Southeast England most at risk of rising deaths due to climate change

Warmer summers brought on by climate change will cause more deaths in London and southeast England than the rest of the country, scientists predict.

Researchers at Imperial College London looked at temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to find out which districts in England and Wales experience the biggest effects from warm temperatures.

In the most vulnerable districts, in London and the southeast, the odds of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory causes increased by over 10 per cent for every 1C rise in temperature. Districts in the far north were much more resilient, seeing no increase in deaths at equivalent temperatures.

Writing in Nature Climate Change, the researchers say local variations in climate change vulnerability should be taken into account when assessing the risks and choosing policy responses.

Dr James Bennett, the lead author of the study from the MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health at Imperial College London, said: “It’s well known that warm weather can increase the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory deaths, especially in elderly people. Climate change is expected to raise average temperatures and increase temperature variability, so we can expect it to have effects on mortality even in countries like the UK with a temperate climate.”

Across England and Wales as a whole, a summer that is 2C warmer than average would be expected to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the study found. Just over half would be in people aged over 85, and 62 per cent would be in women. The extra deaths would be distributed unevenly, with 95 out of 376 districts accounting for half of all deaths.

The effects of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. The most vulnerable districts included deprived districts in London such as Hackney and Tower Hamlets, with the odds of dying more than doubling on very hot days like those of August 2003.

“The reasons for the uneven distribution of deaths in warm weather need to be studied,” said Professor Majid Ezzati, from the School of Public Health at Imperial, who led the research. “It might be due to more vulnerable individuals being concentrated in some areas, or it might be related to differences at the community level, like quality of healthcare, that require government action.

“We might expect that people in areas that tend to be warmer would be more resilient, because they adapt by installing air conditioning for example. These results show that this isn’t the case in England and Wales.

“While climate change is a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to its effects are highly local. Many things can be done at the local level to reduce the impact of warm spells, like alerting the public and planning for emergency services. Detailed information about which communities are most at risk from high temperatures can help to inform these strategies.”

The researchers received funding from the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

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To ease impact of quota cuts on New England groundfisheries, NOAA proposes opening long-time closure areas

July 10, 2013

Map showing proposed areas to be re-opened after long-time closure.

Download here (Credit: NOAA)

As part of an overall effort to help fishermen adjust to new quota cuts for groundfish implemented last month, today, NOAA Fisheries announced a proposal to open approximately 33 percent of areas currently closed to protect groundfish and habitat that have been off limits for nearly 20 years -- that is 2,925 square miles of the approximately 8,920 sq miles currently closed. The proposal also includes protections to ensure that habitat, vulnerable groundfish stocks, and other species, such as whales and harbor porpoise, are not put at risk.

In April, based largely on advice from the New England Fishery Management Council, NOAA Fisheries announced its final management measures for the Northeast groundfish fishery, including much lower quotas for some key stocks. Those measures went into effect in May. NOAA Fisheries has been working for months to lessen the effects of these cuts on fishermen and fishing communities, including increasing quotas and approving use of various gear and fishing methods to help fishermen better target healthy groundfish and other stocks prior to today’s announcement.

“We’ve been working with fishermen, state managers and others to find creative ways to help fishermen identify sustainable fishing opportunities this year,” said John Bullard, NOAA Fisheries northeast regional administrator. “Today’s action is another step in our overall effort to help transition fishing effort to healthy, more abundant fish stocks, while we work to rebuild cod and other stocks in poor condition and protect important habitats that are crucial for the overall health of our marine ecosystems.”

The three offshore areas under consideration lie to the south and east of Cape Cod. NOAA Fisheries does not propose to reopen these areas in their entirety; specific sections will remain closed based on the Council’s recommendations to protect habitat. Also, catch of stocks that are in poor condition, such as Georges Bank yellowtail and cod stocks, or are spawning, will be minimized through seasonal restrictions and the use of selective trawl and hook gear.

While these areas have been closed to groundfishing, other fishing activities have occurred in portions of these areas including lobster fishing. NOAA Fisheries also proposes to enact an agreement negotiated between groundfish and lobster fishermen, and recommended by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, which limits groundfishing to times of year when lobster fishing is not as prevalent to minimize the potential for conflict between gear types.

“When year-round closures were put in place, our main goal was to reduce groundfish catch. However, now that fishermen are operating under annual catch limits, we no longer need year-round closures to control total catch but some areas still need to remain closed to protect habitat and those that we open must be opened in a responsible and sustainable way,” continued Bullard.

In areas that NOAA Fisheries is proposing to reopen, the agency is proposing to require monitoring on all fishing trips to gather data on fish caught and possible interactions with whales, harbor porpoise, and other animals. Fishing vessel operators wanting access to these areas will be required to cover the cost of monitoring.

NOAA Fisheries is also proposing to keep inshore year-round closures in place. This decision is due to the poor condition of Gulf of Maine cod and haddock and concerns expressed by a number of commercial and recreational fishermen and members of the environmental community.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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New England snow snarls holiday travel, sparks outages (Reuters)

CONWAY, Mass (Reuters) – A wintry storm socked New England states with a mix of heavy snow and freezing rain on Wednesday, sparking power outages and delaying some pre-Thanksgiving flights on one of the busiest travel days of the year.

Roughly 17,000 customers from Maine to New York were without electricity by midafternoon after heavy snow toppled trees, limbs and power lines in some places.

Rain eased up in the Mid-Atlantic after downpours overnight, but as much as 10 inches of snow was forecast across the higher elevations of upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine by afternoon, when the storm was expected to end, the National Weather Service said.

" high-impact winter storm will adversely affect holiday travel early this morning and into this afternoon," NWS said in a winter storm warning.

"People should plan their travel accordingly and be prepared to allow plenty of extra time to reach their destination."

By midafternoon, power outages included 9,800 customers in Maine, 3,100 in New Hampshire, 2,800 in Vermont, and roughly 1,000 customers in New York.

In southern Vermont, utility crews scrambled to repair lines knocked out by 8 inches of heavy wet snow, said Central Vermont Public Service spokeswoman Christine Rivers.

In Maine, up to 10 inches of snow was predicted for the mid-state region around Bangor and Orono, with freezing rain expected along the coast. State police urged drivers to go slow as roads turn slippery or to avoid road travel altogether, if possible.

The day before Thanksgiving is a notoriously busy travel day, as friends and families gather to share the annual feast to commemorate the Pilgrims' celebration of the good harvest of 1621.

On the roads, some 38.2 million Americans are expected to drive 50 miles or more away from home between November 23 and 27, up 4 percent from last year and the highest since 2007, said travel group AAA.

Airports were bracing for roughly 23.2 million people expected to fly U.S. carriers' domestic and international routes over the Thanksgiving holiday period, according to industry group ATA.

While there were no major tie-ups at Boston's Logan Airport, numerous planes had slight delays and several flights to New York City and Toronto were canceled, said Massport's Logan spokesman Phil Orlandella.

"Yesterday we handled about 100,000 people and we expect to do the same, or somewhere near there, today," Orlandella said.

New England carrier Cape Air canceled most flights to or from Maine, New Hampshire, New York's Adirondacks region and Vermont due to the bad weather, Orlandella said.

"The heavy snow has avoided major cities in the Northeast - it's been well north, and north of Boston -- but these cities got hit with a lot of rain last night, and locally gusty winds, and that has flights backed up," said Alex Sosnowski, expert senior meteorologist with AccuWeather.

With the storm moving out to sea overnight, strong winds currently buffeting New York City should die down by Thursday morning for the annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade, Sosnowski said.

The parade's huge inflatable balloons typically are grounded when winds exceed a danger threshold of about 34 miles per hour, Sosnowski said.

"There is some 'canyon effect' there in New York City - the air rushes in between the buildings. But tomorrow, winds should average 8 - 15 miles per hour, with gusts to 25," he said.

Amtrak had no storm-related problems with its northeastern train service by midmorning, said spokesman Cliff Cole.

In the Pacific Northwest, a strong storm that pounded the region in prior days had tapered off, but a second one was seen delivering fierce winds to the area on Thanksgiving Day, forecasters said.

The Cascade Mountains, the Coastal Range and the Rockies also may get over a foot of snow in the next two days, the National Weather Service said.

(Editing by Barbara Goldberg and Greg McCune)

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