As we explored different sides and depth zones of these canyons, we discovered a broad physical and biological diversity,” said Shank. “One canyon would host great animal diversity but low animal abundance and the next canyon would reveal just the opposite. As with any new deep-sea region we explore, we observed many suspected new species and remarkable range extensions of known species. All these observations will be highly informative to design and implement ocean conservation and management strategies in the near future.”

ROV Deep Discoverer.

ROV Deep Discoverer investigates the geomorphology of Block Canyon.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

Explorers also observed several instances of new coral life establishing itself, hundreds of skate and cat shark eggs on the seafloor and attached to deep-sea corals, and numerous octopus and squid guarding clutches of eggs. Initial impressions revealed these canyons are hot spots for biodiversity, hosting more than 25 species of corals, and hundreds of associated animals.

Andrea Quattrini, a Ph.D. student from Temple University in Philadelphia, said the expedition provided an immense opportunity for the ocean science and management communities to educate and train the next generation of explorers and deep-sea scientists.

“Their ability to interact with thirty to forty scientists with different areas of expertise, and the free exchange of ideas and discussion, further advanced the exploration and findings by defining new questions and outlining exciting avenues for future research,” she said.

Teachers may take advantage of an Expedition Educational Module at http://go.usa.gov/jn2h. The site provides products tied to the expedition including standards-based lesson plans and ocean-career connections.

Brendan Roark, a geographer from Texas A&M University who participated in the expedition from the ship, believes corals in the area may live as long as 4,000 years. “Deep-sea corals provide a new archive that can help us reconstruct past ocean and climate conditions,” he said. “They grow in a shrub-like fashion and most importantly, they deposit annual growth rings much like trees do. Because of their extremely long life spans, they may develop high resolution records of oceanographic and climate variability.”

An international team of more than 40 scientists and students – partners from multiple federal agencies and academic institutions – located mostly on shore, participated in the expedition’s first leg, receiving data and live video from the ship via telepresence-technology, using satellite and Internet pathways. The science team included several scientists at sea and others in Washington D.C., 12 U.S. states and two nations.

Scientists on the expedition’s July leg mapped 7,209 square kilometers of seafloor as they explored areas between 560 meters (1,837 feet) and 2,135 meters (7,005 feet) deep, in and between Block, Alvin, Atlantis, Veatch and Hydrographer canyons. The second leg is exploring Welker, Oceanographer, Lydonia, Nygren and Heezen canyons as well as Mytilus Seamount, one of the easternmost seamounts along the submerged northeast New England Seamount Chain within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone. Very little information exists for these areas. Scientists on both expedition legs are obtaining valuable data using the latest technologies including state-of-the-art multibeam sonar and NOAA’s new 6,000-meter ROV, Deep Discoverer, coupled with the Seirios camera sled and lighting platform.

NOAA Fisheries’ Deep-Sea Coral Research and Technology Program and the Northeast Regional planning team contributed scientific and financial support to this expedition. The program provides scientific information needed by NOAA and regional management councils to conserve and manage the nation’s deep-sea coral ecosystems.

NOAA’s Ocean Exploration Program is the only federal program dedicated to systematic exploration of the planet’s largely unknown ocean. NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer is operated, managed and maintained by NOAA’s Office of Marine and Aviation Operations which includes commissioned officers of the NOAA Corps and civilian wage mariners. NOAA’s Office of Ocean Exploration and Research operates, manages and maintains the cutting-edge ocean exploration systems on the vessel and ashore.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

Close up view of a stalked crinoid’s (sea lily) mouth and arms.

Close up view of a stalked crinoid’s (sea lily) mouth and arms. At least two species of crinoids were noted during a dive at Block Canyon, including stalked crinoids.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

Corals.

Corals, including cup corals and bubblegum corals reside on the hard substrate near the edge of a mussel bed.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer.

NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer, “America’s Ship for Ocean Exploration,” is the only federally funded U.S. ship assigned to systematically explore our largely unknown ocean for the purpose of discovery and the advancement of knowledge. Telepresence, using real-time broadband satellite communications, connects the ship and its discoveries live with audiences ashore.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)

Deep Discoverer.

During NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer’s mid-expedition port visit to New York City, Dave Lovalvo answers questions for visiting Sea Cadets, about NOAA’s new ROV (remotely operated vehicle) Deep Discoverer, behind Lovalvo. The ROV weighs 9,200 pounds in air, and can dive as deep as 6,000 meters (nearly 20,000 feet). Sea Cadets are with the youth program of the Navy League of the United States.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA Okeanos Explorer Program/2013 Northeast U.S. Canyons Expedition)


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New website features millions of chemical analyses from Deepwater Horizon oil spill

September 12, 2013

NOAA announced the release yesterday of a comprehensive, quality-controlled dataset  that gives ready access to millions of chemical analyses and other data on the massive Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill. The dataset, collected to support oil removal activities and assess the presence of dispersants, wraps up a three year process that began with the gathering of water samples and measurements by ships in the Gulf of Mexico during and after the oil release in 2010. 

NOAA was one of the principal agencies responding to the Macondo well explosion in the Gulf of Mexico, and is the official ocean data archivist for the federal government. While earlier versions of the data were made available during and shortly after the response, it took three years for NOAA employees and contractors to painstakingly catalog each piece of data into this final form.

This Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill dataset, including more than two million chemical analyses of sediment, tissue, water, and oil, as well as toxicity testing results and related documentation, is available to the public online at: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/deepwaterhorizon/specialcollections.html.

A companion dataset, including ocean temperature and salinity data, currents, preliminary chemical results and other properties collected and made available during the response can be found at: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/deepwaterhorizon/insitu.html.

The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill response involved the collection of an enormous dataset. The underwater plume of hydrocarbon -- a chemical compound that consists primarily of the elements carbon and hydrogen -- was a unique feature of the spill, resulting from a combination of high-pressure discharge from the well near the seafloor and the underwater application of chemical dispersant to break up the oil. 

“The size and scope of this project -- the sheer number of ships and platforms collecting data, and the broad range of data types -- was a real challenge. In the end, it was a great example of what can be accomplished when you bring together the expertise across NOAA, making this quality-controlled information easily available to the general public for the first time,” said Margarita Gregg, Ph. D., director of the National Oceanographic Data Center, which is part of NOAA's Satellite and Information Service.

The effort to detect and track the plume was given to the Deepwater Horizon Response Subsurface Monitoring Unit (SMU), led by NOAA’s Office of Response and Restoration, and included responders from many federal and state agencies and British Petroleum (BP). Between May and November 2010, the SMU coordinated data collection from 24 ships on 129 cruises.  

The SMU data archived at NOAA’s National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) is already being used by researchers at NOAA and in academia for a range of studies, including models of oil plume movement and investigations of subsurface oxygen anomalies. In addition to NODC, other parts of the NOAA archive system such as NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center and the NOAA Central Library contain important holdings. Recently, the library‘s Deepwater Horizon Centralized Repository won recognition from the Department of Justice “as one of the best successes in the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) world last year.”

By law, these data will remain available through NOAA’s archive systems for at least 75 years. Additional data from the Deepwater Horizon/Macondo spill can be found at the NOAA oil spill archive website: http://www.noaa.gov/deepwaterhorizon/ and data collected in the on-going Natural Resource Damage Assessment can be found at: http://www.gulfspillrestoration.noaa.gov/.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


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Partners deploy underwater robots to improve hurricane science

September 9, 2013

A fleet of underwater robots is descending into waters off the east coast to collect data that could help improve storm intensity forecasts during future hurricane seasons. Several regions of the NOAA-led U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) are partnering to deploy 12 to 16 autonomous underwater robotic vehicles, also known as gliders, from Nova Scotia to Georgia.  

The gliders will be available through the peak fall Atlantic storm season to collect data on ocean conditions, which will help improve scientists’ understanding of hurricanes and pave the way for future improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts.  

“When storms are moving along our coasts, lives depend on accurate forecasts,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “The unmanned gliders will allow us to collect data even in the middle of the storm and eventually provide this information to NOAA’s National Weather Service to help improve forecast precision so decision makers can keep people safe.”

Scientists will deploy the first gliders in the fleet in early September and continue deploying from different locations throughout the next two to three weeks. Each glider will be deployed for three to eight weeks, collecting data into October.

The underwater gliders can travel thousands of miles and continuously collect and send back ocean data. They can operate for several months at a time and can dive repeatedly to collect three-dimensional ocean observations.

Rutgers University is leading this combined science mission involving all three of the east coast IOOS regions: Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. In addition to glider data, the mission will use satellite, moored buoy and coastal radar data. During the mission, the gliders will also collect acoustic data about fish and mammal migrations to improve the understanding of their behaviors.  

Collected glider data will go through NOAA’s National Data Buoy Center to NOAA’s National Weather Service, the U.S. Navy and other data users for modeling. Data from the glider missions will also be public and available on the IOOS Glider Asset Map and at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/gliders.php

In addition to NOAA funding, provided through the IOOS regions, other funding sources for the project include the Office of Naval Research, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, a private donor from the University of Delaware, and Canada’s Ocean Technology Network.

IOOS is a federal, regional and private sector partnership working to enhance the ability to collect, deliver and use ocean information. IOOS delivers the data and information needed to increase understanding of our ocean and coasts so that decision makers can act to improve safety, enhance the economy, and protect the environment.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


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National Weather Service more than doubles computing capacity

July 29, 2013

This is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model showing the Tropical Storm Flossie precipitation forecast for the Hawaiian Islands on July 29, 2013.

This is the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model showing the Tropical Storm Flossie precipitation forecast for the Hawaiian Islands on July 29, 2013. HWRF is one of the sophisticated numerical computer models now being run on NOAA's new supercomputers.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

Whizzing through 213 trillion calculations per second, newly upgraded supercomputers of NOAA’s National Weather Service are now more than twice as fast in processing sophisticated computer models to provide more accurate forecasts further out in time. And as the hurricane season ramps up, forecasters will be armed with an enhanced hurricane model that will improve track and intensity forecasts.

The scientific data and insights that these newly upgraded supercomputers will provide are essential to help government officials, communities, and businesses better understand and manage the risks associated with extreme weather and water events. In support of the president’s Climate Action Plan, the administration will continue to take steps like this to analyze and predict climate variability amid an increasing number of extreme natural events affecting the nation.

“These improvements are just the beginning and build on our previous success. They lay the foundation for further computing enhancements and more accurate forecast models that are within reach,” said Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “These upgrades are a game-changer for the entire public and private weather industry. In addition to the benefits to our own forecasters and products, we will provide our private sector partners with better information to empower them to enhance their services.”

Nicknamed “Tide,” the supercomputer in Reston, Va., and its Orlando-based backup named “Gyre,” are operating with 213 teraflops (TF) — up from the 90 TF with the computers that preceded them. This higher processing power allows the National Weather Service to implement an enhanced Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model.

"These forecasting advances can save lives,” said U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who helped get funding to add even more capacity to the supercomputer. “It's going to allow for better tracking of life-threatening storms and more accurately predict when and where they'll hit, and with what intensity."

With improved physics and a storm-tracking algorithm, the model has displayed up to a 15 percent improvement in both track and intensity forecasts, compared to last year's version of the model. The upgraded HWRF is also capable of processing real-time data collected from the inner core of a tropical system by the tail Doppler radar attached to NOAA’s P3 hurricane hunter aircraft, data which are expected to produce even greater forecast improvements.

“Next comes the quantum leap,” added Uccellini. Following this round of long-planned upgrades, funding requested in the FY 2014 President’s Budget, in addition to funding provided to NOAA by Congress in the spring of 2013 as part of the Hurricane Sandy emergency supplemental appropriations bill, would increase computing power even further to 1,950 TF by summer 2015. “That gives us the necessary computer power to run an enhanced version of our primary forecast model, the Global Forecast System,” said Uccellini.

"Given recent events like the tornado in Moore, Oklahoma or Superstorm Sandy, federal weather resources and personnel should be considered vital national assets. These upgrades assure world-class capabilities and a continued pathway to keep American lives and property safer," said J. Marshall Shepherd Ph.D., president of the American Meteorological Society and Professor at the University of Georgia. "As a father of two children and a scientist that understands looming weather threats, I take comfort in these developments."

Investments in supercomputing power for weather prediction are another step in NOAA’s efforts to build a Weather-Ready Nation. NOAA’s Weather-Ready Nation initiative, launched nearly two-years ago, has resulted in improvements in products, services and the way information is communicated to the public and partners. These improvements increase resilience to severe weather and reduce the potential of significant societal and economic impacts from severe weather.  A Weather-Ready Nation is a society that is prepared for, and responds effectively to, weather-related events.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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New analyses find evidence of human-caused climate change in half of the 12 extreme weather and climate events analyzed from 2012

September 5, 2013

Breezy Point, New York, November 14, 2012, in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass communication Specialist Ryan J. Courtade/Released

The "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective" report was published today by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. (Full report).

High resolution (Credit: U.S. Navy)

Human influences are having an impact on some extreme weather and climate events, according to the report “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective” released today by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Overall, 18 different research teams from around the world contributed to the peer-reviewed report that examined the causes of 12 extreme events that occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 2012. Scientists from NOAA served as three of the four lead editors on the report.
The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of the 2012 extreme events. However, in some events, the analyses revealed compelling evidence that human-caused climate change, through the emission of heat-trapping gases, also contributed to the extreme event.

“This report adds to a growing ability of climate science to untangle the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). “Nonetheless, determining the causes of extreme events remains challenging.”

In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events — the warm temperatures in the United States, the record-low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in both northern Europe and eastern Australia — allowed the scientists to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of their various methods of analysis. Despite their different strategies, there was considerable agreement between the assessments of the same events.

Thomas Peterson, Ph.D., principal scientist at NOAA’s NCDC and one of the lead editors on the report, said, “Scientists around the world assessed a wide variety of potential contributing factors to these major extreme events that, in many cases, had large impacts on society. Understanding the range of influences on extreme events helps us to better understand how and why extremes are changing."

Key findings include:

Location and type of events analyzed in the Paper.

Location and type of events analyzed in the Paper.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Heat Wave and Drought in United States:

Human-induced climate change had little impact on the lack of precipitation in the central United States in 2012.The 2012 spring and summer heat waves in the U.S. can be mainly explained by natural atmospheric dynamics, however, human-induced climate change was found to be a factor in the magnitude of warmth and was found to have affected the likelihood of such heat waves.  For example: High temperatures, such as those experienced in the U.S. in 2012 are now likely to occur four times as frequently due to human-induced climate change.Approximately 35 percent of the extreme warmth experienced in the eastern U.S. between March and May 2012 can be attributed to human-induced climate change.  

Hurricane Sandy Inundation Probability:

The record-setting impacts of Sandy were largely attributable to the massive storm surge and resulting inundation from the onshore-directed storm path coincident with high tide. However, climate-change related increases in sea level have nearly doubled today’s annual probability of a Sandy-level flood recurrence as compared to 1950. Ongoing natural and human-induced forcing of sea level ensures that Sandy-level inundation events will occur more frequently in the future from storms with less intensity and lower storm surge than Sandy. 

Arctic Sea Ice:

The extremely low Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2012 resulted primarily from the melting of younger, thin ice from a warmed atmosphere and ocean. This event cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Summer Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decrease in the future, and is expected to be largely absent by mid-century.  

Global Rainfall Events:

The unusually high amount of summer rainfall in the United Kingdom in 2012 was largely the result of natural variability. However, there is evidence that rainfall totals are influenced by increases in sea surface temperature and atmospheric moisture which may be linked to human influences on climate.The magnitude of the extreme rainfall experienced over southeastern Australia between October 2011 and March 2012 was mainly associated with La Niña conditions. However, the likelihood of above-average precipitation during March was found to have increased by 5 percent to 15 percent because of human influences on the climate. Extreme rainfall events such as the December 2011 two-day rainfall in Golden Bay, New Zealand, are more likely to occur due to a 1 percent to 5 percent increase in available moisture resulting from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The July 2012 extreme rainfall events in North China and southwestern Japan were mainly due to natural variability. 

The report was edited by Peterson, along with Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory; Peter A. Stott, UK Met Office Hadley Centre and Stephanie C. Herring of NCDC and written by 78 scientists from 11 countries. View the full report online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.


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2012 was one of the 10 warmest years on record globally

August 6, 2013

State of the Climate in 2012 - report cover.

The 2012 State of the Climate report is available online.

(Credit: NOAA)

Worldwide, 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record according to the 2012 State of the Climate report released online today by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The peer-reviewed report, with scientists from NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C., serving as lead editors, was compiled by 384 scientists from 52 countries (highlights, full report). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments on land, sea, ice, and sky. 

“Many of the events that made 2012 such an interesting year are part of the long-term trends we see in a changing and varying climate — carbon levels are climbing, sea levels are rising, Arctic sea ice is melting, and our planet as a whole is becoming a warmer place," said Acting NOAA Administrator Kathryn D. Sullivan, Ph.D. “This annual report is well-researched, well-respected, and well-used; it is a superb example of the timely, actionable climate information that people need from NOAA to help prepare for extremes in our ever-changing environment."

Conditions in the Arctic were a major story of 2012, with the region experiencing unprecedented change and breaking several records. Sea ice shrank to its smallest “summer minimum” extent since satellite records began 34 years ago. In addition, more than 97 percent of the Greenland ice sheet showed some form of melt during the summer, four times greater than the 1981–2010 average melt extent.

Temperature in 2012 compared to the 1981-2010 average.

Temperature in 2012 compared to the 1981-2010 average. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NCDC data. See more.

The report used dozens of climate indicators to track and identify changes and overall trends to the global climate system. These indicators include greenhouse gas concentrations, temperature of the lower and upper atmosphere, cloud cover, sea surface temperature, sea-level rise, ocean salinity, sea ice extent and snow cover. Each indicator includes thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets.

Highlights:

Warm temperature trends continue near Earth’s surface: Four major independent datasets show 2012 was among the 10 warmest years on record, ranking either 8th or 9th, depending upon the dataset used. The United States and Argentina had their warmest year on record. La Niña dissipates into neutral conditions:  A weak La Niña dissipated during spring 2012 and, for the first time in several years, neither El Niño nor La Niña, which can dominate regional weather and climate conditions around the globe, prevailed for the majority of the year.  The Arctic continues to warm; sea ice extent reaches record low: The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June each reached new record lows. Arctic sea ice minimum extent (1.32 million square miles, September 16) was the lowest of the satellite era. This is 18 percent lower than the previous record low extent of 1.61 million square miles that occurred in 2007 and 54 percent lower than the record high minimum ice extent of 2.90 million square miles that occurred in 1980. The temperature of permafrost, or permanently frozen land, reached record-high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred July 11–12 on the Greenland ice sheet when 97 percent of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt this time of year. Antarctica sea ice extent reaches record high: The Antarctic maximum sea ice extent reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles on September 26. This is 0.5 percent higher than the previous record high extent of 7.47 million square miles that occurred in 2006 and seven percent higher than the record low maximum sea ice extent of 6.96 million square miles that occurred in 1986. Sea surface temperatures increase: Four independent datasets indicate that the globally averaged sea surface temperature for 2012 was among the 11 warmest on record.  After a 30-year period from 1970 to 1999 of rising global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000–2012 exhibited little trend. Part of this difference is linked to the prevalence of La Niña-like conditions during the 21st century, which typically lead to lower global sea surface temperatures. Ocean heat content remains near record levels: Heat content in the upper 2,300 feet, or a little less than one-half mile, of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Overall increases from 2011 to 2012 occurred between depths of 2,300 to 6,600 feet and even in the deep ocean. Sea level reaches record high: Following sharp decreases in global sea level in the first half of 2011 that were linked to the effects of La Niña, sea levels rebounded to reach record highs in 2012. Globally, sea level has been increasing at an average rate of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year over the past two decades. Sea ice concentration reached a new record low in mid-September 2012.

Sea ice concentration reached a new record low in mid-September 2012. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov, based on NSIDC data. See more. 

Ocean salinity trends continue: Continuing a trend that began in 2004, oceans were saltier than average in areas of high evaporation, including the central tropical North Pacific, and fresher than average in areas of high precipitation, including the north central Indian Ocean, suggesting that precipitation is increasing in already rainy areas and evaporation is intensifying in drier locations. Tropical cyclones near average: Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms, compared with the 1981–2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. Greenhouse gases climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2012. Following a slight decline in manmade emissions associated with the global economic downturn, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record high in 2011 of 9.5 ± 0.5 petagrams (1,000,000,000,000,000 grams) of carbon , and a new record of 9.7 ± 0.5 petagrams of carbon  is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, reaching a global average of 392.6 ppm for the year. In spring 2012, for the first time, the atmospheric CO2concentration exceeded 400 ppm at several Arctic observational sites. Cool temperature trends continue in Earth’s lower stratosphere: The average lower stratospheric temperature, about six to ten miles above the Earth’s surface, for 2012 was record to near-record cold, depending on the dataset. Increasing greenhouse gases and decline of stratospheric ozone tend to cool the stratosphere while warming the planet near-surface layers.

The 2012 State of the Climate report is peer-reviewed and published annually as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This year marks the 23rd edition of the report, which is part of the suite of climate services NOAA provides to government, the business sector, academia, and the public to support informed decision-making. The full report can be viewed online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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NOAA confirms wreck is lost 19th century U.S. Coast Survey steamer

August 27, 2013

In 1852, W.A.K. Martin painted this picture of the Robert J. Walker. The painting, now at the Mariner's Museum in Newport News, Virginia, is scheduled for restoration.

In 1852, W.A.K. Martin painted this picture of the Robert J. Walker. The painting, now at the Mariner's Museum in Newport News, Va., is scheduled for restoration.

High resolution (Credit: The Mariners' Museum)

More than 153 years after it was lost in a violent collision at sea, government and university maritime archaeologists have identified the wreck of the ship Robert J. Walker, a steamer that served in the U.S. Coast Survey, a predecessor agency of NOAA.

The Walker, while now largely forgotten, served a vital role as a survey ship, charting the Gulf Coast ? including Mobile Bay and the Florida Keys ? in the decade before the Civil War. It also conducted early work plotting the movement of the Gulf Stream along the Atlantic Coast.

Twenty sailors died when the Walker sank in rough seas in the early morning hours of June 21, 1860, ten miles off Absecon Inlet on the New Jersey coast. The crew had finished its latest surveys in the Gulf of Mexico and was sailing to New York when the Walker was hit by a commercial schooner off New Jersey. The side-wheel steamer, carrying 66 crewmembers, sank within 30 minutes. The sinking was the largest single loss of life in the history of the Coast Survey and its successor agency, NOAA.

Surveyers onboard NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson produced this multibeam sonar image of the Walker wreck.

Surveyers onboard NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson produced this multibeam sonar image of the Walker wreck.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“Before this identification was made, the wreck was just an anonymous symbol on navigation charts,” said Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “Now, we can truly honor the 20 members of the crew and their final resting place. It will mark a profound sacrifice by the men who served during a remarkable time in our history.”

Built in 1847, the Walker was one of the U.S. government’s first iron-hulled steamers, and was intended for the U.S. Revenue Service, the predecessor of the United States Coast Guard. Instead, the Walker and some of its sister steamers were sent to the U.S. Coast Survey.
Admiral Robert J. Papp, commandant of the Coast Guard, said that Walker represented the transition from sail to steam for government vessels, “reflecting the enduring need of the United States to harness the power of new technology to promote its maritime interests.”

“Coast Guardsmen are always saddened by the loss of life at sea and especially so when those lost were working to make the lives of other mariners safer by charting the waters of the United States,” Papp said.

Observations from NOAA's Maritime Heritage program's diving team confirmed the identity of the Walker wreck.

Observations from NOAA's Maritime Heritage program's diving team confirmed the identity of the Walker wreck.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The U.S. Coast Survey is NOAA’s oldest predecessor organization, established by President Thomas Jefferson in 1807 to survey the coast and produce the nation’s nautical charts. In 1860, as the Civil War approached, the Coast Survey redoubled efforts to produce surveys of harbors strategically important to the war effort along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

The New York Herald, in reporting the Walker’s loss on June 23, 1860, noted that a “heavy sea was running, and many of the men were doubtless washed off the spars and drowned from the mere exhaustion of holding on, while others were killed or stunned on rising to the surface by concussion with spars and other parts of the wreck.”

NOAA is able to confirm the identity of the Walker using various criteria, including the ship's unique paddlewheel flanges.

NOAA is able to confirm the identity of the Walker using various criteria, including the ship's unique paddlewheel flanges.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

The Walker wreck site initially was discovered in the 1970s by a commercial fisherman. The wreck's identity has been a mystery despite being regularly explored by divers. Resting 85 feet underwater, the vessel’s identity was confirmed in June as part of a private-public collaboration that included research provided by New Jersey wreck divers; Joyce Steinmetz, a maritime archaeology student at East Carolina University; and retired NOAA Corps Capt. Albert Theberge, chief of reference for the NOAA Central Library.

While in the area to conduct hydrographic surveys after Hurricane Sandy for navigation safety, NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson sailed to the wreck site and deployed its multibeam and sidescan sonar systems. Hydrographers searched likely locations based on analysis of historical research by Vitad Pradith, a physical scientist with NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey.

A NOAA Maritime Heritage diving team, on a separate Hurricane Sandy-related mission in the area, was able to positively identify the Walker. Key clues were the size and layout of the iron-hulled wreck, and its unique engines, rectangular portholes, and the location of the ship, which was found still pointing toward the Absecon lighthouse, the final destination of a desperate crew on a sinking vessel.

“The identification of Walker is a result of excellent collaboration with the local community,” said James P. Delgado, director of maritime heritage for NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. “We look forward to working with our local partners to share Walker’s story with the public in a manner that both promotes educational dive tourism and protects this nationally significant wreck and gravesite.”

NOAA’s intent is not to make the wreck a sanctuary or limit diving, but to work with New Jersey’s wreck diving community to better understand the wreck and the stories it can tell.

After a ceremony last month onboard NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson, Ensign Eileen Pye lays a wreath over the waters where USCS Robert J. Walker sank.

After a ceremony last month onboard NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson, Ensign Eileen Pye lays a wreath over the waters where USCS Robert J. Walker sank.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

“We want to enhance the dive experience and support the dive industry with enhanced access to this wreck,” Delgado said. “New Jersey is home to some of the most accomplished wreck divers who not only understand history and wrecks, but who have also been in the forefront of wreck exploration. We look forward to working with them on the Walker.”

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey is the nation’s nautical chartmaker. Coast Survey updates charts, surveys the coastal seafloor, responds to maritime emergencies, and searches for underwater obstructions that pose a danger to navigation. Follow Coast Survey on Twitter @nauticalcharts and check out the NOAA Coast Survey blog at for more in-depth coverage of surveying and charting.

NOAA’s Office of National Marine Sanctuaries serves as trustee for a system of 14 marine protected areas, encompassing more than 170,000 square miles of America’s ocean and Great Lakes waters. Through active research, management, and public engagement, national marine sanctuaries sustain healthy environments that are the foundation for thriving communities and stable economies. Follow Sanctuaries on Facebook and on Twitter @sanctuaries.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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