Southeast England most at risk of rising deaths due to climate change

Warmer summers brought on by climate change will cause more deaths in London and southeast England than the rest of the country, scientists predict.

Researchers at Imperial College London looked at temperature records and mortality figures for 2001 to 2010 to find out which districts in England and Wales experience the biggest effects from warm temperatures.

In the most vulnerable districts, in London and the southeast, the odds of dying from cardiovascular or respiratory causes increased by over 10 per cent for every 1C rise in temperature. Districts in the far north were much more resilient, seeing no increase in deaths at equivalent temperatures.

Writing in Nature Climate Change, the researchers say local variations in climate change vulnerability should be taken into account when assessing the risks and choosing policy responses.

Dr James Bennett, the lead author of the study from the MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health at Imperial College London, said: “It’s well known that warm weather can increase the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory deaths, especially in elderly people. Climate change is expected to raise average temperatures and increase temperature variability, so we can expect it to have effects on mortality even in countries like the UK with a temperate climate.”

Across England and Wales as a whole, a summer that is 2C warmer than average would be expected to cause around 1,550 extra deaths, the study found. Just over half would be in people aged over 85, and 62 per cent would be in women. The extra deaths would be distributed unevenly, with 95 out of 376 districts accounting for half of all deaths.

The effects of warm temperature were similar in urban and rural districts. The most vulnerable districts included deprived districts in London such as Hackney and Tower Hamlets, with the odds of dying more than doubling on very hot days like those of August 2003.

“The reasons for the uneven distribution of deaths in warm weather need to be studied,” said Professor Majid Ezzati, from the School of Public Health at Imperial, who led the research. “It might be due to more vulnerable individuals being concentrated in some areas, or it might be related to differences at the community level, like quality of healthcare, that require government action.

“We might expect that people in areas that tend to be warmer would be more resilient, because they adapt by installing air conditioning for example. These results show that this isn’t the case in England and Wales.

“While climate change is a global phenomenon, resilience and vulnerability to its effects are highly local. Many things can be done at the local level to reduce the impact of warm spells, like alerting the public and planning for emergency services. Detailed information about which communities are most at risk from high temperatures can help to inform these strategies.”

The researchers received funding from the Medical Research Council, Public Health England, and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Imperial Biomedical Research Centre.

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Climate change will improve survival rates of British bird -- the long-tailed tit

Climate change may be bad news for billions, but scientists at the University of Sheffield have discovered one unlikely winner -- a tiny British bird, the long-tailed tit.

Like other small animals that live for only two or three years, these birds had until now been thought to die in large numbers during cold winters. But new research suggests that warm weather during spring instead holds the key to their survival.

The findings come from a 20-year study of long-tailed tits run by Professor Ben Hatchwell at the Department of Animal and Plant Sciences. The recent work is led by PhD student Philippa Gullett and Dr Karl Evans from Sheffield, in collaboration with Rob Robinson from the British Trust for Ornithology.

"During spring, birds must work their socks off to raise their chicks," said Philippa Gullett.

"For most small birds that live for only two or three years, not raising any chicks one year is a disaster. They might only get one more chance, so they can't afford to fail."

No surprise then that these birds are willing to invest everything and risk death if it means their young survive. The surprise is that weather makes all the difference. The research discovered that birds trying to breed in warm and dry springs have much better chances of surviving to the next year -- a novel result that counters common assumptions about the cause of death for small birds.

"What seems to be going on is that the tits try to raise their chicks at any cost," added Ms Gullett.

"If it's cold and wet in spring, that makes their job much tougher. Food is harder to find; eggs and chicks are at risk of getting cold. The result is that by the end of the breeding season, the adult birds are exhausted."

The study found no real effect of winter weather in recent years on adult survival, however cold and wet autumns were associated with a higher death rate.

"We're not saying that birds never die in winter -- in harsh years there are bound to be some fatalities," explained Dr Karl Evans.

"However, it seems that in most years autumn weather plays a bigger role, perhaps acting as a filter that weeds out weaker birds before the real winter hits."

Although autumns may get wetter in the coming years, any increase in mortality is likely to be offset by the benefits of warmer breeding seasons, when more benign conditions reduce the costs of breeding.

Dr Evans added: "Looking ahead to the future, our data suggests that every single plausible climate change scenario will lead to a further increase in long-tailed survival rates. While many species struggle to adjust to climate change, these delightful birds seem likely to be winners."

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Climate change could increase thunderstorm severity, climatologist predicts

This spring may be more like a lion than a lamb. John Harrington Jr. is a synoptic climatologist and professor of geography at Kansas State University who studies weather events, how often they occur and the conditions when they occurred. He says climate change may be increasing the severity of storms.

"One of the big concerns I have is that the warmer atmospheric temperatures will drive a little bit more evaporation out of the ocean and the Gulf of Mexico," Harrington said. "One of the things that helps storms be stronger is having more moisture, so that added moisture may increase the height and severity of a tall cumulonimbus thunderstorm cloud."

Harrington said the added moisture might make storms stronger and more potent in the future.

This year may also bring a change in weather conditions due to El Ni?o, which the United States hasn’t experienced for about two years. El Ni?o warms the temperature of the Pacific Ocean, which creates cooler and wetter conditions for the West Coast. Harrington says there is a good possibility El Ni?o will arrive this fall going into winter.

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Over demanding market affects fisheries more than climate change

Fisheries that rely on short life species, such as shrimp or sardine, have been more affected by climate change, because this phenomenon affects chlorophyll production, which is vital for phytoplankton, the main food for both species.

Disclosed by the research "Socioeconomic Impact of the global change over the fishing resources of the Mexican Pacific" headed by Ernesto A. Ch?vez Ortiz, from the National Polytechnic Institute (IPN).

Work performed at the Interdisciplinary Center of Marine Sciences (CICIMAR) from the IPN, indicates that in the last five years there have been no "spectacular" changes attributable to climate change, what has affected the fishing resources more is the over demanding market.

"Globally, a great part of the fishing resources is being exploited to its maximum capacity, several have overpass its regeneration capacities and are overexploited" Ch?vez Ortiz points out.

The specialist at CICIMAR details that the research consisted in exploratory weather and fisheries analysis, and confirmed what has been intuitively said for a while: a lot of the variability in the fishing is due to climate change, the problem is that evidence hadn't been found to prove it.

"In the research we found a clear and objective way to show it: we took historical data from FAO regarding fisheries, available since 1950, compared it to the data of weather variability and found high correlations.

Change patterns were identified, for example, while in the 70's the sardine production increases, in the 80's it decreases below average levels, meanwhile shrimp fishing increased above average but decreased in the 90's.

This way, climate changes were identified in the mid 70's and late 80's that affected the fishing of sardine and shrimp in the Mexican Pacific Ocean, possibly attributable to El Ni?o. In the particular case of the shrimp, it effects are related to an input of water from the continent; for example, when there's a good raining season, there will be an increase in the crustacean production, which is reduced when it doesn't rain.

The researcher at CICIMAR clarifies that the analysis of the fisheries, examined in the guidelines of this project, used of a simulation model that allows to evaluate optimal exploitation strategies, possible change in the biomass of the analyzed resources, as well as the long term effects of climate change, like cyclones, and set them apart of those caused by the intensity of the fishing.

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Linking storms to climate change a 'distraction', say experts

Connecting extreme weather to climate change distracts from the need to protect society from high-impact weather events which will continue to happen irrespective of human-induced climate change, say experts.

Writing in the journal Weather, Climate and Society, the University of Manchester researchers argue that cutting greenhouse gas emissions, while crucial to reducing humanity's longer-term impact on the planet, will not eliminate violent storms, tornadoes or flooding and the damage they cause.

The authors suggest that developing greater resilience to extreme weather events must be given greater priority if the socioeconomic impact of storms, like those that have ravaged Britain this winter, is to be reduced.

Professor David Schultz, one of the authors of the guest editorial, said: "One of the long-term effects of climate change is often predicted to be an increase in the intensity and frequency of many high-impact weather events, so reducing greenhouse gas emissions is often seen to be the response to the problem.

"Reducing humanity's impact on our planet should be pursued as a matter of urgency, but more emphasis must also be placed on being resilient to individual weather events, as this year's storms in Britain have so devastatingly shown."

In the past, say the authors, society responded to weather disasters with calls for greater resilience, but public awareness of humanmade climate change has given climate timescales (decades and centuries) far greater importance than weather timescales (days and years)

Schultz, a professor of synoptic meteorology, and co-author Dr Vladimir Jankovic, a science historian specialising in weather and climate, say the short-term, large variability from year to year in high-impact weather makes it difficult, if not impossible, to draw conclusions about the correlation to longer-term climate change.

They argue that while large public investments in dams and flood defences, for example, must account for the possibilities of how weather might change in the future, this should not prevent short-term thinking to address more immediate vulnerability to inevitable high-impact weather events.

"Avoiding construction in floodplains, implementing strong building codes, and increasing preparedness can make society more resilient to extreme weather events," said Dr Jankovic. "But compounding the problem is that finding money for recovery is easier than spending on prevention, even if the costs of recovery are much higher."

This bias, say the authors, has a tendency to diminish the political dedication for preventative measures against extreme weather, regardless of whether they are caused or intensified by humanmade influences. Yet, steps taken to protect society from the weather can protect the planet as well, they argue.

Dr Jankovic said: "Improving forecasting, increasing preparedness or building better infrastructure can increase resilience and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions. For example, greening neighbourhoods or painting roofs lighter colours will both reduce the urban heat-island effect and reduce carbon-dioxide emissions through reduced air-conditioning costs, while making cities more resistant to storm damage would reduce emissions generated from rebuilding devastated areas."

Professor Schultz added: "Linking high-impact weather events with climate change can be distracting; perpetuating the idea that reducing greenhouse gases would be enough to reduce increasingly vulnerable world populations, in our view, only confuses the public and policy-makers as to the socio-economic susceptibility to extreme weather.

"With or without mitigation, there is no quick-fix, single-cause solution for the problem of human vulnerability to socio-environmental change, nor is there a reasonable prospect of attenuating high-impact weather. Addressing such issues would give the world an opportunity to develop a two-pronged policy in climate security, reducing longer-term climate risks in conjunction with preventing shorter-term weather disasters."

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Major reductions in seafloor marine life from climate change by 2100

A new study quantifies for the first time future losses in deep-sea marine life, using advanced climate models. Results show that even the most remote deep-sea ecosystems are not safe from the impacts of climate change.

An international team of scientists predict seafloor dwelling marine life will decline by up to 38 per cent in the North Atlantic and over five per cent globally over the next century. These changes will be driven by a reduction in the plants and animals that live at the surface of the oceans that feed deep-sea communities. As a result, ecosystem services such as fishing will be threatened.

In the study, led by the National Oceanography Centre, the team used the latest suite of climate models to predict changes in food supply throughout the world oceans. They then applied a relationship between food supply and biomass calculated from a huge global database of marine life.

The results of the study are published this week in the scientific journal Global Change Biology.

These changes in seafloor communities are expected despite living on average four kilometres under the surface of the ocean. This is because their food source, the remains of surface ocean marine life that sink to the seafloor, will dwindle because of a decline in nutrient availability. Nutrient supplies will suffer because of climate impacts such as a slowing of the global ocean circulation, as well as increased separation between water masses -- known as 'stratification' -- as a result of warmer and rainier weather.

Lead author Dr Daniel Jones says: "There has been some speculation about climate change impacts on the seafloor, but we wanted to try and make numerical projections for these changes and estimate specifically where they would occur.

"We were expecting some negative changes around the world, but the extent of changes, particularly in the North Atlantic, were staggering. Globally we are talking about losses of marine life weighing more than every person on the planet put together."

The projected changes in marine life are not consistent across the world, but most areas will experience negative change. Over 80 per cent of all identified key habitats -- such as cold-water coral reefs, seamounts and canyons -- will suffer losses in total biomass. The analysis also predicts that animals will get smaller. Smaller animals tend to use energy less efficiently, thereby impacting seabed fisheries and exacerbating the effects of the overall declines in available food.

The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) as part of the Marine Environmental Mapping Programme (MAREMAP), and involved researchers from the National Oceanography Centre, the Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada, the University of Tasmania, and the Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, France.

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Climate change threatens Winter Olympics: Only six of previous Winter Games venues to be cold enough by late-century

Only six of the previous Winter Olympics host cities will be cold enough to reliably host the Games by the end of this century if global warming projections prove accurate.

Even with conservative climate projections, only 11 of the previous 19 sites could host the Games in the coming decades, according to a new study from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and Management Center Innsbruck (Austria).

"The cultural legacy of the world's celebration of winter sport is increasingly at risk," said Professor Daniel Scott, a Canada Research Chair in Global Tourism and lead author of the study. "Fewer and fewer traditional winter sports regions will be able to host a Olympic Winter Games in a warmer world."

The study finds that internationally renowned Olympic sites, such as Squaw Valley (USA), Garmisch-Partenkirchen (Germany), Vancouver (Canada) and Sochi (Russia) would no longer have climates suitable to reliably host the Games by the middle of the 21st century. With additional warming projected for later decades of this century, as few as six former host locations would remain climatically suitable.

"This report clearly points out the challenges that lie ahead for the Olympics because of climate change," said Chris Steinkamp, executive director of Protect Our Winters and who was not involved with the study. "It's particularly powerful to see how past Olympic host cities could be impacted under a higher emission scenario, so hopefully this will serve as a wake up call to the IOC and world leaders that major commitments to carbon reductions need to be made."

The need for weather risk management strategies by Olympic organizers has intensified as the average February daytime temperature of Winter Games locations has steadily increased -- from 0.4?C at Games held in the 1920-50s, to 3.1?C in Games during the 1960-90s, and 7.8?C in Games held in the 21st century.

"Today it would be difficult to imagine successfully delivering the diverse Games program exclusively on natural ice and snow, as it was in the early decades of the Olympic Winter Games," said Dr. Robert Steiger of the Management Center Innsbruck.

Weather risk management will become even more important in the coming decades with average February temperatures in past Winter Olympic host locations expected to warm an additional 1.9 to 2.1?C by mid-century and 2.7 to 4.4?C in late century.

The study found that the success of the Games is often partially attributed to favourable weather, while poor weather is highlighted as one of the greatest challenges faced by Olympic Organizing Committees. Weather affects the ability to prepare for the Games and can directly impact outdoor opening and closing ceremonies, fairness of outdoor competitions, spectator comfort, transportation, and visibility and timing of television broadcasts.

The study also examines how technological advancements and strategies developed over several decades have been used to manage weather risk at the Winter Olympics. Technology like snowmaking, track/jump refrigeration and high-resolution weather forecasting are now critical components of staging a successful Winter Games.

"Despite technological advances, there are limits to what current weather risk management strategies can cope with," said Professor Scott. "By the middle of this century, these limits will be surpassed in some former Winter Olympic host regions."

The study provides an important opportunity for reflection on the long-term implications of global climate change for the world of sport and the world's collective cultural heritage symbolized by the Olympic Movement. It also reveals that for some cities and regions interested in hosting a future Winter Olympics, the time to bid for the games might be sooner than later.

Report: https://uwaterloo.ca/news/sites/ca.news/files/uploads/files/oly_winter_games_warmer_world_2014.pdf

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Deaths attributed directly to climate change cast pall over penguins

Climate change is killing penguin chicks from the world's largest colony of Magellanic penguins, not just indirectly -- by depriving them of food, as has been repeatedly documented for these and other seabirds -- but directly as a result of drenching rainstorms and, at other times, heat, according to new findings from the University of Washington.

Too big for parents to sit over protectively, but still too young to have grown waterproof feathers, downy penguin chicks exposed to drenching rain can struggle and die of hypothermia in spite of the best efforts of their concerned parents. And during extreme heat, chicks without waterproofing can't take a dip in cooling waters as adults can.

Various research groups have published findings on the reproductive repercussions from single storms or heat waves, events that individually are impossible to tie to climate change. The new results span 27 years of data collected in Argentina under the direction of Dee Boersma, UW biology professor, with the support of the Wildlife Conservation Society, the UW, the Office of Turismo in Argentina's Chubut Province, the Global Penguin Society and the La Regina family. Boersma is lead author of a paper on the findings in the Jan. 29 issue of PLOS ONE.

"It's the first long-term study to show climate change having a major impact on chick survival and reproductive success," said Boersma, who has led field work since 1983 at the world's largest breeding area for Magellanic penguins, about halfway up the Atlantic coast of Argentina at Punta Tombo, where 200,000 pairs reside from September through February to have their young.

During a span of 27 years, an average of 65 percent of chicks died per year, with some 40 percent starving. Climate change, a relatively new cause of chick death, killed an average of 7 percent of chicks per year, but there were years when it was the most common cause of death, killing 43 percent of all chicks one year and fully half in another.

Starvation and weather will likely interact increasingly as climate changes, Boersma said.

"Starving chicks are more likely to die in a storm," she said. "There may not be much we can do to mitigate climate change, but steps could be taken to make sure the Earth's largest colony of Magellanic penguins have enough to eat by creating a marine protected reserve, with regulations on fishing, where penguins forage while raising small chicks."

Rainfall and the number of storms per breeding season have already increased at the Argentine study site, said Ginger Rebstock, UW research scientist and the co-author of the paper. For instance in the first two weeks of December, when all chicks are less than 25 days old and most vulnerable to storm death, the number of storms increased between 1983 and 2010.

"We're going to see years where almost no chicks survive if climate change makes storms bigger and more frequent during vulnerable times of the breeding season as climatologists predict," Rebstock said.

Magellanics are medium-sized penguins standing about 15 inches tall and weighing about 10 pounds. Males of the species sound like braying donkeys when they vocalize. Of the Earth's 17 species of penguins, 10 -- including Magellanics -- breed where there is no snow, it is relatively dry and temperatures can be temperate.

Punta Tombo is so arid that it gets an average of only 4 inches (100 mm) of rain during the six-month breeding season and, sometimes, no rain falls at all. Rain is a problem and kills down-covered chicks ages 9 to 23 days if they can't warm up and dry off after heavy storms in November and December when temperatures are likely to dip. If chicks can live 25 days or more, most have enough juvenile plumage to protect them. Once chicks die, parents do not lay additional eggs that season.

The findings are based on weather information, collected at the regional airport and by researchers in the field, as well as from penguin counts. During the breeding season researchers visit nests once or twice a day to see what is happening and record the contents of the nest, often hunting for chicks when they move around as they get older. When chicks disappear or are found dead, the researchers turn into detectives looking for evidence of starvation, predators or other causes of death such as being pecked or beaten by other penguins.

Just back from two months in the field, Boersma said heat this season took a greater toll on chicks than storms. Such variability between years is the reason why the number of chicks dying from climate change is not a tidy, ever-increasing figure each year. Over time, however, the researchers expect climate change will be an increasingly important cause of death.

Also contributing to increasing deaths from climate change is the fact that, over 27 years, penguin parents have arrived to the breeding site later and later in the year, probably because the fish they eat also are arriving later, Boersma said. The later in the year chicks hatch the more likely they'll still be in their down-covered stage when storms typically pick up in November and December.

Besides the coast of Argentina, Magellanic penguins also breed on the Chile-side of South America and in the Falkand (Malvinas) Islands, breeding ranges they share with some 60 other seabird species. These species also are likely to suffer negative impacts from climate change, losing whole generations as the penguins have in the study area, the co-authors say.

"Increasing storminess bodes ill not only for Magellanic penguins but for many other species," they write.

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Solar activity not a key cause of climate change, study shows

Climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat from the sun, a new scientific study shows.

The findings overturn a widely held scientific view that lengthy periods of warm and cold weather in the past might have been caused by periodic fluctuations in solar activity.

Research examining the causes of climate change in the northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years has shown that until the year 1800, the key driver of periodic changes in climate was volcanic eruptions. These tend to prevent sunlight reaching Earth, causing cool, drier weather. Since 1900, greenhouse gases have been the primary cause of climate change.

The findings show that periods of low sun activity should not be expected to have a large impact on temperatures on Earth, and are expected to improve scientists' understanding and help climate forecasting.

Scientists at the University of Edinburgh carried out the study using records of past temperatures constructed with data from tree rings and other historical sources. They compared this data record with computer-based models of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes in the sun.

They found that their model of weak changes in the sun gave the best correlation with temperature records, indicating that solar activity has had a minimal impact on temperature in the past millennium.

The study, published in Nature GeoScience, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council.

Dr Andrew Schurer, of the University of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, said: "Until now, the influence of the sun on past climate has been poorly understood. We hope that our new discoveries will help improve our understanding of how temperatures have changed over the past few centuries, and improve predictions for how they might develop in future. Links between the sun and anomalously cold winters in the UK are still being explored."

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New study suggests coral reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate change

October 29, 2013

A new modeling study shows that widespread bleaching events like this one in Thailand in 2010 will become more common in the future. However, the study also found signs corals may be adapting to warming -- the question is if it can be fast enough to keep up with the rate humans are burning fossil fuels.

High resolution (Credit:C. Mark Eakin/NOAA )

Coral reefs may be able to adapt to moderate climate warming, improving their chance of surviving through the end of this century, if there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, according to a study funded by NOAA and conducted by the agency’s scientists and its academic partners. Results further suggest corals have already adapted to part of the warming that has occurred.

“Earlier modeling work suggested that coral reefs would be gone by the middle of this century. Our study shows that if corals can adapt to warming that has occurred over the past 40 to 60 years, some coral reefs may persist through the end of this century,” said study lead author Cheryl Logan, Ph.D., an assistant professor in California State University Monterey Bay’s Division of Science and Environmental Policy. The scientists from the university, and from the University of British Columbia, were NOAA’s partners in the study.

Warm water can contribute to a potentially fatal process known as coral “bleaching,” in which reef-building corals eject algae living inside their tissues. Corals bleach when oceans warm only 1-2°C (2-4°F) above normal summertime temperatures. Because those algae supply the coral with most of its food, prolonged bleaching and associated disease often kills corals.

The study, published online in the journal Global Change Biology, explores a range of possible coral adaptive responses to thermal stress previously identified by the scientific community. It suggests that coral reefs may be more resilient than previously thought due to past studies that did not consider effects of possible adaptation.

The study projected that, through genetic adaptation, the reefs could reduce the currently projected rate of temperature-induced bleaching by 20 to 80 percent of levels expected by the year 2100, if there are large reductions in carbon dioxide emissions.

“The hope this work brings is only achieved if there is significant reduction of human-related  emissions of heat-trapping gases,” said Mark Eakin, Ph.D., who serves as director of the NOAA Coral Reef Watch monitoring program, which tracks bleaching events worldwide. “Adaptation provides no significant slowing in the loss of coral reefs if we continue to increase our rate of fossil fuel use.”

“Not all species will be able to adapt fast enough or to the same extent, so coral communities will look and function differently than they do today,” CalState’s Logan said.

While this paper focuses on ocean warming, many other general threats to coral species have been documented to exist that affect their long-term survival, such as coral disease, acidification, and sedimentation. Other threats to corals are sea-level rise, pollution, storm damage, destructive fishing practices, and direct harvest for ornamental trade.

According to the Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2000 report, coral reefs have been lost around the world in recent decades with almost 20 percent of reefs lost globally to high temperatures during the 1998-1999 El Niño and La Niña and an 80 percent percent loss of coral cover in the Caribbean was documented in a 2003 Science paper. Both rates of decline have subsequently been documented in numerous other studies as an on-going trend.

Tropical coral reef ecosystems are among the most diverse ecosystems in the world, and provide economic and social stability to many nations in the form of food security, where reef fish provide both food and fishing jobs, and economic revenue from tourism. Mass coral bleaching and reef death has increased around the world over the past three decades, raising questions about the future of coral reef ecosystems.

In the study, researchers used global sea surface temperature output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model-2 for the pre-industrial period though 2100 to project rates of coral bleaching.

Because initial results showed that past temperature increases should have bleached reefs more often than has actually occurred, researchers looked into ways that corals may be able to adapt to warming and delay the bleaching process.

The article calls for further research to test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if, and how much, corals can actually respond to increasing thermal stress.

In addition to Logan, the other authors of the paper were John Dunne, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory; Eakin, NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch; and Simon Donner, Department of Geography at the University of British Columbia. NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program funded the study.

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Report highlights climate change threats to nation’s estuaries

August 7, 2013

Report on Climate Sensitivity of the National Estuarine Research Reserve System.

Full report. (Credit: NOAA)

The nation’s 28 National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERR) are experiencing the negative effects of human and climate-related stressors according to a new NOAA research report from the National Ocean Service. 

The national study, Climate Sensitivity of the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, points to three East Coast reserves, Sapelo Island NERR in Georgia, ACE Basin NERR in South Carolina and Waquoit Bay NERR in Massachusetts, and  the Tijuana River NERR on the California-Mexico border, as the most sensitive to climate change.

“The National Estuarine Research Reserves are uniquely positioned across the U.S. to assess ongoing climate change in our nation’s estuaries which is the degree to which the natural resources and the local communities who depend on them are affected by changing climate conditions,” said Dwight Trueblood, Ph.D. a co-author and NOAA program manager for the study. “This information is important to helping coastal managers and local community leaders make informed decisions about the best ways for coastal communities to adapt to climate change.”

Estuaries are places where rivers meet the sea, providing nursery habitat for fish and shellfish while buffering many coastal communities from the impacts of coastal storms and sea level rise. The climate exposure of each reserve provides first alarm indicators about the effects of climate change on the coastal ecosystems. Ongoing research at each of the reserves provides real-time data about how climate change impacts these important natural resources.

Almost 40 percent of all Americans, or about 123 million people, live in the counties directly along the shoreline and depend on these resources for food, jobs, storm protection, and recreation. Approximately 50 percent, or $6.6 trillion, of the nation’s gross domestic product comes from coastal watershed counties which support more than 51 million jobs.

Researchers determined the extent of relative climate sensitivity in the reserves by looking at five factors: social, biophysical, and ecological sensitivity, and exposure to temperature change and sea level rise.

Key Findings

Reserve ecological resilience was examined and the key underlying estuarine stressors were found to be toxic pollutants, storm impacts, invasive species, habitat fragmentation, sedimentation and shoreline erosion. The most frequently identified factors contributing to these stressors included residential development, land use, population growth, wastewater treatment and sea level rise.

High social sensitivity to climate change was indicated where there is higher employment within natural resource-dependent industries, lower per capita income and median home values, higher percentages of minority populations, and a higher percentage of individuals lacking a high school education.

Social sensitivity to climate change was generally highest in the southern portions of the East and West coasts of the U.S., the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska.

Tijuana River NERR, California.

High resolution (Credit: Tijuana River NERR)

Biophysical sensitivity summarizes each reserve’s relationship between annual spring atmospheric temperature and rainfall data and water quality factors such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH.

Temperature change exposure risk was greatest for reserves located in the Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast regions of the country, while reserves in the Gulf of Mexico, parts of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, California, and Oregon showed the greatest risk of sea level rise exposure.

The study, funded by NOAA’s Climate Program Office, was conducted by a collaborative, interdisciplinary team of investigators from the University of Wisconsin, NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science, and Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management working with staff across the National Estuarine Research Reserve System.  For a digital copy of the full study is available online.

The National Estuarine Research Reserve System is a network of 28 reserves that serve as “living laboratories” around the U.S. representing unique biogeographically diverse coastal ecosystems. Established under the Coastal Zone Management Act, the reserves are jointly managed by NOAA and the coastal states and territories for long-term research, ecosystems monitoring, education, and coastal stewardship. Through integrated research and education, the reserves help communities develop strategies to deal successfully with coastal resource management issues such as water pollution, habitat restoration and climate change.

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New analyses find evidence of human-caused climate change in half of the 12 extreme weather and climate events analyzed from 2012

September 5, 2013

The "Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective" report was published today by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. (Full report).

High resolution (Credit: U.S. Navy)

Human influences are having an impact on some extreme weather and climate events, according to the report “Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective” released today by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Overall, 18 different research teams from around the world contributed to the peer-reviewed report that examined the causes of 12 extreme events that occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 2012. Scientists from NOAA served as three of the four lead editors on the report.
The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of the 2012 extreme events. However, in some events, the analyses revealed compelling evidence that human-caused climate change, through the emission of heat-trapping gases, also contributed to the extreme event.

“This report adds to a growing ability of climate science to untangle the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). “Nonetheless, determining the causes of extreme events remains challenging.”

In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of four of the events — the warm temperatures in the United States, the record-low levels of Arctic sea ice, and the heavy rain in both northern Europe and eastern Australia — allowed the scientists to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of their various methods of analysis. Despite their different strategies, there was considerable agreement between the assessments of the same events.

Thomas Peterson, Ph.D., principal scientist at NOAA’s NCDC and one of the lead editors on the report, said, “Scientists around the world assessed a wide variety of potential contributing factors to these major extreme events that, in many cases, had large impacts on society. Understanding the range of influences on extreme events helps us to better understand how and why extremes are changing."

Key findings include:

Location and type of events analyzed in the Paper.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

Heat Wave and Drought in United States:

Human-induced climate change had little impact on the lack of precipitation in the central United States in 2012.The 2012 spring and summer heat waves in the U.S. can be mainly explained by natural atmospheric dynamics, however, human-induced climate change was found to be a factor in the magnitude of warmth and was found to have affected the likelihood of such heat waves.  For example: High temperatures, such as those experienced in the U.S. in 2012 are now likely to occur four times as frequently due to human-induced climate change.Approximately 35 percent of the extreme warmth experienced in the eastern U.S. between March and May 2012 can be attributed to human-induced climate change.  

Hurricane Sandy Inundation Probability:

The record-setting impacts of Sandy were largely attributable to the massive storm surge and resulting inundation from the onshore-directed storm path coincident with high tide. However, climate-change related increases in sea level have nearly doubled today’s annual probability of a Sandy-level flood recurrence as compared to 1950. Ongoing natural and human-induced forcing of sea level ensures that Sandy-level inundation events will occur more frequently in the future from storms with less intensity and lower storm surge than Sandy. 

Arctic Sea Ice:

The extremely low Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2012 resulted primarily from the melting of younger, thin ice from a warmed atmosphere and ocean. This event cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Summer Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decrease in the future, and is expected to be largely absent by mid-century.  

Global Rainfall Events:

The unusually high amount of summer rainfall in the United Kingdom in 2012 was largely the result of natural variability. However, there is evidence that rainfall totals are influenced by increases in sea surface temperature and atmospheric moisture which may be linked to human influences on climate.The magnitude of the extreme rainfall experienced over southeastern Australia between October 2011 and March 2012 was mainly associated with La Niña conditions. However, the likelihood of above-average precipitation during March was found to have increased by 5 percent to 15 percent because of human influences on the climate. Extreme rainfall events such as the December 2011 two-day rainfall in Golden Bay, New Zealand, are more likely to occur due to a 1 percent to 5 percent increase in available moisture resulting from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.The July 2012 extreme rainfall events in North China and southwestern Japan were mainly due to natural variability. 

The report was edited by Peterson, along with Martin P. Hoerling, NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory; Peter A. Stott, UK Met Office Hadley Centre and Stephanie C. Herring of NCDC and written by 78 scientists from 11 countries. View the full report online.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and our other social media channels.

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Society not ready for heat waves coming with climate change

Health officials are better prepared for heat waves than they used to be, but they have more to do in the face of climate change, experts say.

Denny Simmons, Evansville Courier & Press/AP

Evelyn Levitt, 7, kneels in the waters of Old National Bank's fountain in Evansville, Ind., on June 25.

Denny Simmons, Evansville Courier & Press/AP

Evelyn Levitt, 7, kneels in the waters of Old National Bank's fountain in Evansville, Ind., on June 25.

"Nationally and internationally we are much more aware of the danger of extreme heat than we were in 1995," says sociologist Eric Klinenberg, author of Heat Wave: A social autopsy of disaster in Chicago, about the three-day heat wave that caused 739 excess deaths and thousands of hospitalizations in 1995.

"We're more prepared than we were in 1995. A lot of Americans are still vulnerable, and our power grid is vulnerable, too."

Medical workers reported few problems related to the past week's heat wave in parts of the USA that suffered extreme temperatures but were spared Friday night's storms that knocked out power to more than 3 million customers.

But in the District of Columbia, where heat and power outages struck together, sick patients at home who rely on electronic medical devices suffered doubly, and hospitals had to improvise, says Bill Frohna, chairman of the emergency department at MedStar Washington Hospital Center. "Before the storm came we saw some heat-related stuff, but once you throw the power issue on top of the heat, families didn't know what to do," Frohna said. "When no one has power they don't have a backup plan."

Even the Washington hospital had a plan for heat and a plan for outages, but not a plan for the two together, Frohna said.

After storms cut power to millions, hospital workers Saturday saw a spike in patients with chronic diseases who need electricity to operate home dialysis units and machines that deliver intravenous fluids, medications, tube feedings and oxygen, Frohna said.

Many arrived at the hospital with temperatures of 104 and could have been discharged after emergency cooling treatment and hydration, if they had a safe place to go, but they didn't, Frohna said.

Instead, hospital workers opened waiting spaces in part of the emergency room and the hospital's central registration area to let patients convalesce with their family members while caseworkers searched for cool, safe places with power where they can be sent.

Overall, the hospital saw a daily increase of 15% to 30% above normal during the weekend and Monday, Frohna said.

"Saturday (was) one of our biggest Saturdays in recent memory," he said.

Parts of the country that did not lose power because of the storm fared better.

In Indiana, where the heat wave has been going strong for a week, 153 emergency patients visited the state's emergency rooms for heat-related issues in all of last week, says Amy Reel, spokeswoman for the Indiana State Department of Health. The number of heat-related injuries has been relatively small because everyone is taking the heat seriously, says Wishard Hospital emergency physician John Boe. "There's more awareness of how dangerous this kind of weather can be," Boe said.

The news media have gotten better at getting the word out. Hospitals are better prepared. Public officials have made more cooling centers available and neighbors are checking on neighbors without air conditioning, Boe said.

Boe, who teaches at Indiana University's Department of Emergency Medicine, says the Chicago heat wave of 1995 was a turning point in his field.

"In our teachings, they always talk about the Chicago heat wave," he said.

Multiple factors led to the high death toll of the Chicago heat wave, Klinenberg says. High humidity combined with triple-digit heat and little nighttime cooling to turn the lakeside city into a furnace. Mayor Richard Daley and the city's fire and health commissioners were away on vacation. And the city failed to implement its plan for extreme heat, Klinenberg says.

High demand for electricity caused outages, and much of the city lost water as residents opened hydrants to cool off and then fought with city officials trying to close them. Most of the fatalities were elderly, isolated bachelors in the poorest sections of town, Klinenberg says.

Even worse disasters happened in Europe in 2003, when 70,000 excess deaths were caused by an extreme heat event that lasted three weeks, and in Russia in 2010, when a heat wave caused 50,000 excess deaths.

The USA has yet to experience such an extreme heat event, but some experts believe that with climate change it's only a matter of time.

Climate projections see global warming driving longer, warmer and more frequent heat waves for North America in coming years, says Princeton climate scientist Ngar-Cheung Lau.

Essentially, global warming raises the odds of heat waves, and at the same time worsens their effects due to the warmer temperature it brings on average, he says. "One cannot attach certainty to any one weather event being driven by climate change, but this heat wave is certainly striking in its size, severity and duration, similar to the sort of heat waves seen in climate projections," Lau says.

Klinenberg says cities such as Washington, Philadelphia and New York City are ill prepared.

"We need to make sure that cities can get through the worst heat wave," he says. "In New York City, police officers drive through streets using loudspeakers asking people to turn down their air conditioning during the day. The power grid can't handle it."

Contributing: Dan Vergano

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Public support slips for steps to curb climate change

From gas-mileage standards to tax breaks for windmills, public support for "green" energy measures to tackle global warming has dropped significantly in the past two years, particularly among Republicans, a new poll suggests.

By Mark Dadswell, Getty Images

Wind generators are seen in Australia. Americans' support for various steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions has dropped significantly in the past two years, a new poll suggests.

By Mark Dadswell, Getty Images

Wind generators are seen in Australia. Americans' support for various steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions has dropped significantly in the past two years, a new poll suggests.

Majorities still favor most such tax breaks or restrictions on industry, finds the Stanford University poll to be released today. It shows 65% support gas-mileage standards and 73% support tax breaks for wind and solar power. But just 43% support tax breaks for nuclear power, 26% support increasing gasoline taxes and 18% support hiking taxes on home electricity.

Overall, support for various steps to cut greenhouse gas emissions has dropped an average of 10 percentage points since 2010, from 72% to 62%, lead researcher Jon Krosnick says. "Most Americans (62%) still support industry taking steps aimed at cutting greenhouse gas emissions," Krosnick says, "but they hate the idea of consumer taxes to do it." His group's nationwide polls compared responses from 1,001 people in 2010 to 1,428 people this year.

In 2010, the National Academy of Sciences called for "strong federal policies" to curb greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels, such as oil, gasoline, coal and natural gas. It warned that "climate change is occurring" and said these fuels are partly to blame. The warning came after the failure in 2009 of a Senate bill that would have created a U.S. market for rights to buy and sell greenhouse gas emissions credits.

In a March Gallup poll, 53% of Americans agreed that "global warming is caused by pollution resulting from human activities," similar to percentages in past years.

Public opinion experts including Drexel University's Robert Brulle point to declining news coverage of global warming for the falling support of steps to fight greenhouse gases; others cite the economy's doldrums.

Krosnick suggests that distrust of environmental scientists among Republican voters, expressed by about 41% of them in the poll, may explain much of the drop. Such distrust was not seen as strongly among independent and Democratic voters, he says. The average drop in support for these policies was about 7 percentage points among those who identified themselves as Democrats or independents vs. 14 points for Republicans.

Since Republican Sen. John McCain expressed support for steps to slow global warming during the 2008 presidential race, "we have seen a significant shift in political rhetoric in the primary races in Republican debates," Krosnick says. (McCain says he no longer supports such steps.) This year, Republican debates regularly featured the views of likely nominee Mitt Romney, who has said, "We don't know what's causing climate change."

Brulle says the effect of the economy on views about climate change needs to be more carefully studied.

Even if the public supports steps to address global warming, Brulle says, "opinion on climate change and environmental issues overall has consistently ranked at the bottom of the overall public concerns" in polling. Just 1% of people ranked the environment as a "top concern" in the Gallup Poll in March.

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'SimCity' game rebuilt for age of climate change

Climate change is coming to SimCity.

A new version of the city-building computer game that factors in real-world consequences of energy choices has won endorsements from Twitter co-founder Biz Stone and the director of the Academy Award-winning documentary "An Inconvenient Truth."

"We are updating SimCity with technology of today and introducing it to a new generation of gamers," Maxis studio senior vice president Lucy Bradshaw said at this year's Game Developers Conference in San Francisco.

"It gets under your skin; exposes you to the idea of cause and effect and that choices you make have repercussions," she said.

Millions of people have played SimCity since the computer game designed by Will Wright was first released in 1989.

The original title won a broad, devoted following and led to a successful franchise of "Sims" strategy games in which players manipulate worlds and animated characters in simulations of real life.

"Sims 3 Showtime" software, released on Tuesday as an addition to the latest version of the game, lets players act out fantasies of becoming famous singers, acrobats, magicians or DJs.

The $40 expansion pack adds a host of features, including one allowing players to send their characters into other people's games via the Internet with a capability called "SimPort."

While the franchise has thrived, it has been nearly a decade since the release of the last version of SimCity for desktop or laptop computers. A Maxis team will have a fresh SimCity title ready in 2013, according to Bradshaw.

Along with rich 3-D graphics, the game will have a new simulation engine that enhances its realism and extends ramifications of urban design decisions past borders to affect neighboring cities.

"In 'SimCity' resources are finite, you struggle with decisions people are struggling with today in the real world and your decisions can have a global impact," Bradshaw said.

"Be a polluter and you are ultimately going to affect your friends' cities... Will you have the wealthiest, fittest, greenest city ever or the sludgiest, most yikes-worthy SimCity ever?"

Maxis collaborated on the title with Games For Change, a group devoted to the creation of games that combine fun with learning about social issues.

"I love the game," said "Inconvenient Truth" director Davis Guggenheim, who played an early version with his son.

"Climate change is the biggest crisis of our time, but there is a disconnect because it is not in front of us," he added.

"When you play 'SimCity' it is in your face; if you build a coal power plant you feel the consequences -- smog in the city, water table getting dirty, and your people getting angry."

Twitter co-founder Stone is also among the early fans of the new "SimCity," which he said was in tune with his new initiative to support systems that help make "better humans, a smarter world and a healthier planet."

Stone left his day-to-day role at Twitter last year to devote time to Obvious Corporation, which he established with fellow Twitter co-founder Evan Williams and Jason Goldman.

"While I'm not a gamer I understand the learning power of play," Stone said.

"Learning the cause and effect and the impact you could have as an individual or a corporation is huge... The 'SimCity' overview puts us in that frame of mind."

Bradshaw noted that 'SimCity' has always blended realism and fantasy, "so you never know when a giant lizard might trundle around a corner and blow your buildings down."

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Climate change could increase storm surges

Last year's most devastating tropical system -- Hurricane Irene -- was considered by some experts to be a "100-year-event," a storm that comes around only once a century.

Irene lashed the East Coast in August, killing at least 45 people and leading to $7.6 billion in damages.

But a study out this week in Nature Climate Change says that due to global warming, these monster storms could make landfall more frequently, causing destructive storm surges every 3 to 20 years instead of once a century.

The lead author of the study was Ning Lin of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who partnered with scientists at Princeton University to undertake the research.

Lin and her colleagues used computer models to simulate future hurricanes, looking at the impact of climate change on storm surges, with New York City as a case study. The team simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions.

Today, a "100-year storm" has a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York City. But with added greenhouse gas emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels, the computer models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years.

Lin says that knowing the frequency of storm surges may help urban and coastal planners design seawalls and other protective structures.

While the number of hurricanes globally may or may not increase due to global warming, some scientists say that the ones that do form could be more intense than they would be otherwise.

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Climate Change Panel Predicts More Intense Weather Events (ContributorNetwork)

According to NPR, a recent meeting of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which included more than 200 scientists, concluded with a report stating it expects climate change to bring more intense weather events. The panel specifically noted more rainfall, heat waves and other natural disasters are in the forecast as a result of climate change.

The IPCC notes the frequency of heavy rainfall will likely increase this century in many different regions. Additionally, more powerful hurricanes and typhoons are likely to occur, but these events will see a gradual, small increase instead of a steep one. With the debut of this report, here are some facts about climate change:

* Since the industrial revolution, the burning of fuel and constant deforestation has led to the release of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

* These greenhouse gases prevent heat from re-entering space and create a warming effect, also known as global warming or climate change, on the earth.

* The Washington State Department of Ecology notes while climate change can impact weather events, it also has the potential to impact agriculture, human health, water resources, and energy use.

* Despite the fact there is a warming trend, different regions will experience changes differently as well and there is the possibility that a few areas could see temperatures drop instead of increasing.

* In the late 1990s, numerous nations attempted to join together to establish the Kyoto Protocol, a treaty designed to ensure countries would commit to combating climate change.

* The U.S. failed to ratify the treaty over concerns that China and India would not have to follow the outlined changes or commit to reducing their own emissions.

* Nearly a decade later in Copenhagen, Denmark, world leaders met again to discuss and reach agreements on the growing concern of global warming.

* The 2009 summit focused on the dispute between the U.S. and China and if the nations couldn't agree it could have potentially killed any further international agreements at the summit.

* President Barack Obama also attended and spoke at the summit to help work out disagreements over China joining the pledge and although they fell short of expectations, agreements were finally reached.

Rachel Bogart provides an in-depth look at current environmental issues and local Chicago news stories. As a college student from the Chicago suburbs pursuing two science degrees, she applies her knowledge and passion to both topics to garner further public awareness.

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Extreme weather to worsen with climate change: IPCC (Reuters)

KAMPALA (Reuters) – An increase in heat waves is almost certain, while heavier rainfall, more floods, stronger cyclones, landslides and more intense droughts are likely across the globe this century as the Earth's climate warms, U.N. scientists said on Friday.

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) urged countries to come up with disaster management plans to adapt to the growing risk of extreme weather events linked to human-induced climate change, in a report released in Uganda on Friday.

The report gives differing probabilities for extreme weather events based on future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, but the thrust is that extreme weather is likely to increase.

"It is virtually certain that increases in the frequency and magnitude of warm daily temperature extremes ... will occur in the 21st century on the global scale," the IPCC report said.

"It is very likely that the length, frequency and/or intensity of warm spells, or heat waves, will increase," it added.

"A 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions," under one emissions scenario.

An exception is in very high latitudes, it said. Heat waves would likely get hotter by "1 degrees C to 3 degrees C by mid-21st century and by about 2 degrees C to 5 degrees C by late-21st century, depending on region and emissions scenario."

Delegates from nearly 200 countries will meet in South Africa from November 28 for climate talks with the most likely outcome modest steps toward a broader deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions to fight climate change.

CARBON EMISSIONS UP

The United Nations, the International Energy Agency and others say global pledges to curb emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are not enough to prevent the planet heating up beyond 2 degrees Celsius, a threshold scientists say risks an unstable climate in which weather extremes become more common and food production more difficult.

Global carbon emissions rose by a record amount last year, rebounding on the heels of recession.

"It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of heavy rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe," especially in "high latitudes and tropical regions."

For the IPCC, "likely" means a two-thirds chance or more.

It said there was "medium confidence" that this would lead to "increases in local flooding in some regions", but that this could not be determined for river floods, whose causes are complicated.

The report said tropical cyclones were likely to become less frequent or stay the same, but the ones that do form are expected to be nastier.

"Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase with continued warming. Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely," the report said.

That, coupled with rising sea levels were a concern for small island states, the report said.

Droughts, perhaps the biggest worry for a world with a surging population to feed, were also expected to worsen.

The global population reached 7 billion last month and is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050, according to U.N. figures.

"There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century ... due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration," including in "southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil and southern Africa."

There is a high chance that landslides would be triggered by shrinking glaciers and permafrost linked to climate change, it said.

(Writing and additional reporting by Tim Cocks; Editing by Janet Lawrence)

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No link between tornadoes and climate change: US (AFP)

WASHINGTON (AFP) – The United States is experiencing the deadliest year for tornadoes in nearly six decades, but top US weather experts said Monday there is no link between the violent twisters and climate change.

Instead, the reasons for the spiking death tolls are more likely due to the rise in the population density, the number of mobile homes and the chance paths taken by a series of tornadoes that have happened to target populated areas.

"This year is an extraordinary outlier," said Harold Brooks, research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma.

"This is the deadliest year for tornadoes in the US since 1953," he said.

A massive tornado tore though the Missouri town of Joplin over the weekend, killing at least 116 people, less than a month a spate of the storms struck across seven states and killed 361 people in April.

According to Russell Schneider, director of NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, that puts 2012 on par with 1953, a "horrible tornado year," when 116 people were killed in a June 8 tornado in Flint, Michigan.

The same year, 114 people were killed in a Waco, Texas twister and 90 were killed by a tornado that tore through Worcester, Massachusetts. Modern tornado records began in 1950.

"I think we have to ask ourselves the tough questions now," said Schneider.

"Why is this happening? The complexity of our society, the density of our populations in traditional tornado-prone regions of the world, community and family preparedness? Our science and technology -- are we fully exploiting that to protect Americans?"

While plenty of questions are being posed, none seem to point at climate change as a driver, and the La Nina phenomenon's effect is minimal, said Brooks.

When scientists examine the most complete records available and adjust for changes in how tornadoes were reported over time, "we see no correlation between global or US national temperature and tornado occurrence," Brooks said.

Nor are the storms themselves getting larger than they used to be, even though it may seem so after learning of massive twisters like the one in Missouri that tore apart a four-mile (10 kilometer) long, three-quarter-mile deep stretch of land.

"Tornado deaths require two things. You have to have the tornado and you have to have people in the right or the wrong place," Brooks said.

"The biggest single demographic change that probably affects things is that the fraction of mobile homes in the United States has increased over the years," he said.

More than seven percent of all 311 million Americans (about 20 million) live in mobile homes, US Census data show. And more than half of all mobile homes are in the US South which is among the regions most prone to tornado strikes.

Anything that can be tossed into the air, like cars and mobile homes, can prove deadly in a tornado and people are urged to take shelter underground if possible. Many mobile home parks, however, have no such shelters.

Twisters are formed when atmospheric conditions come together in a certain way. At low levels, the atmosphere is warm and moist, coupled with cold dry air above.

Winds must be increasing in speed from the Earth's surface up to elevations of about 20,000 feet, with directional changes, known as wind shear, so that the southerly wind blows near the surface and gains speed at higher altitude.

"In April, essentially we were stuck in a pattern where that was the way things were for a couple of weeks, and that pattern didn't move so we had repeated episodes that were favorable for producing significant tornadoes," Brooks explained.

The weather phenomenon known as La Nina, which produces cooler than normal temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, may have had a "relatively small impact" on producing that pattern, but that is not the full picture, he said.

"It's an area of research to try to identify why the pattern was so favorable and why it was favorable for so long."

The overall tornado record does not show a steadily increasing trend toward bigger, deadlier storms, he said.

For instance, "2009 was a really low year for tornadoes. Some recent years have been big, some recent years have been small," he said.

Since modern records on tornadoes began in 1950, the deadliest outbreak was on April 3, 1974. The "Super Outbreak" claimed 310 lives when 148 tornadoes over a 24-hour period swept across 13 states.

Prior to that, the single deadliest tornado in US history was in 1925, described in early accounts as killing 695 people when it tore through Missouri, southern Illinois and southwestern Indiana.

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