Arctic melt season lengthening, ocean rapidly warming

The length of the melt season for Arctic sea ice is growing by several days each decade, and an earlier start to the melt season is allowing the Arctic Ocean to absorb enough additional solar radiation in some places to melt as much as four feet of the Arctic ice cap's thickness, according to a new study by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA researchers.

Arctic sea ice has been in sharp decline during the last four decades. The sea ice cover is shrinking and thinning, making scientists think an ice-free Arctic Ocean during the summer might be reached this century. The seven lowest September sea ice extents in the satellite record have all occurred in the past seven years.

"The Arctic is warming and this is causing the melt season to last longer," said Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at NSIDC, Boulder and lead author of the new study, which has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. "The lengthening of the melt season is allowing for more of the sun's energy to get stored in the ocean and increase ice melt during the summer, overall weakening the sea ice cover."

To study the evolution of sea ice melt onset and freeze-up dates from 1979 to the present day, Stroeve's team used passive microwave data from NASA's Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer, and the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder carried onboard Defense Meteorological Satellite Program spacecraft.

When ice and snow begin to melt, the presence of water causes spikes in the microwave radiation that the snow grains emit, which these sensors can detect. Once the melt season is in full force, the microwave emissivity of the ice and snow stabilizes, and it doesn't change again until the onset of the freezing season causes another set of spikes. Scientists can measure the changes in the ice's microwave emissivity using a formula developed by Thorsten Markus, co-author of the paper and chief of the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

Results show that although the melt season is lengthening at both ends, with an earlier melt onset in the spring and a later freeze-up in the fall, the predominant phenomenon extending the melting is the later start of the freeze season. Some areas, such as the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, are freezing up between six and 11 days later per decade. But while melt onset variations are smaller, the timing of the beginning of the melt season has a larger impact on the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the ocean, because its timing coincides with when the sun is higher and brighter in the Arctic sky.

Despite large regional variations in the beginning and end of the melt season, the Arctic melt season has lengthened on average by five days per decade from 1979 to 2013.

Still, weather makes the timing of the autumn freeze-up vary a lot from year to year.

"There is a trend for later freeze-up, but we can't tell whether a particular year is going to have an earlier or later freeze-up," Stroeve said. "There remains a lot of variability from year to year as to the exact timing of when the ice will reform, making it difficult for industry to plan when to stop operations in the Arctic."

To measure changes in the amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean, the researchers looked at the evolution of sea surface temperatures and studied monthly surface albedo data (the amount of solar energy reflected by the ice and the ocean) together with the incoming solar radiation for the months of May through October. The albedo and sea surface temperature data the researchers used comes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's polar-orbiting satellites.

They found that the ice pack and ocean waters are absorbing more and more sunlight due both to an earlier opening of the waters and a darkening of the sea ice. The sea ice cover is becoming less reflective because it now mostly consists of thinner, younger ice, which is less reflective than the older ice that previously dominated the ice pack. Also, the young ice is flatter, allowing the dark melt ponds that form at the early stages of the melt season are able to spread more widely, further lowering its albedo.

The researchers calculated the increase in solar radiation absorbed by the ice and ocean for the period ranging from 2007 to 2011, which in some areas of the Arctic Ocean exceed 300 to 400 megajoules per square meter, or the amount of energy needed to thin the ice by an additional 3.1 to 4.2 feet (97 to 130 centimeters).

The increases in surface ocean temperatures, combined with a warming Arctic atmosphere due to climate change, explain the delayed freeze up in the fall.

"If air and ocean temperatures are similar, the ocean is not going to lose heat to the atmosphere as fast as it would when the differences are greater," said Linette Boisvert, co-author of the paper and a cryospheric scientist at Goddard. "In the last years, the upper ocean heat content is much higher than it used to be, so it's going to take a longer time to cool off and for freeze up to begin."

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Natural variation: Warm North Atlantic Ocean promotes extreme winters in U.S. and Europe

The extreme cold weather observed across Europe and the east coast of the US in recent winters could be partly down to natural, long-term variations in sea surface temperatures, according to a new study published today.

Researchers from the University of California Irvine have shown that a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) -- a natural pattern of variation in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures that switches between a positive and negative phase every 60-70 years -- can affect an atmospheric circulation pattern, known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that influences the temperature and precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere in winter.

When the AMO is in its positive phase and the sea surface temperatures are warmer, the study has shown that the main effect in winter is to promote the negative phase of the NAO which leads to "blocking" episodes over the North Atlantic sector, allowing cold weather systems to exist over the eastern US and Europe.

The results have been published today, Wednesday 2 April, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters.

To arrive at their results, the researchers combined observations from the past century with climate simulations of the atmospheric response to the AMO.

According to their observations, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic can be up to 1.5 ?C warmer in the Gulf Stream region during the positive phase of the AMO compared to the negative, colder phase. The climate simulations suggest that these specific anomalies in sea surface temperatures can play a predominant role in promoting the change in the NAO.

Lead authors of the study Yannick Peings and Gudrun Magnusdottir said: "Our results indicate that the main effect of the positive AMO in winter is to promote the occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO. A negative NAO in winter usually goes hand-in-hand with cold weather in the eastern US and north-western Europe."

The observations also suggest that it takes around 10-15 years before the positive phase of AMO has any significant effect on the NAO. The reason for this lag is unknown; however, an explanation might be that AMO phases take time to develop fully.

As the AMO has been in a positive phase since the early 1990s, it may have contributed to the extreme winters that both the US and Europe have experienced in recent years.

The researchers warn, however, that the future evolution of the AMO remains uncertain, with many factors potentially affecting how it interacts with atmospheric circulation patterns, such as Arctic sea ice loss, changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions and concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The AMO also shows strong variability from one year to the next in addition to the changes seen every 60 - 70 years, which makes it difficult to attribute specific extreme winters to the AMO's effects.

Responding to the extreme weather that gripped the eastern coast of the US this winter, Yannick Peings continued: "Unlike the 2012/2013 winter, this winter had rather low values of the AMO index and the pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies was not consistent with the typical positive AMO pattern. Moreover, the NAO was mostly positive with a relatively mild winter over Europe."

"Therefore it is unlikely that the positive AMO played a defining role on the east coast of the US, although further work is necessary to answer this question. Such an event is consistent with the large internal variability of the atmosphere, and other external forcings may have played a role.

"Our future studies will look to compare the role of the AMO compared to Arctic sea ice anomalies, which have also been shown to affect atmospheric circulation patterns and promote colder, more extreme winters."

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New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns

The world's oceans cover more than 72 percent of Earth's surface, impact a major part of the carbon cycle, and contribute to variability in global climate and weather patterns. However, accurately predicting the condition of the ocean is limited by current methods. Now, researchers at the University of Missouri have applied complex statistical models to increase the accuracy of ocean forecasting that can influence the ways in which forecasters predict long-range events such as El Nino and the lower levels of the ocean food chain -- one of the world's largest ecosystems.

"The ocean really is the most important part of the world's environmental system because of its potential to store carbon and heat, but also because of its ability to influence major atmospheric weather events such as droughts, hurricanes and tornados," said Chris Wikle, professor of statistics in the MU College of Arts and Science. "At the same time, it is essential in producing a food chain that is a critical part of the world's fisheries."

The vastness of the world's oceans makes predicting its changes a daunting task for oceanographers and climate scientists. Scientists must use direct observations from a limited network of ocean buoys and ships combined with satellite images of various qualities to create physical and biological models of the ocean. Wikle and Ralph Milliff, a senior research associate at the University of Colorado, adopted a statistical "Bayesian hierarchical model" that allows them to combine various sources of information as well as previous scientific knowledge. Their method helped improve the prediction of sea surface temperature extremes and wind fields over the ocean, which impact important features such as the frequency of tornadoes in tornado alley and the distribution of plankton in coastal regions -- a critical first stage of the ocean food chain.

"Nate Silver of The New York Times combined various sources of information to understand and better predict the uncertainty associated with elections," Wikle said. "So much like that, we developed more sophisticated statistical methods to combine various sources of data -- satellite images, data from ocean buoys and ships, and scientific experience -- to better understand the atmosphere over the ocean and the ocean itself. This led to models that help to better predict the state of the Mediterranean Sea, and the long-lead time prediction of El Nino and La Nina. Missouri, like most of the world, is affected by El Nino and La Nina (through droughts, floods and tornadoes) and the lowest levels of the food chain affect us all through its effect on Marine fisheries."

El Nino is a band of warm ocean water temperatures that periodically develops off the western coast of South America and can cause climatic changes across the Pacific Ocean and the U.S. La Nina is the counterpart that also affects atmospheric changes throughout the country. Wikle and his fellow researchers feel that, through better statistical methods and models currently in development, a greater understanding of these phenomena and their associated impacts will help forecasters better predict potentially catastrophic events, which will likely be increasingly important as our climate changes.

Wikle's study, "Uncertainty management in coupled physical-biological lower trophic level ocean ecosystem models," was funded in part by the National Science Foundation and was published in Oceanography and Statistical Science.

Cite This Page:

University of Missouri-Columbia. "New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 18 March 2014. .University of Missouri-Columbia. (2014, March 18). New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns. ScienceDaily. Retrieved April 19, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318154927.htmUniversity of Missouri-Columbia. "New statistical models could lead to better predictions of ocean patterns." ScienceDaily. www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318154927.htm (accessed April 19, 2014).

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Ocean and coastal observing technology efforts awarded $27.2 million

September 30, 2013

IOOS is a federal, regional, and private-sector partnership working to enhance our ability to collect, deliver, and use ocean information.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA is awarding $27.2 million to sustain current critical ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes observing efforts and to support innovative marine sensor technologies, with a goal of helping us better understand our coastal and marine environment. The funding is provided through the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®), other federal agencies, and NOAA programs.

“IOOS brings federal and regional ocean observations together to give decision-makers the critical data they need to save lives and build their communities,” said Zdenka Willis, U.S. IOOS program director. “These awards will sustain those observations, and speed the transition of new promising technologies into the ocean, where they can serve our coastal communities day in and day out.”

Highlights of the awards

This year’s awards include $2.9 million for marine sensor innovation projects to enhance our understanding of the coastal and marine environment.  

$1 million to the Southeastern Universities Research Association to make operational the U.S. IOOS Coastal and Ocean Modeling Testbed, an infrastructure for the testing and improvement of non-federal and federal models and prediction tools;

$1 million to the Alliance for Coastal Technologies for technology transfer and accelerating development of promising new marine observing technologies;

$340,000 provided through the Northeast IOOS Regional Association in support of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute and McLane Industries efforts to transition cutting-edge observing platforms monitoring the emergence of harmful algal blooms and improve harmful algal bloom forecasts in the Gulf of Maine;

$574,000 to fund projects in five IOOS Western regional associations. These projects will develop ocean acidification sensor technology to support West Coast and Alaska shellfish industry monitoring needs, improve measurements of the state of ocean acidification in the Pacific Islands, and develop workforce capacity to work with ocean acidification sensors.

In addition to the marine sensor innovation projects introduced this year, the U.S. IOOS awarded $24.3 million to sustain critical coastal, ocean, and Great Lakes efforts.  As part of this effort, the U.S. IOOS Program and NASA will continue to jointly fund, at $250,000 each per year, projects to improve satellite sea surface temperature data from existing and new sensors, produce a blended output of sea surface temperature data from U.S. and international datasets, and target these products for coastal applications and regional IOOS usage. The total breakdown of the $27.2 million is:

Alaska Ocean Observing System ($2.2 million)

Alliance for Coastal Technologies ($1 million)

Caribbean Regional Association ($1.6 million)

Central and Northern California Ocean Observing System ($2.3 million)

Gulf of Mexico Coastal Observing System ($1.5 million)

Great Lakes Observing System ($1.6 million)

Mid-Atlantic Regional Association for Coastal Ocean Observing Systems ($3 million)

Multi-sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature ($500,000)

Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems ($3.1 million)

Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal Ocean Observing Systems ($2.4 million)

Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System ($2.2 million)

Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System ($2.3 million)

Southeastern Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association ($2.5 million)

Southeastern Universities Research Association ($1 million)

Funding supports NOAA's efforts to develop a national IOOS for tracking, predicting, managing and adapting to changes in the marine environment. IOOS delivers data and information needed to increase understanding of the Nation’s waters to improve safety, enhance the economy, and protect our environment.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

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First-ever National Forum to shape a U.S. national ocean exploration program

July 18, 2013

'Ocean Exploration 2020: A National Forum,' will bring together more than 100 ocean explorers and representatives from federal agencies, state governments, non-governmental organizations, universities, ocean institutions and leading industries to shape a U.S. national ocean exploration program. The Forum, to be held at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach, July 19-21, will gather experts with the aim of developing a national program that will be fully implemented by 2020.

"The expertise and imagination that will come together at the Forum is exciting," said Robert Detrick, Ph.D., assistant administrator for NOAA Research, and a Forum speaker. "Partnerships will be the key to developing and following-through on a national ocean exploration program that truly makes a difference. Partnerships leverage the funding, equipment, and expertise required to significantly advance the nation's ocean-related scientific, economic, environmental and educational goals."

Forum participants include ocean explorers and ocean resource managers as well as educators, project managers, technologists, information managers and entrepreneurs who will share their ideas for taking the nation's ocean exploration program where it should be in 2020.

"It is an honor that we are co-hosting the Forum that will define the future of ocean exploration and lead to the nation's national ocean exploration program," said Jerry Schubel, Ph.D., president and CEO of the Aquarium of the Pacific.

The first two days of the Forum are by invitation and will involve presentations, panel discussions and breakout sessions covering themes such as exploration priorities, technology, platforms, data and information management and sharing, citizen science and exploration, ocean exploration, and public engagement.

The final day, Sunday, July 21, is Explorers Day and is open to the public. A number of explorers from the Forum will remain to meet with the public to explain their ocean exploration work and to answer questions about ocean exploration robots and other equipment on display. This event is part of the Aquarium of the Pacific's ongoing Ocean Exploration program and Wonders of the Deep exhibit, which launched May 24, 2013.

Explorers Day will also feature demonstrations, workshops, and live interactive engagements with explorers at sea on 'America's ship for ocean exploration,' NOAA Ship Okeanos Explorer; with explorers on the Schmidt Ocean Institute's Research Vessel Falkor; and with Dr. Robert Ballard's team on the Ocean Exploration Trust's Exploration Vessel Nautilus.

Forum partners include NOAA, the Aquarium of the Pacific, the Global Foundation for Ocean Exploration, the Schmidt Ocean Institute, Google, Inc., the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Esri, NASA, the National Geographic Society, the National Research Foundation, the Ocean Exploration Trust, The Roddenberry Foundation, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Department of State. Others from governmental and non-governmental organizations will participate and during the first two days, and members of the public will participate as 'citizen explorers' online, adding  their voices in shaping the nation's ocean exploration program.

Except for breakout sessions, live streaming video will be available from the Forum at http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/oceanexploration2020/welcome.html. That website also offers more information about the Forum, including how the public may participate in the dialogue, as well as details about the event's partners, agenda, speakers, and related news.

Five breakout sessions are planned-four in-person and one online-each with the same assignment: to outline a 10-to-15-step plan to create a distinctive, distinguished, and inclusive National Ocean Exploration Program in 2020 that considers all ocean exploration stakeholders. Forum participants will then work to reduce and combine elements of the five plans into an ocean exploration vision and plan for a national program, including a strategy for meeting plan goals.

NOAA's Office of Ocean Exploration and Research explores the ocean for the purpose of discovery and the advancement of knowledge. To learn more, visit http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/.

NOAA's mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook and our other social media channels. Visit our news release archive. 

The nonprofit Aquarium of the Pacific is a leader in ocean exploration education, bringing current ocean exploration and research initiatives to the forefront and connecting the public to scientists and explorers daily. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and our other social media channels.

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Indian Ocean earthquakes triggered quakes globally

AP

Residents flee to higher ground after tsunami warnings April 11. A quake off Indonesia's western coast shook this Thai province of Phuket.

AP

Residents flee to higher ground after tsunami warnings April 11. A quake off Indonesia's western coast shook this Thai province of Phuket.

Giant earthquakes that rocked the Indian Ocean in April had global effects, triggering sizable quakes off the Oregon and Mexican coasts and elsewhere, geologists reported Wednesday.

The undersea quakes on April 11, which measured magnitude 8.6 and 8.2, struck about 300 miles southwest of Indonesia's Aceh province. The larger quake was among the 20 most powerful recorded in the past century, and the pair triggered tsunami warnings around the Indian Ocean. Those were soon canceled when only small waves washed onto coastal beaches. But their effects now appear to have been more far-reaching, an idea once seen as unlikely by geologists.

"The energy from the earthquakes radiated sideways around the planet and likely triggered many more events," says Fred Pollitz of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif. He led the analysis in the journal Nature, which looked for links between the quakes April 11 and the jump in quakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger seen worldwide in the days afterward. The number was five times higher than normal.

The Indonesia quakes were so-called slip-strike quakes in which portions of the Earth's crust slide sideways against each other. The unusual sideways motion of the quakes April 11 prevented them from raising large tsunami waves but appears to have more efficiently sent the "ground waves" they created traveling worldwide. Normally, aftershocks or quakes triggered by large quakes are contained within a relatively local zone.

"Essentially, we're seeing here the entire globe become an aftershock zone of these two earthquakes," says seismologist Aaron Velasco of the University of Texas-El Paso, who was not part of the study. " A decade ago we would have laughed at thinking there was a connection, but we see pretty clear links in this case."

One related quake was the magnitude-7.0 quake that struck in the Gulf of California on April 12. The study says the odds are 1 in 300 of a swarm of quakes like that one happening by chance so soon after the Indian Ocean events. These triggered quakes fell most heavily in regions that seismological measures show were the most stressed by ground waves from the quakes April 11.

Earthquake experts hotly debate a possible link between the magnitude-9.1 Indian Ocean earthquake in 2004 that killed 230,000 people and a large increase in quakes since, says Georgia Tech earthquake expert Zhigang Peng. The triggered events seen from the quakes April 11 don't settle that debate, he says, but the analysis "provides a hope for scientists to search for further evidence, or lack of evidence, to link those great earthquakes."

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Indian Ocean earthquakes triggered quakes globally

AP

Residents flee to higher ground after tsunami warnings April 11. A quake off Indonesia's western coast shook this Thai province of Phuket.

AP

Residents flee to higher ground after tsunami warnings April 11. A quake off Indonesia's western coast shook this Thai province of Phuket.

Giant earthquakes that rocked the Indian Ocean in April had global effects, triggering sizable quakes off the Oregon and Mexican coasts and elsewhere, geologists reported Wednesday.

The undersea quakes on April 11, which measured magnitude 8.6 and 8.2, struck about 300 miles southwest of Indonesia's Aceh province. The larger quake was among the 20 most powerful recorded in the past century, and the pair triggered tsunami warnings around the Indian Ocean. Those were soon canceled when only small waves washed onto coastal beaches. But their effects now appear to have been more far-reaching, an idea once seen as unlikely by geologists.

"The energy from the earthquakes radiated sideways around the planet and likely triggered many more events," says Fred Pollitz of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif. He led the analysis in the journal Nature, which looked for links between the quakes April 11 and the jump in quakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger seen worldwide in the days afterward. The number was five times higher than normal.

The Indonesia quakes were so-called slip-strike quakes in which portions of the Earth's crust slide sideways against each other. The unusual sideways motion of the quakes April 11 prevented them from raising large tsunami waves but appears to have more efficiently sent the "ground waves" they created traveling worldwide. Normally, aftershocks or quakes triggered by large quakes are contained within a relatively local zone.

"Essentially, we're seeing here the entire globe become an aftershock zone of these two earthquakes," says seismologist Aaron Velasco of the University of Texas-El Paso, who was not part of the study. " A decade ago we would have laughed at thinking there was a connection, but we see pretty clear links in this case."

One related quake was the magnitude-7.0 quake that struck in the Gulf of California on April 12. The study says the odds are 1 in 300 of a swarm of quakes like that one happening by chance so soon after the Indian Ocean events. These triggered quakes fell most heavily in regions that seismological measures show were the most stressed by ground waves from the quakes April 11.

Earthquake experts hotly debate a possible link between the magnitude-9.1 Indian Ocean earthquake in 2004 that killed 230,000 people and a large increase in quakes since, says Georgia Tech earthquake expert Zhigang Peng. The triggered events seen from the quakes April 11 don't settle that debate, he says, but the analysis "provides a hope for scientists to search for further evidence, or lack of evidence, to link those great earthquakes."

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Indian Ocean tsunami warning system tested (AP)

JAKARTA, Indonesia – Nations along the Indian Ocean are testing a U.N.-backed early tsunami warning system put in place after the massive 2004 wave off western Indonesia that left more than 230,000 people dead or missing.

Wednesday's exercise — the first full-scale test of the system — tested communication and emergency response. Evacuation drills were held in India and Malaysia, with bulletins sent by telephone, email, SMS and fax to more than 20 countries taking part.

The switch was flipped by officials at Indonesia's Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency at 8:05 a.m. — the same time a magnitude-9.2 earthquake triggered a tsunami on Dec. 26, 2004, that barreled into a dozen nations.

The agency said the test would last until 8 p.m. and that no glitches were immediately detected.

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Hurricane Irwin forms in Pacific Ocean (AP)

MIAMI – Forecasters say Irwin has been upgraded to a hurricane in the Pacific Ocean, becoming the eighth hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami says early Friday that Irwin had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 kph) and was centered about 910 miles (1,460 km) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

It is moving west-northwest at 10 mph (17 kph).

There are currently no coastal watches or warnings in effect from the storm.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Jova was continuing to gradually strengthen in the Pacific. It had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph) and was centered about 520 miles (835 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. It was moving west-northwest at 12 mph (19 kph). Jova could become a hurricane by Saturday.

In the Atlantic, Hurricane Philippe was far off the U.S. coast and was not expected to threaten land.

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