Summer no sweat for Aussies but winter freeze fatal

Australians are more likely to die during unseasonably cold winters than hotter than average summers, QUT research has found.

Across the country severe winters that are colder and drier than normal are a far bigger risk to health than sweltering summers that are hotter than average.

QUT Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, a statistician with the Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and the lead researcher of the study, said death rates in Australian cities were up to 30 per cent higher in winter than summer.

The researchers analyzed temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for Adelaide Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.

Professor Barnett said the finding that hotter or more humid summers had no effect on mortality was "surprising."

"We know that heatwaves kill people in the short-term, but our study did not find any link between hotter summers and higher deaths," he said.

"The increase in deaths during colder winter could be because Australians are well-prepared for whatever summer throws at them, but are less able to cope with cold weather. There isn't the same focus on preparing for cold weather as there is for hot weather, for example through public health campaigns or even wearing the right sort of clothes.

"The strongest increase in deaths during a colder winter was in Brisbane, the city with the warmest climate, with an extra 59 deaths a month on average for a one degree decrease in mean winter temperature."

"Brisbane has the mildest winter of the five cities but has the greatest vulnerability. We believe this is because most homes are designed to lose heat in summer, which also allows cold outdoor air to get inside during winter."

Professor Barnett said the findings of the study, published in the journal Environmental Research, could trigger more prevention programs to help reduce the future burden on the health system.

"Excess winter deaths have a significant impact on health systems across Australia," he said.

"There are extra demands on doctors, hospitals and emergency departments in winter months, especially for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases which are triggered by exposure to cold weather.

"Our findings show the winter increases in mortality are predictable so ramping up public health measures, such as influenza vaccinations and insulating homes, particularly for vulnerable groups, should be considered to try to reduce the impact of severe winters."

Journal Reference:

Cunrui Huang, Cordia Chu, Xiaoming Wang, Adrian G. Barnett. Unusually cold and dry winters increase mortality in Australia. Environmental Research, 2015; 136: 1 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.046

View the original article here

Seasonal Arctic summer ice extent still hard to forecast, study says

Will next year's summer Arctic ice extent be high or low? Can ship captains plan on navigating the famed Northwest Passage -- a direct shipping route from Europe to Asia across the Arctic Ocean -- to save on time and fuel? A new study says year-to-year forecasts of the Arctic's summer ice extent are not yet reliable.

Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 years. However, forecasts are not so accurate when sea ice conditions are unusually higher or lower compared to this trend.

"We found that in years when the sea ice extent departed strongly from the trend, such as in 2012 and 2013, predictions failed regardless of the method used to forecast the September sea ice extent," said Julienne Stroeve, a senior scientist at NSIDC and professor at University of College London. Stroeve is lead author of the study, published recently in Geophysical Research Letters.

"That downward trend reflects Arctic climate change, but the causes of yearly variations around the trend are harder to pin down," said Lawrence Hamilton, co-author and a researcher at the University of New Hampshire. "This collection of forecasts from many different sources highlights where they do well, and where more work is needed."

Arctic sea ice cover grows each winter as the sun sets for several months, and shrinks each summer as the sun rises higher in the northern sky. Each year, the Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum extent in September. Scientists consider Arctic sea ice as a sensitive climate indicator and track this minimum extent every year to see if any trends emerge.

Multi-channel passive microwave satellite instruments have been tracking sea ice extent since 1979. According to the data, September sea ice extent from 1979 to 2013 has declined 13.7 percent per decade. The recent years have shown an even more dramatic reduction in Arctic ice. In September 2012, Arctic sea ice reached a record minimum: 16 percent lower than any previous September since 1979, and 45 percent lower than the average ice extent from 1981 to 2010.

Long-term predictions of summer Arctic extent made by global climate models (GCMs) suggest that the downward trend will likely lead to an ice-free Arctic summer in the middle of the century. GCMs are in overall agreement on loss of Arctic summer sea ice as a result of anticipated warming from the rise in greenhouse gases this century.

Shorter-term forecasts of summer ice extent are harder to make but are now in high demand. The shrinking ice has caught the attention of coastal communities in the Arctic and industries interested in extracting resources and in a shorter shipping route between Europe and Asia.

Many of the forecasts analyzed in the study focused on the state of the ice cover prior to the summer melt season. According to the study, including sea ice thickness and concentration could improve the seasonal forecasts.

"It may even be possible to predict sea ice cover a year in advance with high-quality observations of sea ice thickness and snow cover over the whole Arctic," said Cecilia Bitz, co-author and professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington.

"Short term predictions are achievable, but challenges remain in predicting anomalous years, and there is a need for better data for initialization of forecast models," Stroeve said. "Of course there is always the issue that we cannot predict the weather, and summer weather patterns remain important."

The study analyzed forecasts from the Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Sea Ice Outlook, a project that gathers and summarizes sea ice forecasts made by sea ice researchers and prediction centers. Contributors to the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook project employ a variety of techniques to forecast the September sea ice extent, ranging from heuristic, to statistical, to sophisticated modeling approaches.

View the original article here

Significant harmful algal bloom predicted in western Lake Erie this summer

July 2, 2013

Satellite image of 2011 bloom (the most severe in decades).

Download here
(Credit: MERIS/NASA; processed by NOAA/NOS/NCCOS )

NOAA and its research partners predict that the 2013 western Lake Erie harmful algal bloom (HAB) season will have a significant bloom of cyanobacteria, a toxic blue-green algae, this summer. The predicted bloom is expected to be larger than last year, but considerably less than the record-setting 2011 bloom. Bloom impacts will vary across the lake’s western basin. This marks the second time NOAA has issued an annual outlook for western Lake Erie.

“This annual forecast and NOAA’s weekly bulletins provide the most advanced ecological information possible to Great Lakes businesses and resource managers so they can save time and money on the things they do that drive recreational activities and the economy,” said Holly Bamford, Ph.D., NOAA’s assistant administrator for the National Ocean Service.

Satellite image of 2012 bloom (1/6 the size of 2011).

Download here
(Credit: MERIS/NASA; processed by NOAA/NOS/NCCOS)

Harmful algae blooms were common on western Lake Erie in the 1960s and 1970s. After a lapse of nearly 20 years, they have been steadily increasing over the past decade. As an early warning system, NOAA has issued weekly HABS bulletins for western Lake Erie since 2008 through the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS). The weekly bulletins will continue in 2013.

“This information is critical for tourists, coastal businesses, water treatment plant operators, state and regional natural resource managers and scientists throughout Ohio, the region, and the country,” said Jeff Reutter, Ph.D., director of  Ohio State University’s Sea Grant program and Stone Laboratory. “In Ohio, as part of our Phosphorus Task Force II, we have used information from the NOAA model to help us target reductions in the amount of phosphorus going into the lake that would eliminate, or greatly reduce, the HABs.”

“The timing, size and location of blooms heavily impact our charter businesses,” said Captain Rick Unger, owner of Chief’s Charters and president of the Lake Erie Charter Boat Association. “I use the weekly bulletins to plan my trip routes and fuel costs, but more importantly they help me get our visitors out of their hotel rooms and onto the water.”

The 2013 seasonal forecast, made possible using NOAA models developed by NCCOS scientists, uses an 11-year data set of nutrients flowing into Lake Erie, collected by the Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research, and analysis of satellite data from the European Space Agency’s Envisat. In addition to the satellite monitoring of the lake, NOAA’s Great Lakes Environmental Research  Laboratory, Ohio State University’s Sea Grant Program and Stone Laboratory, Heidelberg University, the University of Toledo, and Ohio EPA will be collecting key measurements from the lake as the summer progresses. Those results will provide valuable information to regional managers and assist NCCOS scientists in further refining the accuracy of this forecast’s models.

“Issuing and evaluating this seasonal forecast allows us to develop ways to help resource managers plan for conditions that will occur later in the summer,” said Richard Stumpf, Ph.D., NOAA’s ecological forecasting applied research lead at NCCOS. “Through partnerships with Heidelberg University and Ohio Sea Grant, we bring live tools to regional managers currently facing HAB challenges, but we are also constantly re-calibrating and evolving our forecasting products to meet changing HAB conditions.”

The NOAA forecast models and analyses draw on several sources, including nutrient data from Heidelberg University’s National Center for Water Quality Research and satellite data from
MERIS and NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer. Funding to support the
program was provided through NCCOS, NOAA’s Center of Excellence for Great Lakes and Human Health, and NASA’s Applied Science Health and Air Quality Program.

The Lake Erie forecast is part of a NOAA ecological forecasting initiative that aims to deliver accurate, relevant, timely, and reliable ecological forecasts directly to coastal resource managers and the public as part of its stewardship and scientific mandates for coastal, marine and Great Lakes resources. Additionally, NOAA currently provides, or is developing, HABs and hypoxia forecasts for the Gulf of Maine, Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Northwest.

The National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science is the coastal science office for NOAA’s National Ocean Service. Visit our website or follow our blog to read more about NCCOS research.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

Arctic nearly free of summer sea ice during first half of 21st century

April 12, 2013

For scientists studying summer sea ice in the Arctic, it’s not a question of “if” there will be nearly ice-free summers, but “when.” And two scientists say that “when” is sooner than many thought — before 2050 and possibly within the next decade or two.

James Overland of NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory and Muyin Wang of the NOAA Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean at the University of Washington, looked at three methods of predicting when the Arctic will be nearly ice free in the summer. The work was published recently online in the American Geophysical Union publication Geophysical Research Letters.

“Rapid Arctic sea ice loss is probably the most visible indicator of global climate change; it leads to shifts in ecosystems and economic access, and potentially impacts weather throughout the northern hemisphere,” said Overland. “Increased physical understanding of rapid Arctic climate shifts and improved models are needed that give a more detailed picture and timing of what to expect so we can better prepare and adapt to such changes. Early loss of Arctic sea ice gives immediacy to the issue of climate change.”   

“There is no one perfect way to predict summer sea ice loss in the Arctic,” said Wang. “So we looked at three approaches that result in widely different dates, but all three suggest nearly sea ice-free summers in the Arctic before the middle of this century.”

NOAA scientists explore the Arctic during a 2005 mission.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

Overland and Wang emphasized that the term “nearly” ice free is important as some sea ice is expected to remain north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland.           

The “trendsetters” approach uses observed sea ice trends. These data show that the total amount of sea ice decreased rapidly over the previous decade. Using those trends, this approach extrapolates to a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by 2020. The “stochasters” approach is based on assuming future multiple, but random in time, large sea ice loss events such as those that occurred in 2007 and 2012. This method estimates it would take several more events to reach a nearly sea ice-free state in the summer. Using the likelihood of such events, this approach suggests a nearly sea ice-free Arctic by about 2030 but with large uncertainty in timing.
The “modelers” approach is based on using the large collection of global climate model results to predict atmosphere, ocean, land, and sea ice conditions over time. These models show the earliest possible loss of sea ice to be around 2040 as greenhouse gas concentrations increase and the Arctic warms. But the median timing of sea ice loss in these models is closer to 2060. There are several reasons to consider that this median timing of sea ice loss in these models may be too slow.

“Some people may interpret this to mean that models are not useful. Quite the opposite,” said Overland. “Models are based on chemical and physical climate processes and we need better models for the Arctic as the importance of that region continues to grow.”

Taken together, the range among the multiple approaches still suggests that it is very likely that the timing for future sea ice loss will be within the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

View the original article here

Climate Dice- The Sixth Roll: Lottery Numbers For Summer 2012

The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for summer 2012 came up as 116, the third warmest ranking on record for the lower 48 states for any summer. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings. For everyone who participated in my fourth lottery contest, the numbers were: 105/118/103 for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012 with an overall Power Ball ranking for the season of 116. Just like summer and fall 2011, winter 2012, and spring 2012 not even one month was below average. Above average rankings have occurred for every month since (and including) June 2011. In fact, the lower 48 states have never had 15 straight months of above average temperatures since records have been kept in 1895... a phenomenon that I HIGHLY think is due to man induced global warming.

The winner was Buzz Bernard (again!) who came closest to picking the correct numbers. His picks were 118/115/100 with a "power ball" ranking of 114 for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012. Good going Buzz, we'll all have to look a little closer at the data to beat you next time. Buzz had previously won the contest for winter 2011/2012.

Well, let's play the lottery again. I wonder if we will ever see in the future a "gotcha" set of three months when temperatures are below average for an entire season across the lower 48 states. Just like last time pick three numbers between 1 and 118 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 118 being the highest possible ranking) for SEP/AUG/SEP 2012. Also pick a "Power Ball" or overall ranking number for fall 2012 between 1 and 118. Please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by October 1st. As usual, if you wait until just before October 1st to make your picks, you can get an educated guess as to what the ranking for September will be. I'll announce another winner shortly after the National Climatic Data Center processes fall averages and rankings on my next post around December the 10th, 2012. I won't be shocked, at all though again, if just like last summer, fall, winter, and this spring and summer not one single month of fall is below average.

For reference the following are links to my first five posts:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex">http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/climate-dice-fifth-roll-blog_2012-06-25

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26102.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25602.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_23192.html?from=blog_permalink_month

Once again, the summer season, as a whole, was above long term averages with no individual month below average; and thus, having above average rankings. I'll reiterate once more (I know that this is getting repetitive) that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I'm not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another below average season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change...and they were very skewed towards warmth this summer. As stated in my fourth post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What has happened so far this year is yet more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States.

The summer heat got deadly this season. Over one hundred people were killed due to heat related issues in the United States. If this summer is any indication of what is to happen in the future, we will all be dreading the advent of the summer solstice and yearning for fall to come quickly. Going back to my first blog, I've been looking closely at temperature averages since my career began at TWC in the 1980s and record temperature data since the late 1990s. In fact, a log of record data that I started on 1/1/2000 led to a peer review science paper indicating that the ratio of record highs to record lows will increase with time during the 21st century should the pace of global warming continue as predicted by climate science's current models. For an overview and summary please see: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040736.shtml
The public doesn't mind if there is a record high of say 70 in New York City during the middle of January...in fact it may be welcome, but people do feel uncomfortable, and actually can die if a record high of over 100 occurs in that same city during the summer. Such was the case during the summer of 2012 when 9685 daily records were set, 358 of which were all-time records. For a horrifying preview of a world to come see the Rolling Stones post at: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

Here's a breakdown of the National Climatic Center's ranking numbers for each month of the summer:

In June the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 105 (out of 118):

The historic early heat wave of late spring/early summer started in the Inter-Mountain West. Colorado had its warmest June in recorded history. You can pick out the individual rankings for each state from each map that I will present. The devastating fires in Colorado were a direct result of the early season heat accompanied by drought. The Southeast started out the month on a cool note, but Atlanta, where I live, had an all-time record high of 106 on the last day of June. The heat from the Plains spread east by the end of the month. 343 all-time records were set from late June into July across the U.S.

In July the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 118 (out of 118).

Oh my! July was the hottest July in recorded history for the lower 48 states. Not only that, it was THE WARMEST MONTH in recorded history. The previous warmest month was July 1936 during the height of the Dust Bowl.
It was only a few months ago that March 2012 also ranked at 118...remarkable! Again, the ranking for each month is not an average of the rankings for each individual state, but a comparison of the averages of all prior years since 1895 for the entire lower 48 states.

In August the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 103 (out of 118).

In August the jet stream dipped southward into the eastern U.S. allowing cooler than average air masses to penetrate deep into the South; but high pressure aloft continued to cook the West and much of the Plains. It was still warm enough from coast to coast for August to be the 16th warmest August (out of 118) on record.

The overall ranking for summer 2012 was 116 (out of 118)...The third hottest summer on record.

Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last three posts. The average ranking for 2012 is
59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 38 blue and all those at or above 79 red with rankings + or -- 19 from the median value of 59 black.

The following are the rankings so far for the 2010's:

Also, for reference, the following are "Power-Ball" and "Mega-Ball" ranking numbers for 2000 to the present.
Please see my prior posts for more charts dating back to 1900. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.

Notice that since the start of 2000 only five out of fifty-one seasons have been below average or "blue". Thirty-six out of the fifty-one seasons since 2000 have been "red" or above average. Indeed, as stated in the last post, the climate dice are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history.
I hope that everyone will have a pleasant fall. Even if fall ends up being well above average, at least it will be cooler than what has occurred during this torrid summer.

Click here to leave a comment and play the climate lottery.

Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel

View the original article here

Climate Dice- The Sixth Roll: Lottery Numbers For Summer 2012

The Power Ball (or overall National Climatic Data Center Ranking) number for summer 2012 came up as 116, the third warmest ranking on record for the lower 48 states for any summer. A ranking of 1 would have been the coldest possible ranking. The National Climatic Data Center has been ranking months, seasons and years from 1 to 118 since 1895 with 1 being the coldest possible temperature average ranking and 118 being the warmest possible temperature average. In the Climate Lottery game, I've defined each individual lottery number as rankings for each month for the lower 48 states, Power Ball numbers as those for each season, and Mega Ball numbers as those for each year. As we keep seeing over and over again the Climate Lottery game is rigged towards those higher number rankings. For everyone who participated in my fourth lottery contest, the numbers were: 105/118/103 for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012 with an overall Power Ball ranking for the season of 116. Just like summer and fall 2011, winter 2012, and spring 2012 not even one month was below average. Above average rankings have occurred for every month since (and including) June 2011. In fact, the lower 48 states have never had 15 straight months of above average temperatures since records have been kept in 1895... a phenomenon that I HIGHLY think is due to man induced global warming.

The winner was Buzz Bernard (again!) who came closest to picking the correct numbers. His picks were 118/115/100 with a "power ball" ranking of 114 for JUN/JUL/AUG 2012. Good going Buzz, we'll all have to look a little closer at the data to beat you next time. Buzz had previously won the contest for winter 2011/2012.

Well, let's play the lottery again. I wonder if we will ever see in the future a "gotcha" set of three months when temperatures are below average for an entire season across the lower 48 states. Just like last time pick three numbers between 1 and 118 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 118 being the highest possible ranking) for SEP/AUG/SEP 2012. Also pick a "Power Ball" or overall ranking number for fall 2012 between 1 and 118. Please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by October 1st. As usual, if you wait until just before October 1st to make your picks, you can get an educated guess as to what the ranking for September will be. I'll announce another winner shortly after the National Climatic Data Center processes fall averages and rankings on my next post around December the 10th, 2012. I won't be shocked, at all though again, if just like last summer, fall, winter, and this spring and summer not one single month of fall is below average.

For reference the following are links to my first five posts:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex">http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/climate-dice-fifth-roll-blog_2012-06-25

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26573.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26102.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25602.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_23192.html?from=blog_permalink_month

Once again, the summer season, as a whole, was above long term averages with no individual month below average; and thus, having above average rankings. I'll reiterate once more (I know that this is getting repetitive) that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I'm not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another below average season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. The whole point of these posts is to demonstrate how skewed temperatures have become towards warmth due to climate change...and they were very skewed towards warmth this summer. As stated in my fourth post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What has happened so far this year is yet more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States.

The summer heat got deadly this season. Over one hundred people were killed due to heat related issues in the United States. If this summer is any indication of what is to happen in the future, we will all be dreading the advent of the summer solstice and yearning for fall to come quickly. Going back to my first blog, I've been looking closely at temperature averages since my career began at TWC in the 1980s and record temperature data since the late 1990s. In fact, a log of record data that I started on 1/1/2000 led to a peer review science paper indicating that the ratio of record highs to record lows will increase with time during the 21st century should the pace of global warming continue as predicted by climate science's current models. For an overview and summary please see: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040736.shtml
The public doesn't mind if there is a record high of say 70 in New York City during the middle of January...in fact it may be welcome, but people do feel uncomfortable, and actually can die if a record high of over 100 occurs in that same city during the summer. Such was the case during the summer of 2012 when 9685 daily records were set, 358 of which were all-time records. For a horrifying preview of a world to come see the Rolling Stones post at: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

Here's a breakdown of the National Climatic Center's ranking numbers for each month of the summer:

In June the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 105 (out of 118):

The historic early heat wave of late spring/early summer started in the Inter-Mountain West. Colorado had its warmest June in recorded history. You can pick out the individual rankings for each state from each map that I will present. The devastating fires in Colorado were a direct result of the early season heat accompanied by drought. The Southeast started out the month on a cool note, but Atlanta, where I live, had an all-time record high of 106 on the last day of June. The heat from the Plains spread east by the end of the month. 343 all-time records were set from late June into July across the U.S.

In July the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 118 (out of 118).

Oh my! July was the hottest July in recorded history for the lower 48 states. Not only that, it was THE WARMEST MONTH in recorded history. The previous warmest month was July 1936 during the height of the Dust Bowl.
It was only a few months ago that March 2012 also ranked at 118...remarkable! Again, the ranking for each month is not an average of the rankings for each individual state, but a comparison of the averages of all prior years since 1895 for the entire lower 48 states.

In August the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 103 (out of 118).

In August the jet stream dipped southward into the eastern U.S. allowing cooler than average air masses to penetrate deep into the South; but high pressure aloft continued to cook the West and much of the Plains. It was still warm enough from coast to coast for August to be the 16th warmest August (out of 118) on record.

The overall ranking for summer 2012 was 116 (out of 118)...The third hottest summer on record.

Again, I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last three posts. The average ranking for 2012 is
59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings for this post at or below 38 blue and all those at or above 79 red with rankings + or -- 19 from the median value of 59 black.

The following are the rankings so far for the 2010's:

Also, for reference, the following are "Power-Ball" and "Mega-Ball" ranking numbers for 2000 to the present.
Please see my prior posts for more charts dating back to 1900. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.

Notice that since the start of 2000 only five out of fifty-one seasons have been below average or "blue". Thirty-six out of the fifty-one seasons since 2000 have been "red" or above average. Indeed, as stated in the last post, the climate dice are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history.
I hope that everyone will have a pleasant fall. Even if fall ends up being well above average, at least it will be cooler than what has occurred during this torrid summer.

Click here to leave a comment and play the climate lottery.

Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, the Weather Channel

View the original article here

Summer 2012 was the USA's third-hottest on record

The USA just endured its third-hottest summer on record, and it looks like the fall is on track to be warmer than average too, scientists reported Monday.

National Climatic Data Center

States in red (Wyoming and Colorado) had their warmest summer on record, while all the states in orange had one of their top-ten warmest summers on record. No states saw a below average summer for temperatures.

National Climatic Data Center

States in red (Wyoming and Colorado) had their warmest summer on record, while all the states in orange had one of their top-ten warmest summers on record. No states saw a below average summer for temperatures.

For the entire year to date, the nation is having its warmest year since records began in 1895, said the report by the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

About 80 million Americans sweltered through 100-degree temperatures at some point this summer, the climate center noted in its report.

The warmth should continue for much of the nation over the next several months: "We're looking at a warmer-than-average fall," especially east of the Rockies, AccuWeather meteorologist Jack Boston said.

He adds that cooler-than-average temperatures should be confined to the far west this fall, however, with mountain snows possible by early October.

With the El Niño climate pattern now in effect, "the best chances for above-normal temperatures this fall are in the northern tier of the nation," mainly east of the Rockies, forecaster Jon Gottschalck of the Climate Prediction Center said.

Seven of the 10 hottest summers in U.S. history have occurred since 2000. Average summer temperature:

Year / Avg.:

1936: 74.64

2011: 74.49

2012: 74.41

2006: 74.36

1934: 74.18

2002: 73.96

2010: 73.95

1988: 73.92

2007: 73.90

2003: 73.53

Source: NOAA

El Niño is a periodic warming of Pacific Ocean water temperatures that influences weather in the USA and around the world.

The summer heat this year really ramped up in July, which ended up as the hottest month in U.S. history.

"The heat was widespread in July," scientist Jake Crouch of the National Climatic Data Center said. The worst of the heat eased a bit in August, he said, which prevented the summer from being the hottest on record.

The climate center defines summer as June 1-Aug. 31. Seven of the 10 hottest summers in U.S. history have occurred since 2000, and the nation has experienced its second- and third-warmest summers in back-to-back years.

This may be a signal of climate change: "All of this fits into the longer-term warming trend," Crouch told the environmental group Climate Central.

Other highlights of summer:

•The average U.S. temperature during the summer was 74.4 degrees, which was 2.3 degrees above the long-term (1901-2000) average. Only 1936, at 74.6 degrees, and 2011, at 74.5 degrees, were warmer.

•Two states — Colorado and Wyoming — had their warmest summer on record.

•As for rainfall, the nation saw extremes this summer: Nebraska and Wyoming had their driest summer on record, while Florida had its wettest summer.

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

View the original article here

Drought, dry summer mean more encounters with hungry bears

OLD FORGE, N.Y. – With their normal summer diet of greens and berries shriveled by summer heat or drought in many spots nationwide, hungry bears are rummaging through garbage, ripping through screens and crawling into cars in search of sustenance.

Handout via AP

In this May 9 photo provided by Donna Wiltsie, a bear searches a porch for food in Catskill, N.Y.

Handout via AP

In this May 9 photo provided by Donna Wiltsie, a bear searches a porch for food in Catskill, N.Y.

In the Adirondack Mountain village of Old Forge in northern New York state, a black bear clawed through the wall of a candy store on Main Street last week; another one locked itself in a minivan and shredded the interior in a frantic struggle to escape, according to the state Department of Environmental Conservation.

"We've been here 17 years and never had a problem with bears," said Roslyn Starer, who runs the Candy Cottage in Old Forge with her son, Larry. "But it's been so dry the normal foods in the woods just aren't growing. So they're coming into town."

Starer came to the shop one morning to find a bear had ripped a big hole in the wall. "If it had gone much further it would have gotten into the shop, and the damage would have been devastating," she said.

This summer's bear troubles aren't isolated to New York. In eastern Kentucky, the U.S. Forest Service closed two campgrounds for a weekend at the end of July because of bears raiding picnic baskets and coolers. Biologists blamed the drought-related berry shortage.

In Colorado, where drought has dried up the chokecherries and serviceberries bears rely on, a bear and three cubs broke into more than a dozen cars in Aspen looking for food in June.

A surveillance camera in a candy store in Estes Park, Colo., showed a bear making seven trips inside for candy in 15 minutes. A bear that broke into occupied homes there last month was put down because it posed a danger to people, one official said, noting the drought has made the intelligent animals even more resourceful in finding food.

Weather-related bear problems are nothing new, as natural food supplies vary from year to year depending on rainfall and other factors. But this summer has been a particularly busy one, wildlife biologists in New York say.

"This has been an interesting year for bears, especially in the Catskills," said Jeremy Hurst, a big game biologist with the New York state Department of Environmental Conservation, referring to the mountain range north of New York City. "In multiple communities, bears have gotten into people's homes, in some cases even when people were at home. Half a dozen to a dozen bears have been euthanized. More have been trapped and relocated."

While property has been damaged by foraging bears, no human injuries have been reported in New York this year.

In the Catskills last month, there were three times as many serious bear issues such as home and vehicle break-ins as there were in the same period last year, Hurst said.

"Typically, complaints of bear damage peak in late spring, but this year, the frequency of bear complaints picked up strongly with the drought in July," he said.

The Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University reported Tuesday that so far, 2012 has been the hottest year on record for the 12-state region. While conditions in the Northeast weren't as dry as some parts of the country, there has been moderate drought in parts of upstate New York.

Bears typically turn to hard foods such as acorns and beechnuts in the fall to bulk up for winter. Paul Curtis, a wildlife specialist with the Cornell Cooperative Extension and associate professor at Cornell University, said a cold snap in April that damaged a lot of fruit tree buds also may have affected acorns and other wild nuts. That could mean trouble for corn farmers, with bears fattening up in their fields, Curtis said.

In Vermont, Department of Fish and Wildlife biologist Forrest Hammond said food scarcity due to the dry summer was contributing to bear complaints. The department has recommended that farmers bring in their corn crops as soon as possible.

"The farmers are going to have a tougher time with bears," Hammond said.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

View the original article here

Summer in America: Union Creek, Ore.

Larry Bradburn sent us this shot of the upper Rogue River at Woodruff Bridge, a rugged spot near Union Creek, Ore.

Send us a photo of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Northeast bakes on 1st day of summer

Summer started with a bang Wednesday with a blistering, record-smashing heat wave in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where temperatures soared well into the 90s and hit 100 degrees in a few spots.

By Julio Cortez, AP

A plane preparing to land at Newark Liberty International Airport cruises by clouds covering the Wednesday sunrise in Newark.

By Julio Cortez, AP

A plane preparing to land at Newark Liberty International Airport cruises by clouds covering the Wednesday sunrise in Newark.

Record-high temperatures were broken Wednesday in locations such as New York City's LaGuardia Airport (98 degrees), Newark, N.J. (98), Hartford, Conn. (97), and Burlington, Vt. (95 degrees). Today and Friday should see more record-breaking heat before cooler air arrives in time for the weekend.

For the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, it was the season's first significant heat wave, which can be the most dangerous, said National Weather Service spokesman Chris Vaccaro. "Early season heat outbreaks can lead to a high number of heat-related health issues," he says, "as our bodies aren't used to it yet."

The high temperatures throughout the Northeast are expected to return Thursday, with readings in the mid- to high-90s.

Mail carrier Connie Vincent was already sweating as she began her rounds in Manchester, Conn., Wednesday morning.

"There's nothing you can do," she said as she dabbed her face with wet washcloths. "Tomorrow's my day off, thank God. I've just got to make it through today."

The weather service posted heat advisories and warnings in a continuous stretch from central Virginia to southern Maine, a distance of more than 600 miles.

Wednesday was the summer solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, the day with the longest period of daylight and the start of astronomical summer. Meteorological summer is defined as the months of June, July and August.

The heat produced some bizarre weather statistics: It was much warmer on Wednesday in Concord, N.H. (96 degrees) than it was in Miami (79 degrees).

Some spots in New Jersey neared 100 degrees. At an outdoor high school graduation in North Bergen, N.J., several relatives of graduates were treated for heat exhaustion and taken to a hospital.

The cause of the heat in the East, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Andy Mussoline, was a large high-pressure system that settled over the Mid-Atlantic, bringing in warm air from the South.

Heat can build up pretty quickly in the summer under these high-pressure systems, he said.

The worst of the heat in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic should end late Friday, he said, thanks to a cold front that's forecast to move into the region, bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

"Much more comfortable weather will move into the region by the weekend," Mussoline said.

The typically torrid desert Southwest was seeing its own heat wave Wednesday, where highs were forecast to reach a scorching 115 degrees, hot even by the standards of that part of the nation.

More extreme heat is likely today and Friday in the Southwest. Excessive-heat warnings were posted in southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, where highs of 110 to 115 degrees were again possible through Friday.

While the Northeast will get a reprieve from the heat over the weekend and into early next week, the central and southeastern USA should see some searing heat by next week.

"Dallas could see its first 100-degree day of the year next week," Mussoline said.

Contributing: The Associated Press

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

View the original article here

Summer in America: Perdido Key, Fla.

Trent Barrilleaux sent up this photo of seagrass bed while kayaking Ono Island on Florida's Perdido Key.

Send us a photo of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Summer in America: Louisville, Ky

Barry Sanford sent this photo of Floral Terrace, a Victorian section of Old Louisville that was developed about 100 years ago south of the downtown area. Barry notes that the houses face each other across a "walking court."

Send us a photo of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Summer in America: Clearwater, Fla.

Doug Nebel took this shot of people frolicking in the waves near Pier 60 at sunset on Clearwater Beach, Fla., as storm clouds rolled in.

Send a photo of summer in your area as the season gets underway. We'll select the best to appear in On Deadline.

A few guidelines:

1. Please submit only one photo.

2. It must be from this summer, and it must be your original work on which you control all the rights.

3. As much as we like cute kids and dogs, please keep the focus on landscape and scenery (to avoid the need for model release forms and other clutter!)

4. Include a sentence or two of description about where the photo was taken.

5. Don't forget to send us your name, so we can give you a photo credit. Include your e-mail address and/or phone number (which we will NOT publish) in case we have any questions.

6. Send the photo with a brief caption in your own words to OnDeadline@usatoday.com

View the original article here

Experts: Oklahoma, not Texas, had hottest summer ever

TULSA, Okla. (AP) -- Oklahoma and Texas have argued for years about which has the best college football team, whose oil fields produce better crude, even where the state border should run. But in a hot, sticky dispute that no one wants to win, Oklahoma just reclaimed its crown.

By Sue Ogrocki, AP

Liz Moody and Stephanie Russell try to keep cool as they watch a softball game in Oklahoma City in July 2011. After recalculating data from 2011, climatologists report that Oklahoma suffered through the hottest summer ever recorded in the U.S.

By Sue Ogrocki, AP

Liz Moody and Stephanie Russell try to keep cool as they watch a softball game in Oklahoma City in July 2011. After recalculating data from 2011, climatologists report that Oklahoma suffered through the hottest summer ever recorded in the U.S.

After recalculating data from last year, the nation's climatologists are declaring that Oklahoma suffered through the hottest summer ever recorded in the U.S. last year - not Texas as initially announced last fall.

"It doesn't make me feel any better," joked Texas rancher Debbie Davis, who lives northwest of San Antonio.

In the new tally by the National Climatic Data Center, Oklahoma's average temperature last summer was 86.9 degrees, while Texas finished with 86.7 degrees. The previous record for the hottest summer was 85.2 degrees set in 1934 -- in Oklahoma.

"I'm from Oklahoma, and when you talk about the summer of 1934, there are a lot of connotations that go with that," said Deke Arndt, chief of the NCDC's climate monitoring branch in Asheville, N.C. "That whole climate episode - the Dust Bowl - that is a point in our state's history that we still look back to as transformative."

Yet the summer of 2011, "was warmer than all those summers that they experienced during the Dust Bowl," Arndt said.

Surprisingly, average summer temperatures are usually higher in states in the Southeast and southern Plains than in states in the Desert Southwest. For example, there are no "cool" spots in Oklahoma during a typical summer, while cooler parts of northern Arizona bring that state's overall average summer temperature down.

Also, the Desert Southwest's generally higher elevations and drier air lend themselves to lower overnight temperatures, which pulls the daily average down, Arndt said.

The record swap became apparent after extra data trickled in from weather stations and meteorological field reports across both states. That data also pushed up Oklahoma's mark as the hottest month ever by two-tenths of a degree, to 89.3 degrees in July 2011.

Oklahoma had experienced unusually dry, hot weather in the winter and spring, then summer brought regular triple-digit temperatures that fueled wildfires, prompted burn bans and led to water rationing in some communities.

"We didn't just barely surpass the previous summer record, we smashed it," said Gary McManus, Oklahoma's associate state climatologist. "That last summer was so far above and beyond what we consider normal, I don't think there will be another, compared to what we had."

Through the years, Texans and Oklahomans have fought over just about everything, from water rights to barbecue joints. Huge crowds attend the annual meeting of the University of Texas and University of Oklahoma football teams in Dallas.

It even took the states until 1999 to settle a boundary dispute that landed before the U.S. Supreme Court in 1894 -- before Oklahoma's statehood.

But residents on both sides of that now undisputed Texas-Oklahoma border want no part in the summer fight.

For Oklahoma rancher Monte Tucker, last summer was a breaking point, and it didn't make him feel any better Friday when he learned about his state's new dubious honor.

Last summer felt like "opening an oven after cooking bread," said Tucker, who ranches in Sweetwater, in western Oklahoma. "We basically got up right about sun-up and did all we could until 11 in the morning, and we basically shut down almost `till dark and kind of started up again.

"I don't want to do it again, I'll say that much," he said.

Last summer also took a toll on plants and trees, many of which were weakened by the intense heat.

"We had to stop planting last summer because it was silly to plant in 100-degree temperatures," said Stephen Smith, who works at Southwood Garden Center and Nursery in Tulsa.

"I've been in this business 30 years," he added. "And it was probably one of the worst temperatures I can remember."

Contributing: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY

For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

View the original article here

Crop insurance rates skyrocket after summer floods (AP)

By HEATHER HOLLINGSWORTH, Associated Press Heather Hollingsworth, Associated Press – Wed Dec 14, 7:55 am ET

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Midwestern farmers who saw their land swamped by summer flooding may be socked again with steep increases in their crop insurance premiums, the expensive result of the failure to fix broken levees before the winter snow and next spring's rains.

The Missouri River rose to record levels this year after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began releasing massive amounts of water from reservoirs in Montana, Nebraska and the Dakotas that had been inundated with melting snow and heavy rains. Many levees in downstream states such as Iowa and Missouri were no match for weeks of sustained pressure and gave way. Homes and farms were damaged or ruined.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Risk Management Agency said $114 million in claims have been paid so far for flooding damage on 436,000 acres along the Missouri River downstream from the Gavins Point Dam on the Nebraska-South Dakota border. Record high water levels also created havoc along the lower Mississippi River from Missouri to Louisiana.

In southeast Missouri, the corps used explosives to blow gaping holes in the Birds Point levee to let water out of the Mississippi River and save the tiny town of Cairo, Ill., on the river's eastern bank. The blast sent water cascading over Missouri farms.

The deluge flooded about 130,000 acres behind the levee, including about 8,000 on which Ed Marshall, 55, of Charleston, grows corn, wheat and soybeans. He received $1.5 million in federally-subsidized crop insurance, which covers part of farmers' losses from such things as drought, flooding, hail, wind, insects and plant disease.

Then his premium skyrocketed. He recently paid about $100,000 to insure about 2,700 acres of wheat that he planted in the fall and hopes to harvest in the spring. The amount is nearly five times what he paid a year ago because the U.S. Department of Agriculture now considers his land high risk and he increased his coverage because of the risk.

Marshall, like many farmers, feels like the government has left him high and dry.

"You are going to blow my levee up and then you are going to turn around and take more money from me for insurance because I don't have a levee because you all blew it up," he said. "There is nothing right about that in my opinion."

The higher premium is worth it, given that Marshall expects to earn $1 million from the wheat.

But the rise in insurance costs "is almost adding insult to injury to farmers who lost their crops this year," said Kathy Kunkel, the clerk in Holt County on the opposite side of the state, where the Missouri River flooded more than 120,000 acres and 32 levees were breached. Insurance is a regular cost of doing business, but "this is going to put some people out of business," she added.

Officials with the USDA's Risk Management Agency began warning farmers of potential rate increases over the summer because they didn't want them to be shocked when the 2012 rates were announced last month, said Rebecca Davis, a spokeswoman for the agency.

"We had a lot of public meetings and at those meetings I said, `We have to recognize that this levee is no longer there. And if it doesn't get repaired by the time that the insurance attaches, we have to recognize that it is a higher risk,'" Davis said. "We tried to let them know as early as possible."

It can be two to three times more expensive to insure farmland behind damaged levees than those where repairs have been made. Some farmers, like Marshall, have already paid the higher rates for crops planted this fall. Others will pay unless repairs are made before crops like corn and soybeans are planted in the spring. Along with the Birds Point area, the higher rates could apply in 22 counties in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska and Tennessee.

The corps has estimated it will cost more than $2 billion to repair damage this year's flooding did to levees, dams and riverbanks. With a funding bill stalled in Congress, the corps has been focusing its limited money on fixing levees that protect communities and facilities such as water treatment plants.

"We are not going to have them all fixed," said Jody Farhat, chief of the Missouri River Basin Water Management office. "The (levees) that we are working on because the funding is limited won't be restored to their pre-flood conditions. And there are many that we won't even have money to start the repairs."

Farmers also must restore their soil to pre-flood conditions to get their insurance rates back down. Flooding often cuts massive ruts in the land, washes top soil away and leaves sand from the river bed, which isn't good for farming.

The cleanup is costly. Marshall said he spent $270,000 to clean ditches and clear 200 acres of land. He figures it will cost another $300,000 to fix another 200 acres that were badly damaged.

If the corps can't take care of the levee repairs, it should help farmers pay the higher insurance premiums, Missouri Farm Bureau President Blake Hurst said.

"It's a mess," he said. "These folks have lost their homes. They've lost their grain bins, they've lost their implement sheds, they've lost a year's crop. They have a tremendous amount of damage to the land from both scouring and sand deposits. And now they are looking at an increase in insurance premiums. Something has got to be done."

The levee at Birds Point was 62.5 feet high before the explosion. Generally levees must be restored to their pre-flooding condition, but in the case of Birds Point, farmers won't face big premium increases if the corps gets it back up to 55 feet before spring planting. Marshall said the rebuilding has been going slowly.

"They had a plan to destroy it," he said, "but not a plan to fix."

View the original article here

Summer Gas Waiver Granted for Western Pennsylvania (ContributorNetwork)

Hurricane Irene inflicted some damage on northeastern Pennsylvania, and Tropical Storm Lee compounded that damage by flooding even more areas. As damage estimates quickly approach the $50 million level, another issue that resulted from the series of bad weather was quickly handled by Gov. Tom Corbett and the Environmental Protection Agency. The regulation that requires a summer blend of gasoline be sold in the Pittsburgh area was lifted.

What does gasoline in Pittsburgh have to do with flooding on the other side of the state?

Flooding from Lee and Irene has caused fuel delivery delays to southwestern Pennsylvania. Those pipelines carry large amounts of fuel to the Pittsburgh region. In addition, Irene caused the shutdown of many pipelines and refineries that supply gas to western Pennsylvania. The summer blend of fuel is what retailers are required by law to sell, and is in short supply and could have run out. Since the conventional fuel is readily available, the state asked for a waiver from the EPA to sell that fuel to avoid additional difficulties.

Why is summer blend fuel required?

During the summer months in an effort to reduce emissions, the EPA requires the summer blend to keep those smog-creating chemicals at a minimum. Outside the Pittsburgh area, conventional fuel is available all year, but the city has a notorious air quality record that draws the attention of the EPA. The summer blend is required for the period of June 1 to Sept. 15, which means the date was drawing close anyway.

Has the waiver issue been raised before?

The issue of having the Pittsburgh area issued a waiver for use of conventional fuel versus summer blend was brought up earlier in the year. During that event, problems with the pipeline caused a minor gas shortage in the Pittsburgh area; however, a waiver was not granted in that case.

What counties are affected?

There are seven counties in the Pittsburgh area affected by the change in fuel: Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmoreland. The waiver should assure an adequate supply of gas for consumers.

Jason Gallagher is a long-time Pennsylvania resident. He has experiences in trends and developments in many regions from having lived in many parts of the Keystone State, and currently resides in the Pittsburgh area.

View the original article here

Soggy Midwest faces new summer threat: more rain (AP)

ALAN SCHER ZAGIER and DAVE KOLPACK, Associated Press Alan Scher Zagier And Dave Kolpack, Associated Press – Thu Jun 23, 3:00 pm ET

MINOT, N.D. – The reservoirs are full. The dams are open wide. The rivers have already climbed well beyond their banks. Throughout the Missouri River Valley and other parts of the upper Midwest, there's simply no place left for any more water.

That brings a new threat to the nation's water-logged midsection: more rain. In a region already struggling with historically high water, the return of heavy storms could intensify the flooding and turn a soggy summer into a tragic one for a dozen states that drain into the Missouri.

"We know what's coming down the river, and what's going to continue to come down the river," said meteorologist Wes Browning of the National Weather Service office in St. Louis. "But what we don't know with any certitude, beyond five to seven days, is the amount of rainfall. That's really going to drive this flood."

The peril began unfolding during the spring, when storms dumped an unexpectedly large amount of rain across Montana. That precipitation, combined with unusually heavy snowmelt, caused a vast volume of water to build up behind dams in the United States and Canada.

The Army Corps of Engineers and Canadian authorities have been releasing water through those dams for weeks, inundating many low-lying, mostly rural parts of Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and North and South Dakota. Now the river valley is saturated, and the arrival of any more water could create an even larger disaster.

Many people expect to spend an anxious summer watching the skies and monitoring forecasts.

Terry Higedick, who farms 2,500 acres in central Missouri's Boone and Cole counties, has had plenty of time to prepare. He sold his excess corn and soybeans or put them in a grain elevator. His heavy equipment has been moved to higher ground.

But despite daily updates on dam releases and sophisticated forecasts, he has few reliable ways to estimate how much rain will fall over the next few months — or how high the floodwaters will rise.

"It makes it impossible to plan," he said. "We're kind of stuck in that mode."

In Minot, the danger came from the Souris River, a little-known channel that flows south from Canada without entering the Missouri River basin. On Thursday, crews worked furiously to raise earthen levees in a last-ditch effort to protect at least some neighborhoods, even as officials acknowledged they could not prevent significant damage to North Dakota's fourth-largest city.

The workers on the levee and National Guard troops were the only people to be seen in the endangered areas. As many as 10,000 residents, or about one-fourth of Minot's population, evacuated ahead of the community's worst flooding in four decades.

Thursday's effort also focused on protecting critical infrastructure, including sewer and water service. If those utilities were to be knocked out by floodwaters, more evacuations could be necessary. Parts of the city were already under several feet of water, including a trailer park near the river.

The weather service's Climate Prediction Center issued its three-month outlook for rain on June 16. Above-normal rain was anticipated over a large swath of the Great Plains covering much of the Dakotas, Iowa and Nebraska.

In the worst-case scenario, that rain would gush into the already full river system and produce widespread, near-record flooding from Kansas City to St. Louis.

A case in point: a mere 2 to 3 inches of rain last week in northern Missouri pushed the Mississippi River up 6 feet within days near Hannibal. In Minot, the Souris is expected to top a city record set in 1881 by more than 5 feet.

Flood projections in Missouri are similarly dire. In the state capital of Jefferson City, for instance, the predicted crests of 6 feet to 14 feet above flood stage would wash out roads, breach levees, close railroads, threaten power plant operations and shut down major highways. Experts can't say with certainty if water levels will rise that high, but are warning residents to be prepared.

Right now, those projections are simply "good long-range planning information," Browning said. "From this point on, it depends on what's coming out of the sky."

And the threat looms not just in the amount of rain but also its intensity. A half-inch of rain every day for a week would be far different than a severe thunderstorm that dumped 5 inches of rain in a few hours.

Browning compared the two scenarios to a homeowner watering his lawn.

"I could take two approaches. I could take out a sprinkler overnight with a nice steady, slow stream and nothing would go down the curb," he said. "Or I could do it with a fire hose in five minutes. I would get an inch of water in both cases. But the runoff into the gutter would be far more with the fire hose."

In Minot, the city already endured a major evacuation last month, when the Souris rose briefly to threatening levels. Though residents had been warned that another evacuation was possible, the river's second rise after heavy weekend rains shocked many people, including city officials.

"It's just an unprecedented amount of rainfall this spring in the whole basin," said Mark Davidson, a spokesman for the army corps in St. Paul., Minn. "We're all doing our best, but Mother Nature, she's just tough."

___

Associated Press Writer Doug Glass in Minneapolis contributed to this report.

___

Zagier reported from Columbia, Mo. He can be reached at http://twitter.com/azagier.

View the original article here