Climate Lottery- Ranking For October 2012

The lottery pick (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for October 2012 came up as 44, the 44th coldest ranking on record for the lower 48 states for any October since 1895. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings due to global warming, but October was a "gotcha" month since below average temperature rankings occurred for most of the lower 48 states. Some contrarians will point to the cool month as proof that global warming may not be occurring, yet I will contend that due to the warming an overall cool season across the U.S. will be a rare event. So far, for the contest of fall 2012 Dr. Jeff Masters and I tied for the best picks for October, which was 85...good going, Jeff! Our picks were too warm, overall, for the month, but they were the lowest of everyone who played.

October 2012 was a good example of how the atmosphere can line up to produce cooler than average conditions for a large geographical area, such as the continental U.S. despite an overall warming trend across the planet due to man induced climate change. One huge event did occur at the end of the month, which many climatologists attribute to climate change: Hurricane Sandy. For more on Sandy see Andrew Freedman's post from Climate Central at:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-global-warming-made-hurricane-sandy-worse-15190

In October the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 44 (out of 118):

The jet stream was oriented such that cool air masses penetrated through the nation's mid-section with warmer than average temperatures occurring in the West and Northeast. The overall raking for the U.S. came up as 44...slightly below the average of 59... and a "black" or neutral number as rankings go. Looking at the map you can pick out each individual state ranking. Again the overall ranking of 44 is not an average of the 48 individual state rankings; rather the ranking is a comparison of temperature averages for the lower 48 states for each October since 1895.

Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on my previous posts.
The average ranking for 2012 is 59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 38 blue and all those at or above 79 red with rankings + or -- 19 from the median value of 59 black.

For a reference to my last "Climate Dice" post see: http://www.weather.com/news/climate-dice-sixth-roll-20120912

November 2012 has started out on the warm side, despite winter storms occurring in the West and in the Northeast. As of this writing across the U.S. 725 daily record highs have been either set or tied while only 148 stations have set or tied daily record lows for the month of November. We'll see if this trend goes on for the rest of the fall, or if the overall warmth of this year continues.

Guy Walton...."That Climate Guy"
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel

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Does October Snow Signal A Wild Winter Ahead? (LiveScience.com)

Between a second impending snowstorm in Denver and last weekend's 'Snowtober' storm in the Northeast, there's been a lot of early show across the United States. With so much snow so soon, it may seem like we're in for a long, snowy winter. But don't panic yet, weather forecasters say.

"There's no correlation or patterns that we're aware of that correlate October snow storms and how brutal a winter will be," said Carl Erickson, meteorologist with AccuWeather.

Erickson said this winter's forecast shows the main storm track focusing more to the west than last season. The big cities along the I-95 corridor should see a fairly typical winter, with a few big snow events, but nothing like two years ago where the East Coast had big snowstorms every few weeks. This year the Great Lakes region, including Chicago and much of Indiana will see the heavy snows.

Unfortunately, the Southwest and Southern Plains aren't likely to see any relief from the extreme drought conditions they have experienced this year, with warmer and drier than normal conditions expected to continue through the winter.

As a result of the Snowtober storm, more than 2 million people lost power and the storm has been blamed for at least 13 deaths. New York City set an October snow record with 2.9 inches (7.4 centimeters) accumulating, and towns in western Massachusetts piled up more than 30 inches (76 cm) of snow.

The historic nor'easter was the remnants of a storm that brought an October snow oddity to Denver earlier last week. The city went from a record daily high of 80 degrees Fahrenheit (27 degrees Celsius) to several inches of snow in 24 hours.

For the Frontal Range, the October snow, as wild of a weather swing as it was, isn't all that unusual, said Matthew Kelsch, a hydrometeorologist at the University Corp. of Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colo.

And that wild weather swing that is repeating today.

"Now we're seeing much of the east quieting down and more activity firing up across the Rockies," Erickson told OurAmazingPlanet.

The latest storm is already moving through the region today (Nov. 1). Snow is starting to accumulate in Wyoming and a blizzard warning has been issued for the south side of Denver tonight. The temperature was 74 F (23 C) yesterday and now the region is expecting 10 inches (25 cm)of snow. [The Snowiest Places on Earth]

"That's the continental climate for you," Kelsch said.

You can follow OurAmazingPlanet staff writer Brett Israel on Twitter: @btisrael. Follow OurAmazingPlanet for the latest in Earth science and exploration news on Twitter @OAPlanet and on Facebook.

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Thousands remain without power week after October snowstorm (Reuters)

BOSTON (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of homes remained in the dark on Sunday a week after a historic snowstorm paralyzed the Northeast and cut power to more than three million customers.

In Connecticut, more than 112,000 Connecticut Light & Power customers were still in the dark.

Governor Dannel Malloy said the power company was not going to meet its goal of 99 percent restoration in each city and town by midnight on Sunday.

Malloy has called for an investigation into the massive and lengthy power outages that peaked at more than 830,000 customers statewide without heat and electricity during the monster October snowstorm.

"As soon as everyone's lights are back on, we need to have a very timely, thorough review of the power companies' performances, to identify what went wrong, why it went wrong, and most importantly identify solutions for the short-term before the next winter storm impacts Connecticut," said Malloy in a statement.

The deadly snowstorm that barreled through the Northeast last weekend and dumped more than two feet of snow in parts of the region has been blamed for well over a dozen deaths.

In Masssachusetts, where about 11,000 customers remained in the dark, Attorney General Martha Coakley has also called for a formal investigation of the power companies' restoration efforts.

A couple thousand customers were still without power in New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

Power restoration crews were aided by dry and sunny weather over the weekend expected to continue into the upcoming week.

Temperatures across the Northeast were forecast to climb into the 60s by Tuesday, according to AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Tom Kines.

Some areas may reach 70 degrees on Tuesday or Wednesday, possibly challenging record highs, he said.

(Editing by Jerry Norton)

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Britain has hottest October day on record (AP)

LONDON – Britain has experienced the hottest October day on record.

National weather service the Met Office says Saturday's temperature reached 85.8 F (29.9 C) at Gravesend in southeast England.

That is the highest October temperature since records began a century ago, beating the previous high of 84.9 F (29.4 C) reached on Oct. 4, 1985.

The average maximum temperature for early October is about 59 F (15 C).

After a cool and wet summer, much of Britain has been basking in several days of sun and unseasonably high temperatures. Forecasters say cooler temperatures should return by Tuesday.

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