Climate Dice- The Fourth Roll: Lottery Numbers For Winter 2011/2012

Blog: Climate Dice- The Fourth Roll: Lottery Numbers For Winter 2011/2012

How well did that prediction of a "mild" winter work out?

The National Climatic Data Center has finished processing the rankings for December, January and February, which are considered meteorological/climatological winter in the Northern Hemisphere for 2011/2012 for the lower 48 states. So, for everyone who participated in my second lottery contest, the numbers were: 85/115/102 with an overall "power-ball" ranking for the season of 114. Just like summer and fall 2011 not even one month was below average.

The winner was Buzz Bernard, who came closest to picking the correct numbers. He posted his numbers before the deadline on January 1st....not bad Buzz....your picks were 104/100/75 for DEC/JAN/FEB 2012.

Incidentally, the "Mega-Ball", or yearly, number or ranking for the lower 48 states in 2011 was 95, which was very similar to that of 2010 (92 out of a possible warmest 117). Rankings began in 1895. The last couple of years have been warm across the United States.

So were those of us who predicted a mild winter just "lucky", or are those lottery picks weighted toward high numbers due to climate change? Let's play the Climate Lottery for spring to see if the Climate Dice will come up warm again across the U.S. Just like last time pick three numbers between 1 and 118 (with one representing the coldest possible ranking and 118 being the highest possible ranking) for MAR/APR/MAY 2012. Also pick a "Power Ball" or overall ranking number for spring 2012 between 1 and 118. Please give your picks in the reply section to this blog by April 1st. I'll announce another winner shortly after the National Climatic Data Center processes averages on my next post around June 10th. My forecast is for spring to be closer to average than this very mild winter but remaining, overall, above long term averages for the entire season. I'm waiting for the pattern to reverse for a month or more in association with the Arctic Oscillation...there will be more information about that phenomenon later in this post when I break down how the Climate Lottery numbers verified this winter. Also we are "due" to see at least one below average month during the spring. I won't be shocked, at all though, if just like summer, fall, and winter not one single month of spring is below average. There are indications that March will be warm. We will all have a fairly good idea where March will rank by April 1st, so as usual, the quick pick for the first month will be an educated freebie. Ominously enough, a tornado outbreak in association with an anomalously warm pattern in the eastern U.S. has already occurred during the first week of March.

For reference the following are links to my first three posts:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_26102.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_25602.html?from=blog_permalink_mainindex

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_23192.html?from=blog_permalink_month

Well, I couldn't resist playing the Climate Lottery, so at the last minute I put in some picks, which were: 106/94/68 for DEC/JAN/FEB 2011/2012 with an overall "Power Ball" or seasonal pick of 99. Once again, the season, as a whole, was above long term averages with no individual month below average; and thus, having above average rankings. I'll reiterate once more that due to climate change it is unlikely for a land area the size of the contiguous United States to have below average temperatures for an entire season. I'm not going to state that there will NEVER AGAIN be another cold season for the United States, but due to man induced global warming, the chances for an entire season of below average conditions is becoming much less likely. As stated in my third post, only an increase in volcanic activity from what is presently occurring at the moment can significantly slow the overall warming trend of the planet. What happened over the winter is more proof of the climate dice being loaded for warmth in the United States.

The reader may site, however, that the Northern Hemisphere did see some below average conditions during the winter...most notably in Alaska and Europe. Some climate scientists do have explanations for why Europe has seen some very cold winters the last few years. Europe's current cold winter pattern fit well with the latest thinking in association with climate change.

"The current weather pattern fits earlier predictions of computer models for how the atmosphere responds to the loss of sea ice due to global warming," said Professor Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. "The ice-free areas of the ocean act like a heater as the water is warmer than the Arctic air above it. This favors the formation of a high-pressure system near the Barents Sea, which steers cold air into Europe."

Here's a breakdown of the National Climatic Center's ranking numbers for each month of the winter:

In December the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 84 (out of 117):

Some of you were a little confused about how NCDC comes up with the overall rankings for the lower 48 states.The ranking for the U.S., as a whole, is not an average of the rankings for each individual state. Rather, the ranking is a comparison of the average temperatures of the entire continental U.S. for the last 117 years through 2011.

Initially, winter got off to a cold start with a frigid air mass diving southward through the West. I did not take into account the first 10 days of the month in the West; thus, I overestimated how warm the overall ranking for the month would be. The rest of December was very mild for most of the country. Some of the Northeast states had their second or third warmest Decembers in recorded history.

So why was the winter, for the most part, very mild? Remember what I referred to in my last post...the positive North Atlantic or Arctic Oscillation. This feature has remained basically intact from the Hudson Bay into Greenland all winter long. Charts from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration depict what has happened in association with the NAO over the last year. Charts can be found at this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Notice that the graphs on the charts are primarily above 0 indicating that the NAO was in a positive phase.Climatologists have found that during the cold season when the Arctic Oscillation is in mostly a positive phase combined with global warming; most of North America will see a mild winter. Waa-la that is what happened this season. What was somewhat surprising was the persistence of the positive Atlantic Oscillation over the entire season. Usually, if this mild pattern occurs during the winter, there are a few weeks when the pattern becomes negative, but that was not the case during the winter of 2011/2012.

Not all of North America was above average, however. Alaska saw some of the coldest conditions for that state's history into January. Due to the nature of weather patterns, some areas of the planet will see below average periods; thus, fooling contrarians, but over periods of a season or longer, warmer than average conditions will appear for those same locations in the climate record.

In January the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 115 (out of 118).

January was startlingly mild, just as July and August 2011 were alarmingly hot. January 2012 was the 4th warmest January for the lower 48 states in recorded history. The northern Plains was particularly mild where there was well below average snow cover and over 1250 daily record highs were either tied or set. The climate dice came up very red in December. My "quick pick" for January of 94 was 11 points too low.

Many people across the United States were asking what had happened to winter. The following is a cute cartoon that I will attribute to Nate Johnson that basically sums up what some meteorologists have been thinking about this season:

Despite the warm January, there was some winter weather. A storm officially dumped seven inches of snow on Seattle during the middle of the month, for instance. All kidding aside though, the winter weather across the United States is probably a precursor of very mild seasons in the future looking at climate trends. I would expect that in the next couple of decades though, there will be wild fluctuations of mild patterns most years with a few more colder and snowier winters depending mostly on what happens with the Arctic Oscillation.

In February the overall ranking for the lower 48 states was 101 (out of 118).
The overall ranking for boreal winter 2011/2012 was 114 (out of 117).

The weather pattern that produced the mild weather in February was similar to that of January. The pattern did shift slightly, however, such that the Northeast was particularly warm. Massachusetts had its warmest February in recorded history.

The "Power Ball" number for the entire U.S. was 114 (out of 117), so the lower 48 states ended up having the 4th warmest winter in recorded history (since 1895). Think about this for a moment: What are the chances in a regular lottery of picking a number from 1 to 117 as high as 114? Again, due to climate change, I think that the game is rigged towards warmth.

I am getting all of my ranking numbers from the National Climatic Data Center.
The link for the National Climatic Data Center's Climate at a Glance Site where the rankings are archived is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I'm keeping the format on all of my charts the same as on the last two posts.The average ranking for 2012 is 59 since the coldest ranking would be 1 and the hottest would be 118. I have color coded all rankings below 49 blue and all those above 69 red with rankings + or -- 10 from the median value of 59 black.

The following are the rankings so far for the 2010's:

Also, for reference, the following are "Power-Ball" and "Mega-Ball" ranking numbers from 1960 to the present. I did not chart seasonal ranking numbers on my last couple of blogs, but will this time. For the sake of discussion I'll define Mega-Ball numbers as NCDC rankings for each year and Power-Ball numbers as NCDC rankings for each season. Seasonal or Power-Ball rankings for winter are those for DEC/JAN/FEB, spring are those for MAR/APR/MAY, summer is JUN/JUL/AUG, and fall is SEP/OCT/NOV. Winter rankings obviously will overlap from one year to the next, but for convenience, the National Climatic Data Center will infer that winter 2012 was for DEC 2011, JAN 2012 and FEB 2012, for example. Also, keep in mind that NCDC rankings for seasons compare temperature averages for individual seasons and are not merely an average of rankings of individual months of a season or year.

Even though two out of the three of the winter months occurred in 2012, the ranking for winter 2011/2012 was the 117th. Rankings from NCDC start in January 1895. The first full winter that could be ranked did not occur until the data for DEC 1895, JAN 1896 and FEB 1896 were complete ...that's why DEC 2011, JAN 2012 and FEB 2012 would be the 117th winter to be ranked, not the 118th.

Notice that since the start of 2000 only four out of forty-nine seasons have been below average or "blue". Thirty-nine out of the forty-nine seasons since 2000 have been "red" or above average. Indeed, the climate dice are very much loaded for above average temperatures for the lower 48 states looking at recent history.

Well, that's it for this post. I just hope that spring 2012 is not as volatile as that of 2011 despite this first horrendous outbreak of tornadoes this week.

Guy Walton
Lead Forecaster, The Weather Channel

View the original article here

On Fourth of July, Earth Is Farthest from the Sun (SPACE.com)

The weather forecast for this year's Fourth of July holiday in the United States calls for high temperatures across much of the country's central and southern states, with some places expected to surpass 100 degrees for the American holiday. So it may come as a surprise that despite this heat, the planet is actually about as far away from the sun as it ever gets.

At about 11 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on the Fourth of July, the Earth will reach that point in its orbit where it is farthest from the sun. Called aphelion, this location in Earth's orbit puts the planet about 94.5 million miles (152 million kilometers) from the sun. That's about 3.1 million miles (4.9 million km) more than the Earth's closest distance to the sun (called perihelion), which occurred on Jan. 3. 

The exact difference in the distance between Earth's closest and farthest points from the sun is 3,104,641 miles (4 996 435 km), or 3.28 percent, which makes a difference in radiant heat received by the planet of nearly 7 percent. The average distance between the Earth and sun is about 93 million miles (150 million km). [10 Extreme Planet Facts]

Closer doesn't necessarily mean hotter

If you ask most people in the Northern Hemisphere which month of the year they think the Earth is closest to the sun, they may likely say it happens in June, July or August, some of the hottest months of the year.  

But our warm weather doesn’t relate to our distance from the sun. It's because of the 23.5-degree tilt of the Earth's axis that the sun is above the horizon for different lengths of time at different seasons. The tilt determines whether the sun's rays strike us at a low angle or more directly. 

At New York's latitude, the more nearly direct rays at the summer solstice of June 21 bring about three times as much heat as the more slanting rays at the winter solstice on Dec. 21. Heat received by any region is dependent on the length of daylight and the angle of the sun above the horizon.

So there are noticeable differences in temperatures that are registered over different parts of the world, including the Southern Hemisphere, where it is winter right now.

A climate fallacy

When I attended Henry Bruckner Junior High School in The Bronx, my earth science teacher, Mr. Shenberg, told all of us that because Earth is farthest from the sun in July and closest in December, that such a difference would tend to warm the winters and cool the summers … at least in the Northern Hemisphere. 

And yet the truth of the matter is that the preponderance of large land masses in the Northern Hemisphere works the other way, and actually tends to make the winters colder and the summers hotter.   

Interestingly, the times when the Earth lies at its closest and farthest points from the sun roughly coincide with two significant holidays. When Earth is closest to the sun around New Year's Day and farthest from the sun around Independence Day.

Depending on the year, the date of perihelion can vary from Jan. 1 to 5, while the date of aphelion can vary from July 2 to July 6.

So while you're out in the Fourth of July sun this holiday, take a moment to appreciate the celestial dance the Earth is making at the exact same time and enjoy the sunshine.

Joe Rao serves as an instructor and guest lecturer at New York's Hayden Planetarium. He writes about astronomy for The New York Times and other publications, and he is also an on-camera meteorologist for News 12 Westchester, N.Y.

View the original article here

Search for missing tornado victims enters fourth day (AFP)

JOPLIN, Missouri (AFP) – Rescuers and anguished families were still searching for hundreds of missing people on Thursday, four days after a tornado battered this US town, killing at least 125 people.

So far painstaking searches through the devastated homes of Joplin rescuers found no one in the rubble on Wednesday -- dead or alive.

"We're disappointed, but we're also relieved that we didn't find people in there," fire chief Mitch Randles said.

As of Wednesday, nearly 1,500 people were still reported missing. Officials expressed hope that many had simply failed to check in with friends or family while warning that the death toll was likely to rise.

In what is one of the worst tornado seasons on record after a series of twisters killed hundreds in southern US states last month, Sunday's twister in Joplin is now the worst single tornado to strike America in six decades.

The massive twister tore apart everything it touched along a path four miles (six kilometers) long and three quarters of a mile (over a kilometer) wide of this city of 50,000.

"It is a devastating scene," said Missouri public safety communications chief Mike O'Connell.

"I have seen a lot of tornado damage in the past, but never such a wide path, such a large path."

Heartbreaking stories were being replayed hourly on the local radio and on social networking sites as people searched for their loved ones, including panicked parents separated from their children.

The family of 16-month-old Skyular Logsdon launched an anxious search using Facebook for the baby boy ripped from his mother's arms by the powerful winds, and late Wednesday there were conflicting reports his body had been identified.

"No, he has not been found," his grandmother, Milissa Burns, posted sadly on the site Wednesday. "I'm following all leads both good and bad... I just pray we all can work together on this. God bless."

Teenager Lantz Hare, who was out driving with friends when the massive funnel cloud struck with winds of up to 200 miles (320 kilometers) an hour, was also missing.

"He was on the phone with another friend, we believe, when the tornado actually hit the car. His friend Ryan says he could literally hear the swoosh came through and the phone went dead," his mother Michelle told CNN.

The American Red Cross has set up a website for people to list the names of the missing, but they have had little success so far reuniting families.

"It's been very difficult. We'd like to see a much greater number of families reunited," said Bill Benson, who is handling the Red Cross's social media and online outreach.

"We have a constant influx of folks coming in desperate, asking can you help me -- we just don't know where to go."

Assistant shelter manager Amanda Marshall is among them -- her four-year-old niece and the girl's grandparents were nowhere to be found when her brother discovered the bodies of his wife and other daughter.

"I keep checking my cell phone -- I'm waiting for a text saying she's OK," Marshall told AFP.

Further complicating matters is the fact that officials have not released the names of the dead.

More than 8,000 structures in this town bordering the heartland states of Kansas and Oklahoma were damaged or destroyed when the twister came roaring through with just a 24-minute warning.

In yet another tragedy, more twisters hit Oklahoma late Tuesday, killing at least eight people.

Joplin avoided a second hit by tornado, but the violent storm system rattled already shaky nerves as residents were forced to seek shelter from strong winds and blinding rain.

US President Barack Obama, on a visit to London, again sent his condolences to the people of Missouri, ahead of a visit to the area on Sunday.

"We have been battered by some storms. Not just this week but over the last several months.

"The largest death toll and devastation we have ever seen from tornadoes in the United States of America," he said.

Missouri Governor Jay Nixon announced plans for a community memorial service Sunday as he vowed to do everything possible to help residents recover and rebuild.

"We're going to battle together and come back as a stronger community," he told reporters.

View the original article here