Climatologists offer explanation for widening of Earth's tropical belt

A cool-water anomaly known as La Ni?a occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Ni?a was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -- a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase. This image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Pacific Ocean from April 14–21, 2008. Places where the Pacific was cooler than normal are blue, places where temperatures were average are white, and places where the ocean was warmer than normal are red. The broad area of cooler-than-average water off the coast of North America from Alaska (top center) to the equator is a classic feature of the cool phase of the PDO. The cool waters wrap in a horseshoe shape around a core of warmer-than-average water. (In the warm phase, the pattern is reversed). Unlike El Ni?o and La Ni?a, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate.Credit: NASA image by Jesse Allen, AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems Recent studies have shown that Earth's tropical belt -- demarcated, roughly, by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn -- has progressively expanded since at least the late 1970s. Several explanations for this widening have been proposed, such as radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.

Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Ni?o-like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean. It also includes, the researchers say, anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the PDO.

Study results appear March 16 in Nature Geoscience.

"Prior analyses have found that climate models underestimate the observed rate of tropical widening, leading to questions on possible model deficiencies, possible errors in the observations, and lack of confidence in future projections," said Robert J. Allen, an assistant professor of climatology in UC Riverside's Department of Earth Sciences, who led the study. "Furthermore, there has been no clear explanation for what is driving the widening."

Now Allen's team has found that the recent tropical widening is largely driven by the PDO.

"Although this widening is considered a 'natural' mode of climate variability, implying tropical widening is primarily driven by internal dynamics of the climate system, we also show that anthropogenic pollutants have driven trends in the PDO," Allen said. "Thus, tropical widening is related to both the PDO and anthropogenic pollutants."

Widening concerns

Tropical widening is associated with several significant changes in our climate, including shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation, like storm tracks, and major climate zones. For example, in Southern California, tropical widening may be associated with less precipitation.

Of particular concern are the semi-arid regions poleward of the subtropical dry belts, including the Mediterranean, the southwestern United States and northern Mexico, southern Australia, southern Africa, and parts of South America. A poleward expansion of the tropics is likely to bring even drier conditions to these heavily populated regions, but may bring increased moisture to other areas.

Widening of the tropics would also probably be associated with poleward movement of major extratropical climate zones due to changes in the position of jet streams, storm tracks, mean position of high and low pressure systems, and associated precipitation regimes. An increase in the width of the tropics could increase the area affected by tropical storms (hurricanes), or could change climatological tropical cyclone development regions and tracks.

Belt contraction

Allen's research team also showed that prior to the recent (since ~1980 onwards) tropical widening, the tropical belt actually contracted for several decades, consistent with the reversal of the PDO during this earlier time period.

"The reversal of the PDO, in turn, may be related to the global increase in anthropogenic pollutant emissions prior to the ~ early 1980s," Allen said.

Analysis

Allen's team analyzed IPCC AR5 (5th Assessment Report) climate models, several observational and reanalysis data sets, and conducted their own climate model experiments to quantify tropical widening, and to isolate the main cause.

"When we analyzed IPCC climate model experiments driven with the time-evolution of observed sea surface temperatures, we found much larger rates of tropical widening, in better agreement to the observed rate--particularly in the Northern Hemisphere," Allen said. "This immediately pointed to the importance of sea surface temperatures, and also suggested that models are capable of reproducing the observed rate of tropical widening, that is, they were not 'deficient' in some way."

Encouraged by their findings, the researchers then asked the question, "What aspect of the SSTs is driving the expansion?" They found the answer in the leading pattern of sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific: the PDO.

They supported their argument by re-analyzing the models with PDO-variability statistically removed.

"In this case, we found tropical widening -- particularly in the Northern Hemisphere -- is completely eliminated," Allen said. "This is true for both types of models--those driven with observed sea surface temperatures, and the coupled climate models that simulate evolution of both the atmosphere and ocean and are thus not expected to yield the real-world evolution of the PDO.

"If we stratify the rate of tropical widening in the coupled models by their respective PDO evolution," Allen added, "we find a statistically significant relationship: coupled models that simulate a larger PDO trend have larger tropical widening, and vice versa. Thus, even coupled models can simulate the observed rate of tropical widening, but only if they simulate the real-world evolution of the PDO."

Future work

Next, the researchers will be looking at how anthropogenic pollutants, by modifying the PDO and large scale weather systems, have affected precipitation in the Southwest United States, including Southern California.

"Future emissions pathways show decreased pollutant emissions through the 21st century, implying pollutants may continue to drive a positive PDO and tropical widening," Allen said.

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With few hard frosts, tropical mangroves push north

Cold-sensitive mangrove forests have expanded dramatically along Florida's Atlantic Coast as the frequency of killing frosts has declined, according to a new study based on 28 years of satellite data from the University of Maryland and the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center in Edgewater, Md.

Between 1984 and 2011, the Florida Atlantic coast from the Miami area northward gained more than 3,000 acres (1,240 hectares) of mangroves. All the increase occurred north of Palm Beach County. Between Cape Canaveral National Seashore and Saint Augustine, mangroves doubled in area. Meanwhile between the study's first five years and its last five years, nearby Daytona Beach recorded 1.4 fewer days per year when temperatures fell below 28.4 degrees Fahrenheit (-4 degrees Celsius). The number of killing frosts in southern Florida was unchanged.

The mangroves' march up the coast as far north as St. Augustine, Fla., is a striking example of one way climate change's impacts show up in nature. Rising temperatures lead to new patterns of extreme weather, which in turn cause major changes in plant communities, say the study's authors.

Unlike many studies which focus on changes in average temperatures, this study, published online Dec. 30 in the peer-reviewed journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, shows that changes in the frequency of rare, severe events can determine whether landscapes hold their ground or are transformed by climate change.

The mangrove forests are edging out salt marshes, said University of Maryland Entomology Professor Daniel S. Gruner, a study co-author. "This is what we would expect to see happening with climate change, one ecosystem replacing another," said Gruner, who co-leads an interdisciplinary research project on mangrove ecosystems, along with Ilka C. Feller of the Smithsonian. "But at this point we don't have enough information to predict what the long term consequences will be."

One valuable ecosystem replaces another -- at what cost?

"Some people may say this is a good thing, because of the tremendous threats that mangroves face," said the study's lead author, Kyle Cavanaugh, a Smithsonian postdoctoral research fellow. "But this is not taking place in a vacuum. The mangroves are replacing salt marshes, which have important ecosystem functions and food webs of their own."

Mangrove forests grow in calm, shallow coastal waters throughout the tropics. Salt marshes fill that niche in temperate zones. Both provide crucial habitat for wildlife, including endangered species and commercially valuable fish and shellfish. Some animals use both types of habitat. Others, like marsh-nesting seaside sparrows or the honey bees that produce mangrove honey, rely on one or the other.

Both provide valuable ecosystem services, buffering floods, storing atmospheric carbon and building soils. Both are in decline nationally and globally. Mangrove forests are cut down for charcoal production, aquaculture and urbanization or lose habitat to drainage projects. Salt marshes are threatened by drainage, polluted runoff and rising sea levels.

Florida naturalists noticed that mangroves now grow in places that once were too chilly for the tropical trees. "We knew this was happening, but no one knew if it was a local or a regional phenomenon," Cavanaugh said.

Study used satellite photos, the "gold standard" in climate change

Cavanaugh, an expert in remote sensing, turned to photographs of Florida's Atlantic coast taken by NASA's Landsat 5, which launched in 1984 and tracked changes in Earth's land cover until 2011. "It very quickly became a gold standard to examine the effects of climate change, because it lets you look back in time," Cavanaugh said.

The satellite images revealed the mangroves' expansion into terrain formerly inhabited by salt marsh plants. While the study only looked at the Atlantic Coast, the same trend is taking place on Florida's Gulf Coast, Cavanaugh and Gruner said.

Mean winter temperatures have risen at seven of eight coastal weather stations in the study area. But if overall warming benefited mangroves, the mangrove cover should have increased all over Florida, not only in the north. Average winter temperature, rainfall, and urban or agricultural land use did not explain the mangroves' expansion. Only fewer freezing days at the northern end of their range matched the trend.

The researchers are studying effects on coastal insects and birds; whether the change will affect coastal ecosystems' ability to store carbon; and whether juvenile fish and commercially valuable shellfish will remain abundant in the changing plant communities.

Cavanaugh is looking at Landsat 5 imagery for Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Australia and New Zealand to see if mangroves are expanding elsewhere as they are in Florida.

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Sandy retired from list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names

April 11, 2013

This NOAA GOES-13 satellite image taken on October 29, 2012 shows the storm as it is centered off of Maryland and Virginia. 

Download here. (Credit: NOAA.)

Sandy has been retired from the official list of Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone names by the World Meteorological Organization’s hurricane committee because of the extreme impacts it caused from Jamaica and Cuba to the Mid-Atlantic United States in October 2012.
Storm names are reused every six years for both the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. If a storm is so deadly or costly that the future use of the name would be insensitive or confusing, the WMO hurricane committee, which includes personnel from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, may retire the name. Sandy is the 77th name to be retired from the Atlantic list since 1954. The name will be replaced with “Sara” beginning in 2018.
Sandy was a classic late-season hurricane in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The cyclone made landfall as a category 1 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) in Jamaica, and as a 115 mph category 3 hurricane in eastern Cuba.  Hurricane Sandy merged with a frontal system hours before making landfall as a post-tropical cyclone near Brigantine, N.J., and its size and strength caused catastrophic damage all along the mid-Atlantic shoreline.

Because of its tremendous size, Sandy drove a catastrophic storm surge into the New Jersey and New York coastlines. Preliminary U.S. damage estimates are near $50 billion, making Sandy the second-costliest cyclone since Katrina to hit the United States. There were at least 147 direct deaths recorded across the Atlantic basin due to Sandy, with 72 of these fatalities occurring in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Sandy caused the greatest number of U.S. direct fatalities related to a tropical cyclone outside of the southern states since Hurricane Agnes in 1972.

NOAA's National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Working with partners, NOAA’s National Weather Service is building a Weather-Ready Nation to support community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.

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Did a tropical storm hit Florida Sunday night?

IMHO, yes!

This blog will provide an explanation of my reasoning. For additional perspective, TWC's Dr. Rick Knabb and Bryan Norcross discuss the event in an on-camera segment here.

There's an infinite variety of weather systems in the tropical-subtropical-extratropical continuum, the one which hit Florida over the weekend being another fascinating example.

A couple of particularly bizarre & wild ones have occurred in recent years: what I dubbed the "MCV-icane" in southern Illinois in May 2009, and the regeneration of what had been Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.

The system this weekend paradoxically had characteristics of both a large non-tropical nor'easter and, embedded within it, a small tropical cyclone. In that sense, although there were significant differences in strength, location, and origin, Sunday evening's odd bird was at least of a similar species to the small unnamed hurricane that developed within the larger Perfect Storm in 1991.

So in the big picture the current system has been a hybrid, but what about the potent component that hit Florida Sunday night, the feature that I'm suggesting was a tropical storm even though officially it wasn't? What's up with that?

It's perfectly okay for meteorologists to have honest, legitimate, amicable professional differences of opinion on the analysis of meteorological aspects of a weather system. The tricky part with tropical and subtropical cyclones in this part of the world is that only the National Hurricane Center can officially classify them as such and name them.

For example, I could identify a thunderstorm's radar signature and publicly say it's a supercell, and as long as it's based on a sound meteorological analysis, there's no issue. Not so simple, however, if I say something's a tropical storm when it officially wasn't. But that's what I'm going to do anyway. :)

To be clear, I'm not criticizing the National Hurricane Center for not calling it a tropical storm Sunday evening. In addition to the squirrelly, short-fused meteorological nature of that weather system, there are many operational considerations in terms of what's issued to the public, the coordination of that between the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices, etc. In this case, there were plenty of advisories, watches and warnings issued in the days leading up to the overall event, and then short-term ones issued specifically for what spun up offshore Sunday evening.

Rather, this is in the spirit of a post-storm analysis, learning about that infinite variety of curve balls that the atmosphere can throw. NHC does the same, sometimes classifying things differently in the postseason than in real-time, such as when they "posthumously" identified an unnamed subtropical storm in 2005.

I've blogged about official tropical-or-not classifications of cyclones in the U.S. in the past, when I wrote that the aforementioned Erin should have been classified as a tropical storm when it reorganized and reintensified over Oklahoma, and raising a similar issue about the remnant circulation of Olga when it reached Florida in December 2007.

This is an academic exercise of meteorological semantics, but it also has relevance for what it means for people affected, as winds were much stronger on a portion of the Florida coast Sunday evening than they otherwise would have been.

During the day Sunday, there was a feature just north of Grand Bahama Island and offshore of the east coast of Florida, which was trying to become a surface low pressure center -- a "closed" circulation -- within the larger overall system that had been pummeling the state with heavy rain, high surf, and gusty winds as a result of persistent, long, moist onshore fetch associated with the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure system to the north and relative low pressure to the south.

Early Sunday evening, I was about to relax, put on the headphones and go for a nice long walk in the neighborhood when I thought I ought to check on the latest radar imagery. I saw what's below! Whoa! That was one of those meteorological "Houston, do we have a problem?" moments.

[Click on image for larger version.]

Not only was there now a very well-defined, tight circulation (indicated by the red and green colors which show winds blowing in opposite directions in close juxtaposition) over the very warm Gulf Stream, but the velocities measured by radar were upwards of 80 mph, at a low altitude of approximately 2400'. Even though winds certainly weren't sustained that strong down at the Earth's surface, this suggested both that it wasn't just a circulation way up in the atmosphere, and that very strong winds could be transferred down to the surface in gusts.

A little while later, not only was the radar presentation (image below) of the "reflectivity" i.e. precipitation more circular, there was a signature of a partial eyewall. Velocity images at the time still showed a tight circulation with strongest winds right around the center. This is not only not typical of an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone, it doesn't fit with the latest official definition of a subtropical cyclone either. Furthermore, it was not collocated with the cold mid and upper level low.

But what about actual surface observations?

Welll ... I checked the surface pressure plot of the buoy which is just offshore of Cape Canaveral, and saw this!

That plummeting surface pressure provided sufficient evidence that there was a solid manifestation down to the surface of what radar was observing above.

Here, after the fact, are two graphs which further support that a cyclone characteristic of a tropical storm made landfall last night.

This is the pressure trace at Trident Pier near Cape Canaveral. The center of circulation came very close. Notice how sharply the pressure fell and then rose, typical of the center of a tropical cyclone passing overhead. Also, the pressure reached 999.5 millibars, typical of one of storm (rather than depression or hurricane) strength.

And here is a graph of the sustained wind speed. It's a little harder to decipher so I've added circles for assistance. The red one indicates a sustained wind speed of tropical storm force. Where the line is circled in light blue shows that just a very short time later the wind had gone to nearly calm, as the eye-like portion of the storm came overhead. Then the wind quickly increased again (orange). Also, the wind shifted to the opposite direction, indicative of a closed surface circulation, as were other surface observations.

Stephen Sponsler, a meteorologist who lives right where the circulation came onshore, has posted some interesting observations here and here on Facebook .

The one piece of information that is unavailable is the detail of the temperature structure in the heart of the circulation. By definition, tropical cyclones are "warm-core," which is as it sounds: the temperature in the vertical core of the cyclone extending up through the atmosphere is higher than in the air surrounding it. Absent aircraft recon, or a "radiosonde" balloon having been released right as the tiny center passed overhead, we can't be certain of this aspect.

But what's known as a "cyclone phase" analysis indicated the system was warm-core [see addendum below for more info], and the preponderance of other available evidence suggests that this cyclone at the time it approached the coast and made landfall was more of a tropical cyclone by nature than a subtropical or non-tropical one. It was very short-lived and small in size, but there have been other very small ones, such as Lorenzo in 2007, and a number of very short-lived tropical cyclones. Likewise, while this storm had a sheared and asymmetric appearance on satellite imagery, there have been many tropical cyclones with asymmetry and upper-level wind shear.

Whatever it's called, there's one thing we can all agree on! The result:

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[Monday evening addendum: Although that "cyclone phase" diagram to which I linked had the cyclone as being solidly warm-core, it also showed that warm core as being relatively shallow. Analyses from other models such as this one presented a warm core of moderate depth. A shallow to moderate, rather than deep, warm core can be an indication of a cyclone which is more subtropical than tropical. But it depends on the situation; in the past there have been plenty of shallow-to-moderate warm-core systems as analyzed by this method which were officially classified as tropical cyclones, even hurricanes, and the nature of the winds in this case were more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. In any event, while there is a subtropical-vs.-tropical aspect given the subjectivity and limitations and gray areas involved, this duck was not walking, swimming, or quacking like a non-tropical one!]

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Tropical Storm Leslie slowly moves past Bermuda

HAMILTON, Bermuda – Tropical Storm Leslie's outer bands buffeted Bermuda with gusty winds and rain Sunday as it slowly edged past the wary British enclave on a path that was expected to take it to Canada's Newfoundland later in the week.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

The government reopened the L.F. Wade International Airport in the early evening after keeping it closed for most of the day due to tropical storm winds. Major airlines already had canceled flights to the British Atlantic territory of about 65,000 inhabitants.

As Leslie gradually spun away from Bermuda into the northern Atlantic, the Bermuda Police Service said there were no reports of any major damage or injuries. Bus services resumed.

But scattered power outages affected hundreds of customers, and some roads were littered with tree branches and other debris. At least one street pole fell in central Hamilton.

Government officials were breathing a sigh of relief since Leslie had several days ago been forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane as it passed Bermuda, possibly as a direct strike.

"Despite a few power outages and cancelled flights it will be business as usual tomorrow. I would ask the public to remain cautious as there may be loose tree limbs and debris, and the ocean is still dangerous for swimming," said National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief.

Schools will not hold classes Monday, and sea ferry services were suspended while the fleet and docks are inspected.

Most residents of Bermuda, a financial haven and tourist destination about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast, were taking the effects of the storm in stride. The territory has tough building codes and its people are used to strong storms.

"It's an excuse for a lazy day at home," said Natasha Hector, a resident of Bermuda's Southampton parish who is originally from Oxfordshire, England.

Tia Smith hunkered down at home Sunday in Hamilton parish with her husband, Tim; 5-year-old daughter, Willow; and 1-year-old son, Rowan. She said they dutifully prepared for a hurricane in recent days.

"Just a quiet day of movies and board games for us," she said.

Philippa Raven, who is visiting from London, said she was enjoying watching the storm from her friends' hilltop home.

"It's a good view and it's quite nice just watching it outside when you are cozy inside," said Raven, who arrived in Bermuda on Thursday.

Bermuda was forecast to get from two to four inches of rain from Leslie.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had weakened slightly early Sunday, and it maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical storm winds extended up to 195 miles from its center. By late afternoon, it was about 175 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and moving north at 14 mph.

U.S. forecasters said Leslie could regain hurricane strength Tuesday over open ocean as it was expected to approach Newfoundland.

As Leslie moves northward, swells kicked up by the storm will affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, the Canadian Maritimes, the northern Leeward Islands and the U.S. Caribbean territories for the next couple of days.

Far out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph and was not considered any threat to land. For a few hours Thursday, it was the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving slowly toward the west at 5 mph. It was expected to take a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest Monday. It was forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto weakens over Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico – Ernesto weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland Friday, killing seven people and dumping rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

In Veracruz state, two people were killed early Friday, including a teenage girl who was inside a car dragged by a river current and a 62-year-old man who was struck by lightning, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

It said three members of a family died Thursday night when strong winds knocked down a tree that fell on their car, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

A 38-year-old man, his wife and their 8-year-old boy were killed, it added.

In neighboring Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore Thursday near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had decreased to 35 mph (55 kph) by early Friday. It said the storm would continue weakening and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Early Friday, the storm was centered about 100 miles (160 kilometers) northwest of Oaxaca, Mexico, and moving west near 13 mph (20 kph).

The U.S. hurricane center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Early Friday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 930 miles (1,495 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 665 miles (1,070 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto kills 2 in Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico (AP) —Tropical Storm Ernesto lost strength as it moved inland early Friday, though forecasters warned it could still dump dangerous rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

In Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

About 2,000 army and navy personnel were on standby to head to inland mountains to help in rescue work if needed, said Noemi Guzman, Veracruz state civil defense director. Guzman said no flooding had been reported at any of the state's many rivers.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had declined to 40 mph (65 kph) by late Thursday, just above the minimum 39 mph to be considered a tropical storm. It said the storm would continue weakening through the night and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Late Thursday, the storm was centered about 85 miles (135 kilometers) southwest of the port city of Veracruz, moving to the west at 14 mph (22 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Late Thursday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 1,045 miles (1,680 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 695 miles (1,115 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph (110 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Gulf on alert as Tropical Storm Debby's path 'uncertain'

A hard-to-predict tropical storm is threatening the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas. Even though the storm isn't far from shore, where it's going to land is more mysterious than usual.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center's two most accurate storm models are pointing in opposite directions about where Tropical Storm Debby is heading, center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen says.

"This is one of the most uncertain scenarios we've had in a long, long time," Feltgen says. "Our two most accurate models don't agree with each other."

The most accurate model predicts the storm will change its current northeastern course suddenly and head west. It would hit Louisiana on Thursday morning and cause heavy rains as far west as Houston.

The other model, only slightly less accurate in the past, predicts the tropical storm will stay on the same northerly path or slightly east. The storm would strike the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, and tropical storm conditions could occur almost as far away as Tampa.

As of 2 p.m. ET, the center of Debby was located about 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 105 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla., according to the hurricane center.

Its 60-mph winds were kicking up rough waves along Florida Panhandle beaches. If the first model is correct, the storm will take a sharp left turn Monday morning and head to Louisiana.

Feltgen says the models disagree about the effect of a high-altitude weather system on the tropical storm's path. The first model says this system will grab Tropical Storm Debby and drag it westward. The second model says it won't.

Both models agree the storm is unlikely to have hurricane-force winds when it hits land. But heavy rains and maximum winds above 50 mph are likely and flash flooding possible.

So far, the government reports that nine oil and gas production platforms and one drilling rig have been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico. That has suspended 8% of the region's oil and gas production, not enough to affect prices nationally.

With Debby's formation in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, this marks the first time in recorded weather history that four named tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic before the end of June, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Never before since record-keeping began in 1851 has the fourth tropical storm of any Atlantic hurricane season been detected before July, a feat Debby achieved this year with a week to spare, she adds.

Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Fla., reports meteorologist Jeff Masters of private weather forecasting company Weather Underground.

"Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue."

The Pensacola area is at most risk, Feltgen says, because heavy rains caused flooding two weeks ago. "The ground is still saturated and its capacity to take more heavy rains is limited," he says.

If the storm heads west, Pensacola would get one to three inches of rain. If it doesn't change course, Tropical Storm Debby would drop five to 10 inches of rain on the Panhandle and as much as 15 inches in patches.

In Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish declared a state of emergency and started to sandbag levees. The National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm was not likely to hit New Orleans directly.

"We're always concerned about systems that aren't fully developed and could land anywhere," says Rupert Lacy, county emergency management director in Gulfport, Miss., in the middle of the two predictions.

His area got seven inches of rain two weeks ago. "Right now, people are ready to go and on a short leash, until we can have great confidence about where it will land."

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Bud weakens to tropical storm off Mexico's coast

PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico (AP) – Bud weakened to a tropical storm Friday as heavy rain began to pelt a string of laid-back beach resorts and small mountain villages on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said that maximum sustained winds that were once blowing at 115 mph (185 kph) had slowed to 70 mph (113 kph) by Friday night. The government of Mexico changed the hurricane warning for the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a tropical storm warning. Hurricane watches were also discontinued.

Forecasters said the storm would continue to weaken and the center would move over land late Friday or Saturday.

Heavy rain started Friday night in Puerto Vallarta and rainfall was expected to accumulate from 6 to 10 inches in many spots. Mexican authorities canceled school in 11 communities expected to be hit by heavy rains in Jalisco state. Emergency workers prepared emergency shelters, many of them in empty school classrooms. Emergency officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were closely monitoring villages that had been hit by flooding and mudslides in previous hurricanes and tropical storms.

Rains and 6-foot (2-meter) high waves pelted Melaque, a beach town on the Bahia de Navidad, about 60 mph (100 kilometers) east of the sparsely populated stretch of coast where the storm's center was expected to come ashore during the night.

Rafael Galvez, manager of the Hotel Bahia in Melaque, said his staff would board up windows before Bud's arrival.

"I went through Wilma in Cancun," which hit as a Category 4, Galvez said. "This is a little less severe."

Category 2 Hurricane Jova hit the area in October, killing six people and flooding parts of Melaque and neighboring Barra de Navidad.

"There was a lot of flooding in the whole area, and we lost electricity," Galvez recalled. But this week, he said, only seven of his hotel's 26 rooms were occupied, and none of the hotel's guests were planning to leave.

The hurricane center said the storm would hit land, move a little inland and then make a U-turn and head back out into the Pacific. Rain, rather than wind, could be the big threat, with the center warning of the "potential for life-threatening mudslides" in steep terrain inland.

The government of Jalisco state prepared hundreds of cots and dozens of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers that could be needed to move debris.

Jalisco's civil defense office said two shelters had been opened in Cihuatlan, a town just inland from Melaque that was hard hit by flooding from Jova.

The region is experienced at handling hurricanes, Galvez noted. "The government planning has helped a lot," he noted.

Officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were in close contact with managers of the hundreds of hotels in the city in case tourists need to move to eight emergency shelters, but on Friday night they said that appeared unlikely. It said the sea along the city's famous beachfront was calm, but swimming had been temporarily banned as a precaution.

A separate storm was pounding much of Cuba and the Bahamas on Friday. Cuba's civil defense agency reported that a French citizen, Alain Manaud, and Silvestre Fortun Alvarez of Cuba were missing after trying to cross rain-swollen rivers, according to the government's Prensa Latina news agency. It said a search for them was continuing.

An official at the French Embassy in Havana said Manaud was 66 and had lived in Cuba for several years. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly.

The agency quoted government meteorologists as saying more than 20 inches (500 millimeters) of rain had fallen on parts of the central province of Sancti Spiritus.

The U.S. hurricane center reported that the system had about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

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Tropical Storm Beryl makes landfall in Florida

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Irene was tropical storm, not hurricane, over NJ (AP)

MIAMI – Irene was a tropical storm — not a hurricane — when it made landfall in New Jersey in August, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have determined after a review.

The deadly storm was a Category 1 hurricane when it made landfall Aug. 27 in North Carolina. The storm made landfall again Aug. 28 near Atlantic City, N.J., where forecasters had said it was a hurricane with 75 mph winds.

However, after reviewing their data, forecasters have determined that Irene had weakened to a tropical storm with winds around 69 mph when it crossed New Jersey's coast. Hurricanes have top winds of at least 74 mph.

"It's a very small change," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the hurricane center. "The difference residents would see is about the same. There's no perceivable difference."

Forecasters posted their report on Irene on Friday. The hurricane center occasionally upgrades or downgrades tropical storms as it reviews storm data at the end of the six-month hurricane season. In Irene's case, a review of the data supported downgrading the storm at the time it hit New Jersey, Blake said.

"Five-knot changes like that happen all the time. At this time, it just happened near land," Blake said.

Irene was one of the costliest storms in U.S. history. It caught much of the Eastern seaboard by surprise as it churned up the coast, prompting mass evacuations in New York City before it dumped torrential rains over parts of New England. Devastating flooding in Vermont damaged or destroyed hundreds of miles of roads, scores of bridges and hundreds of homes and left about a dozen communities cut off except for supply drops by National Guard helicopters.

The storm killed more than 50 people in the U.S., Caribbean and Canada.

The six-month Atlantic hurricane season that ended Nov. 30 produced 19 tropical storms, including seven hurricanes, making it one of the busiest seasons on record. It was the sixth straight year without a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.

Hurricanes are considered major when they reach Category 3, with top winds of at least 111 mph. Storms are named when their winds reach speeds of at least 39 mph.

The 2011 season's storm totals include an upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status and the addition of an unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September over the open Atlantic between Bermuda and Nova Scotia.

The next Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

___

Online:

National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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Kenneth weakens to tropical depression (AP)

MIAMI – Forecasters say Kenneth continues to weaken and has been downgraded to a tropical depression in the eastern Pacific.

There is no threat to land from what had been the strongest late-season hurricane in that area on record when it earlier reached Category 4 status.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Friday that Kenneth has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kph). The storm was centered about 1,155 miles (1,860 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.

It is moving west at 14 mph (22 kph)

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The eastern Pacific hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

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New tropical depression forms off Mexico's coast (AP)

MIAMI – A new tropical depression has formed in the Pacific off Mexico's coast as a Hurricane Jova begins moving inland farther north.

The new depression has maximum sustained winds near 35 mph (55 kph) early Wednesday and could strengthen to a tropical storm later in the day. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Barra de Tonala, Mexico, and extends southward to the Guatemalan border.

The depression is centered about 150 miles (240 kilometers) southeast of Salina Cruz and is moving north near 5 mph (7 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the depression's center will approach the coast Wednesday evening.

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Tropical Storm Ophelia gains some strength: NHC (Reuters)

(Reuters) – Tropical Storm Ophelia has gained a little strength it moves northwards to the open Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Located about 180 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, Ophelia was packing maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour (95 km per hour), the early Thursday report said.

Tropical cyclones become named tropical storms when their winds exceed 39 miles per hour and become hurricanes when their winds reach more than 74 mph.

(Reporting by Antonita Devotta; Editing by Sanjeev Miglani)

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Tropical Storm Philippe strengthens far from land (AP)

MIAMI – Forecasters say Tropical Storm Philippe is posing no threat to land, but has strengthened somewhat after forming over the far eastern Atlantic.

At 5 a.m. ET Sunday, the National Weather Service said Philippe was about 410 miles (660 kilometers) west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Its top sustained winds have risen some to 45 mph (75 kph) and Philippe is moving west-northwest at 13 mph (20 kph). A turn to the northwest was expected to start Monday.

There were no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Meanwhile, Ophelia was still barely a tropical storm as it struggled in the Atlantic, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph). It was 235 miles (380 kilometers) east of the Leeward Islands, and moving west at 12 mph (19 kph).

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Tropical Storm Ophelia Likely to Reform (ContributorNetwork)

The National Weather Service states Tropical Storm Ophelia's remnants are just over the Northern Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean as of today. There is a 90 percent chance this system will develop into a tropical storm again as it moves to the west-northwest. Thus far the system is not near any huge land masses, but it could eventually reach the eastern United States.

Trailing behind Ophelia is Tropical Storm Philippe, which is forecast to turn north into the Atlantic and go out of harm's way. Ever since Hurricane Irene slammed into the East Coast, the Atlantic basin has been active with tropical systems. Luckily strong storms have avoided the mainland of the United States.

Forecasters predicted a more active than normal hurricane season this year. The Climate Prediction Center proposed as many as 19 named storms this year. Philippe is No. 16 on the list with another two months to go in hurricane season.

The Houston Chronicle reports all of these tropical systems haven't done the exceptional drought in Texas any good whatsoever. After Sept. 24, the chances of hurricanes hitting the Texas coast are very low in terms of historical numbers. The last late-season hurricane to make landfall in the Lone Star State was Hurricane Jerry in 1989.

The entire state of Texas is covered in a severe drought or worse. If anyone needs a huge dowsing storm from the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico, Texas is a prime candidate. They weren't so fortunate this year as most tropical systems stayed away from the southern United States. Tropical Storm Lee made landfall over Louisiana and only brushed the eastern edges of Texas.

Places like Dallas, Austin and Del Rio have set records for the most 100-degree days in one year. Dallas has had 70 days at 100 degrees or greater, eclipsing the old record of 69 set in 1980. Austin's Camp Mabry set a mark of 86 days that obliterated the old record of 69 set in 1925. San Antonio needs three more days to break 2009's record of 59 100-degree days.

The wettest months in Texas have already passed for this year and fall may not bring much relief. The drought will need inundating rain for at least a week to dissipate. Crop losses are already in the billions of dollars with cattle farmers taking their herds to be sold.

As hurricane season draws to a close, the exception drought may continue until at least next year for weary residents of Texas.

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Tropical Storm Lee Stalls and Floods Athens, Pa. (ContributorNetwork)

FIRST PERSON | When Tropical Storm Lee decided to hang out over the southern tier of New York and Pennsylvania on Sept. 3, no one could have guessed what horrors lay ahead for Athens, Pa.

After a few days of steady rains, Wednesday became the catalyst for a tragedy. Athens received 3 inches of rainfall, which sent swollen creeks pouring into the rivers. The Susquehanna River began to rise half a foot an hour.

At 6:30 p.m., members of the Athens Borough firemen began to go door to door alerting residents to prepare to move fast. It was voluntary to leave at first. I grew up in this area and when Hurricane Agnes rolled through this area in June 1972. I saw the devastation with my own eyes. I was not sticking around.

I spent a few hours with my son Timmy, who is 19, and we put lots of things at least 3 feet off the floor. I prayed that 3 feet would be enough. When Jay, my boyfriend, came with the truck, we were ready to get out of town.

We left our home in Athens at 10:30 p.m. on Wednesday and prayed that we would have a home to return to. We went to the home of Thomas and Diana McBride (my sister) on Laurel Hill, far away from the rivers. I thought my daughter and her husband were following us out, but they did not.

By 3 a.m. Thursday, they were evacuating the entire town while sand-bagging efforts on the banks of the Susquehanna failed. At nearly 5 a.m., my son sent a text message that simply said "I have Amber." Those were the longest two hours of my life. With my two older children safe and sound, I fell back to sleep.

By 6 a.m., most of the downtown area was under water up to the first floor. The rain was still falling as it had for a few days and it continued to fall until early afternoon. We watched the television with my niece Karmie and her son. We saw the horror unfolding in our town and many towns south of us as the raging river rolled south. A home flowing down the river, a soaked woodchuck clinging to a fence and two doe in the middle of the river are images I will never forget.

The water in town never crossed the railroad tracks where I live, my home is safe with no damage. Three blocks down homes are in ruins.

I am very thankful my home was spared because like many people in my town, I do not have flood insurance. Once we learned the dam upriver had held up, I came back to my home. My daughter and my grandkids were here waiting for me, fresh from a shelter. Amber, her husband Tim and the three kids are with us until power is on in downtown Athens. Their townhouse had some water, but they cannot go back until the power is on. They may be here a few weeks.

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Tropical Storm Maria moving away from NE Caribbean (AP)

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Maria is moving slowly westward in the Atlantic and has lost a little strength.

Maria's maximum sustained winds Monday decreased to near 50 mph (85 kph).

The storm is centered about 175 miles (285 kilometers) north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and is moving west near 2 mph (4 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center says the storm's center is expected to pass east of the Bahamas. Maria's forecast track shows it eventually curving away from the U.S.

Meanwhile, rescuers have been searching for an oil rig worker who's been missing since he and nine others evacuated their disabled rig during Tropical Storm Nate in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Seven workers were found alive Sunday but one has since died. Two bodies have also been found.

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Tropical storm Katia slams into Ireland, Britain (AP)

DUBLIN – Tropical Storm Katia shut down roads and power and led to one death Monday in Ireland and Britain, where residents braced for the strongest wind gusts in 15 years.

Forecasters in both countries said Monday's gusts topped 80 mph (125 kph) as the storm — previously a hurricane as it roared across the Atlantic — made driving, shipfaring and even walking dangerous in broad swathes of Ireland, Scotland and northern England.

In northeast England's County Durham, a driver died after a tree fell on a car on the highway, Durham police said. Officers later warned all drivers to be careful driving through the high winds.

CE Electric UK, which provides power in the north east of England, said it was working to restore the power supply to about 10,000 properties.

Most ferry services between Ireland and Britain were canceled, and fishing boats along the Atlantic coasts of Ireland and Scotland were warned to head into port.

Britain's government forecasting service, the Met Office, told the public to be ready for the strongest winds since October 1996, when the tail end of Hurricane Lili killed five Britons and caused an estimated 150 million pounds ($250 million) of damage there.

The Met Office said winds were averaging 55 mph (88 kph) while the strongest reported gust so far was 82 mph (128 kph) at a mountain station in North Wales. Gusts in the Northern Ireland border town of Castlederg reached 74 mph (118 kph).

Heavy rainfall hit the north of Ireland and central Scotland, where Transport Minister Keith Brown reassured travelers that emergency crews were ready to handle accidents, road blockages and power outages.

"Robust contingency arrangements are in place so people should not panic," Brown said.

The Tour of Britain cycling race canceled Monday's planned second stage across northern England after deeming the course's most exposed and elevated points too dangerous.

Ireland, which is regularly buffeted by strong Atlantic winds, also warned of exceptionally dangerous driving conditions and the risk of widespread coastal flooding. Towns along Ireland's Atlantic coast last experienced heavy flooding in November 2010.

A bridge spanning a bay in County Donegal, northwest Ireland, was closed Monday as a precaution, while fallen trees obstructed roads in several other parts of the island, including Limerick in the southwest.

Ireland's Electricity Supply Board said its engineers were trying to restore power to about 11,000 homes along the Irish Republic's border with Northern Ireland. Another 2,000 homes in Dublin lost power because of toppled electricity lines.

Authorities in Norway, Sweden and Denmark said they expected gale-force winds to arrive there Tuesday.

Ireland and Britain periodically catch the tail-end of Atlantic hurricanes as they travel northeast with the Gulf Stream and weaken into tropical storms.

The Met Office said Britain and Ireland felt the winds of one former hurricane in 2009, three in 2006, two in 2000, one in 1998 and one in 1996, when Lili's winds topped 90 mph (145 kph) and brought widespread disruption to Britain and Ireland.

Katia is the second major hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, forming two weeks ago near the west African islands of Cape Verde. Katia traveled in a C-shape route toward the Caribbean and the eastern United States but didn't reach landfall there, then headed northeast to Europe.

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Maria prompts tropical storm watch in Bermuda (AP)

MIAMI – A tropical storm watch has been issued for Bermuda as Tropical Storm Maria crawls up the Atlantic.

Early Tuesday, Maria has maximum sustained winds near 50 mph (85 kph) with some strengthening forecast during the next two days.

Maria is centered about 340 miles (545 kilometers) east of the southeastern Bahamas and is moving north-northwest near 5 mph (7 kph). The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Maria is expected to pass west of Bermuda on Thursday.

Maria's forecast track shows it curving away from the U.S.

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