Gear up for flood risk this spring

The risk of flooding is rising nationwide as snow melt from heavy winter weather mixes with anticipated spring rains. Minor flooding is already reported in some areas of the country, including the Florida panhandle, Indiana and Illinois, and the National Weather Service predicts minor flooding across large areas of the Midwest and South, with heavier flooding likely in the upper Midwest and along the lower Mississippi River valley.

"Flooding can occur quickly, and we need to prepare for it, just as we need to prepare for other weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes," said Sarah Nafziger, M.D., an emergency medicine physician at the University of Alabama at Birmingham and assistant state emergency medical services medical director for the Alabama Department of Public Health.

Nafziger says keeping informed is the key to staying safe during flooding events. Know your risk, pay attention to media reports, and have a plan.

"If flooding is expected in your area, plan an escape route that leads to higher ground, and prepare an emergency kit with first aid supplies and medicine, batteries, water, flashlights, and nonperishable food," she said. "Charge your electronic devices, and be ready to flee."

Nafziger says the National Weather Service website is a good source for additional recommendations before, during and after flooding; these include avoiding flood waters, heeding road closings and cautionary signs, and waiting for an official "all clear" before returning to a flooded area.

"The aftermath of flood can be just as dangerous as the actual flooding, with disease, electrical hazards and even displaced animals as threats," Nafziger said.

View the original article here

Climate Dice- The Fifth Roll: Lottery Numbers For Spring 2012

Oh my!...The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for spring 2012 came up as 118...the warmest on record since 1895 for the lower 48 states. Just think about what the chances of that highest ranking are without the warming trend occurring across the planet...one in 118. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings due to man induced global warming.

The National Climatic Data Center has finished processing the rankings for spring 2012 for the lower 48 states. So, for everyone who participated in my third lottery contest, the numbers were: 118/116/117 for MAR/APR/MAY 2012with an overall Power Ball ranking for the season of 118. Just like summer and fall 2011 and winter 2012 not even one month was below average.

The winner was Mark Couvillion, who came closest to picking the correct numbers. His picks were 115/112/110 with a "power ball" ranking of 114 for MAR/APR/MAY 2012. Good going Mark. Incidentally, Mark's guesses were the highest (warmest rankings) for the few people who made lottery picks.

Well, let's play the lottery again. I wonder if we will ever see in the future a "gotcha" set of three months when temperatures are below average for an entire season across the lower 48 states? Just like last time pick three numbers between 1 and 118 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 118 being the highest possible ranking) for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012. Also pick a "Power Ball" or overall ranking number for summer 2012 between 1 and 118. Please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by July 1st. I'll announce another winner shortly after the National Climatic Data Center processes averages on my next post around September the 10th. My forecast for this summer is for averages across the U.S. to continue to be warm but not as horrifically hot as they were the last couple of years. Also we are "due" to see at least one below average month during the summer. I won't be shocked, at all though again, if just like last summer, fall, winter, and this spring not one single month of summer is below average. The last few posts I have been way under forecasting the observed warmth across the U.S. each season...I guess I'm just an eternal optimist. There are indications that June will be warmer than average but not at the high end of the rankings.

For reference the following are links to my first four posts:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26102.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25602.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_23192.html?from=blog_permalink_month

Once again, the spring season, as a whole, was above long term averages with no individual month below average; and thus, having above average rankings. I'll reiterate once more (I know that this is getting repetitive) that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I'm not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another below average season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change...and they were very skewed towards warmth this spring. As stated in my fourth post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What happened over the winter and spring is yet more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States. On this blog I'll be a bit briefer than the last few posts. Essentially the meteorological reason for the warmth was a strong upper ridge persisting through much of the spring across the U.S. leading to anomalously warm conditions except along the immediate West Coast.

Here's a breakdown of the National Climatic Center's ranking numbers for each month of the spring:

In March the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 118 (out of 118):

The only comment I'll write about this month is wow! I have never in nearly 30 years of forecasting seen such an anomalously warm month. Twenty-five states had their all-time warmest March. Many of you will recall how warm the month was with flora and fauna responding to the warmth by blooming too soon. Only the state of Washington was below average.

In April the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 116 (out of 118):

Relative to March April was cooler, particularly in the Midwest; nevertheless, April 2012 was the third warmest April on record since 1895.

In May the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 117 (out of 118) making that month the second warmest May in recorded history.

The overall ranking for spring 2012 was 118....the warmest spring in recorded history.

Thirty one of the U.S. states had their warmest spring in recorded history, which was simply amazing.

Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last three posts. The average ranking for 2012 is
59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings below 49 blue and all those above 69 red with rankings + or -- 10 from the median value of 59 black.

The following are the rankings so far for the 2010's:

Also, for reference, the following are "Power-Ball" and "Mega-Ball" ranking numbers for 2000 to the present:

Please see my prior posts for more charts dating back to 1900 for reference. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.

Notice that since the start of 2000 only four out of sixty two seasons have been below average or "blue". Fifty three out of the sixty two seasons since 2000 have been "red" or above average. Indeed as stated in the last post, the climate dice are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history

Well, that's it for this post. I just hope that summer 2012 is not as torrid as that of 2011, particularly in Texas and Oklahoma.

Click here to leave a comment and play the climate lottery.

Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel

View the original article here

Spring in America: Ogunquit, Maine

John Angelone sent us this shot of the view off Marginal Way in Ogunquit, Maine.

We will be posting the last of our spring photos over the next couple of weeks and are gearing up for summer photos.

So break out the cameras and send us a shot of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Meadville, Pa.

A crab apple tree in Meadville, Pa., turned into a new home for a family of robins. "I was blessed to this get this picture from a swing on my front porch," Linda Watt says.

We will be posting the last of our spring photos over the next couple of weeks and are gearing up for summer photos.

So break out the cameras and send us a shot of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Coventry, R.I.

These mallard ducklings are feeding in a marsh under the watchful eye of their mother not far from my home in Coventry, R.I., says the photographer, Ron Ylitalo.

We will be posting the last of our spring photos over the next couple of weeks and are gearing up for summer photos.

So break out the cameras and send us a summer shot from your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Bloomfield, Mich.

Kim Austin, of Bloomfield, Mich., says this is the second year that the same two swans have chosen this small pond for their home.

"As one sits on the nest, the other swims around feeding and keeping the geese out of their territory," Austin says.

Please send us a photo from your area. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this spring, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

4. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

5. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Austin

David Evans took this picture of agave in an April walk through the Lady Bird Johnson Wildflower Center in Austin.

Please send us a photo from your area. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this spring, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

4. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

5. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Fieldbrook, Calif.

Joan Binnie took this shot of tulips in her front yard in Fieldbrook, Calif.

Please send us a photo from your area. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this spring, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

4. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

5. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Spring in America: Scottsdale, Ariz.

"This large old Saguaro is located across the street," says the photographer, Cameron Davis. "Usually the flowers are inaccessible at the tops of the giant plants, fortunately this flower and buds are located on a rare low growing branch."

Please send us a photo from your area. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this spring, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

4. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

5. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Back go reality: warm winter will give way to typical spring, Weather network

TORONTO - Arctic winds may have given way to balmy breezes across most of Canada this winter, but the Weather Network is predicting the country will spring back to reality in the coming months.

Temperatures in most provinces are expected to be right in line with seasonal norms over the next three months, with only British Columbia projected to feel some lingering chill.

The network's spring weather outlook is also calling for more variability in precipitation, both forecasting a soggy few months in Central Canada while raising the spectre of water shortages on the west coast.

Such contradictions are par for the course during a season with a reputation for volatility. After the sort of winter Canadians have just experienced, however, network meteorologist Chris Scott said a typical spring may seem jarring.

"The biggest story this year has been the warmth," Scott said in a telephone interview.

"When you look right from east to west, we've seen most major cities had a winter that ranks in the top 10 in terms of warmest on record."

A weather phenomenon known as the Arctic Oscillation saw the usually active jet stream stay relatively stationary over northern Canada, effectively blocking most of the cold air from flowing to the rest of the country over the past three months.

As a result, Scott said Regina enjoyed its third warmest winter since 1883, while Toronto basked in the sort of temperatures only seen once more since 1840.

B.C. alone was exempt from the nationwide thaw, Scott said, adding it will continue to buck the seasonal trend expected to emerge through March, April and may.

The province is expected to see temperatures linger below seasonal norms, joining the Yukon and Northwest Territories among areas not reaping the full benefits of spring.

Elsewhere in the country, Scott forecasted above average temperatures through March giving way to more typical conditions for the rest of the season. Only northwestern Ontario, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are on track for a warmer than usual spring, he said.

Even if temperatures follow their typical course, Scott said Canadians may not realize it.

"If you've already been mild, and then you're not going to get as mild relative to normal, it may not seem like spring is coming the same as it often does," he said.

While temperatures are expected to be fairly consistent, the precipitation forecast is much more varied.

Scott said most of Ontario and Quebec should brace for a soggier season than usual, while the Maritimes can look forward to precipitation levels within the average range.

It's a different story across the prairies and southern Alberta, he said, adding the forecast is calling for a dryer than usual season.

Lack of moisture could cause problems for the region's agriculture and increase the risk of summer forest fires, he cautioned.

"It's a little bit too soon to say that we're into a bad situation on either of those counts, but this is a big potential that we'll have to watch just because we've gone through a very dry stretch of weather," Scott said.

One thing weather-watchers can count on is the spring tradition of thwarting expectations.

Scott said the season defined by both winter air masses and warm-weather systems can be relied upon to provide a few surprises.

"It's a pretty great time to be in the weather business because there's always something to talk about."

View the original article here

Disastrous spring costing Mo. billions of dollars (AP)

By DAVID A. LIEB, Associated Press David A. Lieb, Associated Press – 54 mins ago

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. – First a tornado tore through the St. Louis airport. Then rising waters swamped small towns and flooded miles of fertile farmland along the Mississippi River. Then the nation's deadliest tornado in six decades ripped apart the city of Joplin.

Thirty days of destruction in Missouri. Billions of dollars of damage. And it may not be done, as communities along the Missouri River from St. Joseph to St. Louis brace for a new round of flooding.

The economic aftershocks of Missouri's spring of disasters may be felt for years, even by many who weren't personally affected by the storms. Insurance premiums are likely to increase for home and vehicle owners. Restaurants and retail shops are likely to see lower sales in southeast Missouri. Utility rates are likely to rise in the southwestern part of the state. And Missouri's budget — already out of balance — now is tens of millions of dollars deeper in the hole, which could lead to more cuts to government services and schools.

"It's not just the loss of lives, but this is a horrible economic blow to the state of Missouri," said state House Speaker Steven Tilley, a Republican whose home district is near the Mississippi River.

Missouri may be an extreme example. But it's far from alone in a spring of brutal weather.

Tornadoes have wreaked havoc from Alabama to Massachusetts, while floods have inundated states from Montana to Louisiana. The recent Joplin tornado and a series of twisters that ravaged the South in late April caused a combined insurance loss of up to $8 billion, according to preliminary estimates from Eqecat, a firm that analyzes the effect of catastrophes for insurers and government agencies.

Even before the recent flooding in the West and upper Midwest, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said about 6.8 million acres had been flooded this year — an area equivalent to the entire state of Massachusetts.

One recent day, highway engineer Richard Wallace drove his four-wheel drive truck down the gravel of Mississippi County Road 310 in southeast Missouri to survey the damage from receding floodwaters. He was forced to stop.

"I'm looking at a section right now that looks like part of the Grand Canyon," said an amazed Wallace, staring at a gaping crevice in the road. "It's just unreal."

In Mississippi County, where the corps blew open the Birds Point levee to relieve flooding pressure on nearby Cairo, Ill., local officials estimated the water may have caused $75 million in damage to roads, bridges and public infrastructure. Flooding also wiped out about half of the county's farm acreage — a particularly severe blow for an area that ranks among Missouri's leading wheat and soybean producers and whose economy depends on agriculture. Missouri Farm Bureau President Blake Hurst says 570,000 acres of cropland have been flooded, costing Missouri farmers anywhere from $150 million to $400 million.

Less money for farmers also means less money for retailers, restaurant owners and just about everyone else in the region. The flooding is projected to reduce sales revenues by $93 million in Mississippi County alone — a decline of about 14 percent, said Bruce Domazlicky, director of the Center for Economic and Business Research at Southeast Missouri State University.

"You'll think twice before you buy something for yourself, you'll think twice before you buy a wedding present, you'll think twice before you buy a steak," said Claudia Arington, director of the Charleston Chamber of Commerce.

In Joplin, a powerful tornado that killed at least 138 people also damaged about 18,000 vehicles, more than 8,000 homes and 500 commercial properties. Among the buildings damaged was a hospital that employed 1,700 people.

Ten days after the Joplin tornado, the state said major insurance companies already had received 17,000 claims, a figure that's likely to rise. Eqecat estimates there are up to $3 billion of insured losses in Joplin. Historically, insurance premiums often have risen in areas hit by catastrophic events as insurers update their risk models used to set rates.

Until the Joplin tornado, Missouri's single largest insurance catastrophe in the past decade was an April 2001 hail storm in the St. Louis area that caused about $700 million in damage, said Brent Butler, government affairs director for the Missouri Insurance Coalition. In the following two years, the average homeowners' insurance premium in Missouri shot up 29 percent, according to figures provided by the state insurance department.

The Joplin tornado "could have an effect on everybody's insurance rates eventually — but it will be eventually, and I wouldn't call it dramatic," Butler said.

If tornadoes result in premium increases for hard-hit states such as Missouri and Alabama, "the good thing is, because everybody is going to pay more, maybe it's not much more," said Erwann Michel-Kerjan, managing director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

Electricity rates also are likely to rise as a result of the tornado. The Empire Electric District Co, which serves about 150,000 people in southwest Missouri, figures the tornado caused $20 million to $30 million in damage to its infrastructure and wiped out 10 percent to 15 percent of customer demand for electricity.

Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon already has committed $50 million to help pay for the emergency response to the Joplin tornado and southeast Missouri floods, along with recovery efforts. But that will nearly double the state's projected budget gap for the fiscal year that starts July 1. And Nixon has said the state's disaster expenses will have to be offset by cuts to other areas. Those cuts will come on top of more than $1 billion in spending reductions already made by Nixon in the past two-and-a-half years.

There is a potential bright spot. The disasters could spur a revival for some dormant job sectors, such as construction, once people begin rebuilding.

"You're going to have actually a pretty good pickup in the local economy because of that," Domazlicky said. "That's not to downplay what happened, but it is going to provide a stimulus to that economy in terms of getting people to work."

View the original article here