Fierce 2012 magnetic storm just missed us: Earth dodged huge magnetic bullet from the sun

Earth dodged a huge magnetic bullet from the sun on July 23, 2012.

According to University of California, Berkeley, and Chinese researchers, a rapid succession of coronal mass ejections -- the most intense eruptions on the sun -- sent a pulse of magnetized plasma barreling into space and through Earth's orbit. Had the eruption come nine days earlier, it would have hit Earth, potentially wreaking havoc with the electrical grid, disabling satellites and GPS, and disrupting our increasingly electronic lives.

The solar bursts would have enveloped Earth in magnetic fireworks matching the largest magnetic storm ever reported on Earth, the so-called Carrington event of 1859. The dominant mode of communication at that time, the telegraph system, was knocked out across the United States, literally shocking telegraph operators. Meanwhile, the Northern Lights lit up the night sky as far south as Hawaii.

In a paper appearing today (Tuesday, March 18) in the journal Nature Communications, former UC Berkeley postdoctoral fellow and research physicist Ying D. Liu, now a professor at China's State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, UC Berkeley research physicist Janet G. Luhmann and their colleagues report their analysis of the magnetic storm, which was detected by NASA's STEREO A spacecraft.

"Had it hit Earth, it probably would have been like the big one in 1859, but the effect today, with our modern technologies, would have been tremendous," said Luhmann, who is part of the STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Observatory) team and based at UC Berkeley's Space Sciences Laboratory.

A study last year estimated that the cost of a solar storm like the Carrington Event could reach $2.6 trillion worldwide. A considerably smaller event on March 13, 1989, led to the collapse of Canada's Hydro-Quebec power grid and a resulting loss of electricity to six million people for up to nine hours.

"An extreme space weather storm -- a solar superstorm -- is a low-probability, high-consequence event that poses severe threats to critical infrastructures of the modern society," warned Liu, who is with the National Space Science Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. "The cost of an extreme space weather event, if it hits Earth, could reach trillions of dollars with a potential recovery time of 4-10 years. Therefore, it is paramount to the security and economic interest of the modern society to understand solar superstorms."

Based on their analysis of the 2012 event, Liu, Luhmann and their STEREO colleagues concluded that a huge outburst on the sun on July 22 propelled a magnetic cloud through the solar wind at a peak speed of more than 2,000 kilometers per second -- four times the typical speed of a magnetic storm. It tore through Earth's orbit but, luckily, Earth and the other planets were on the other side of the sun at the time. Any planets in the line of sight would have suffered severe magnetic storms as the magnetic field of the outburst tangled with the planets' own magnetic fields.

The researchers determined that the huge outburst resulted from at least two nearly simultaneous coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which typically release energies equivalent to that of about a billion hydrogen bombs. The speed with which the magnetic cloud plowed through the solar wind was so high, they concluded, because another mass ejection four days earlier had cleared the path of material that would have slowed it down.

"The authors believe this extreme event was due to the interaction of two CMEs separated by only 10 to 15 minutes," said Joe Gurman, the project scientist for STEREO at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

One reason the event was potentially so dangerous, aside from its high speed, is that it produced a very long-duration, southward-oriented magnetic field, Luhmann said. This orientation drives the largest magnetic storms when they hit Earth because the southward field merges violently with Earth's northward field in a process called reconnection. Storms that normally might dump their energy only at the poles instead dump it into the radiation belts, ionosphere and upper atmosphere and create auroras down to the tropics.

"These gnarly, twisty ropes of magnetic field from coronal mass ejections come blasting from the sun through the ambient solar system, piling up material in front of them, and when this double whammy hits Earth, it skews the Earth's magnetic field to odd directions, dumping energy all around the planet," she said. "Some of us wish Earth had been in the way; what an experiment that would have been."

"People keep saying that these are rare natural hazards, but they are happening in the solar system even though we don't always see them," she added. "It's like with earthquakes -- it is hard to impress upon people the importance of preparing unless you suffer a magnitude 9 earthquake."

All this activity would have been missed if STEREO A -- the STEREO spacecraft ahead of us in Earth's orbit and the twin to STEREO B, which trails in our orbit -- had not been there to record the blast.

The goal of STEREO and other satellites probing the magnetic fields of the sun and Earth is to understand how and why the sun sends out these large solar storms and to be able to predict them during the sun's 11-year solar cycle. This event was particularly unusual because it happened during a very calm solar period.

"Observations of solar superstorms have been extremely lacking and limited, and our current understanding of solar superstorms is very poor," Liu said. "Questions fundamental to solar physics and space weather, such as how extreme events form and evolve and how severe it can be at the Earth, are not addressed because of the extreme lack of observations."

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Did a tropical storm hit Florida Sunday night?

IMHO, yes!

This blog will provide an explanation of my reasoning. For additional perspective, TWC's Dr. Rick Knabb and Bryan Norcross discuss the event in an on-camera segment here.

There's an infinite variety of weather systems in the tropical-subtropical-extratropical continuum, the one which hit Florida over the weekend being another fascinating example.

A couple of particularly bizarre & wild ones have occurred in recent years: what I dubbed the "MCV-icane" in southern Illinois in May 2009, and the regeneration of what had been Tropical Storm Erin in 2007.

The system this weekend paradoxically had characteristics of both a large non-tropical nor'easter and, embedded within it, a small tropical cyclone. In that sense, although there were significant differences in strength, location, and origin, Sunday evening's odd bird was at least of a similar species to the small unnamed hurricane that developed within the larger Perfect Storm in 1991.

So in the big picture the current system has been a hybrid, but what about the potent component that hit Florida Sunday night, the feature that I'm suggesting was a tropical storm even though officially it wasn't? What's up with that?

It's perfectly okay for meteorologists to have honest, legitimate, amicable professional differences of opinion on the analysis of meteorological aspects of a weather system. The tricky part with tropical and subtropical cyclones in this part of the world is that only the National Hurricane Center can officially classify them as such and name them.

For example, I could identify a thunderstorm's radar signature and publicly say it's a supercell, and as long as it's based on a sound meteorological analysis, there's no issue. Not so simple, however, if I say something's a tropical storm when it officially wasn't. But that's what I'm going to do anyway. :)

To be clear, I'm not criticizing the National Hurricane Center for not calling it a tropical storm Sunday evening. In addition to the squirrelly, short-fused meteorological nature of that weather system, there are many operational considerations in terms of what's issued to the public, the coordination of that between the National Hurricane Center and local National Weather Service offices, etc. In this case, there were plenty of advisories, watches and warnings issued in the days leading up to the overall event, and then short-term ones issued specifically for what spun up offshore Sunday evening.

Rather, this is in the spirit of a post-storm analysis, learning about that infinite variety of curve balls that the atmosphere can throw. NHC does the same, sometimes classifying things differently in the postseason than in real-time, such as when they "posthumously" identified an unnamed subtropical storm in 2005.

I've blogged about official tropical-or-not classifications of cyclones in the U.S. in the past, when I wrote that the aforementioned Erin should have been classified as a tropical storm when it reorganized and reintensified over Oklahoma, and raising a similar issue about the remnant circulation of Olga when it reached Florida in December 2007.

This is an academic exercise of meteorological semantics, but it also has relevance for what it means for people affected, as winds were much stronger on a portion of the Florida coast Sunday evening than they otherwise would have been.

During the day Sunday, there was a feature just north of Grand Bahama Island and offshore of the east coast of Florida, which was trying to become a surface low pressure center -- a "closed" circulation -- within the larger overall system that had been pummeling the state with heavy rain, high surf, and gusty winds as a result of persistent, long, moist onshore fetch associated with the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure system to the north and relative low pressure to the south.

Early Sunday evening, I was about to relax, put on the headphones and go for a nice long walk in the neighborhood when I thought I ought to check on the latest radar imagery. I saw what's below! Whoa! That was one of those meteorological "Houston, do we have a problem?" moments.

[Click on image for larger version.]

Not only was there now a very well-defined, tight circulation (indicated by the red and green colors which show winds blowing in opposite directions in close juxtaposition) over the very warm Gulf Stream, but the velocities measured by radar were upwards of 80 mph, at a low altitude of approximately 2400'. Even though winds certainly weren't sustained that strong down at the Earth's surface, this suggested both that it wasn't just a circulation way up in the atmosphere, and that very strong winds could be transferred down to the surface in gusts.

A little while later, not only was the radar presentation (image below) of the "reflectivity" i.e. precipitation more circular, there was a signature of a partial eyewall. Velocity images at the time still showed a tight circulation with strongest winds right around the center. This is not only not typical of an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone, it doesn't fit with the latest official definition of a subtropical cyclone either. Furthermore, it was not collocated with the cold mid and upper level low.

But what about actual surface observations?

Welll ... I checked the surface pressure plot of the buoy which is just offshore of Cape Canaveral, and saw this!

That plummeting surface pressure provided sufficient evidence that there was a solid manifestation down to the surface of what radar was observing above.

Here, after the fact, are two graphs which further support that a cyclone characteristic of a tropical storm made landfall last night.

This is the pressure trace at Trident Pier near Cape Canaveral. The center of circulation came very close. Notice how sharply the pressure fell and then rose, typical of the center of a tropical cyclone passing overhead. Also, the pressure reached 999.5 millibars, typical of one of storm (rather than depression or hurricane) strength.

And here is a graph of the sustained wind speed. It's a little harder to decipher so I've added circles for assistance. The red one indicates a sustained wind speed of tropical storm force. Where the line is circled in light blue shows that just a very short time later the wind had gone to nearly calm, as the eye-like portion of the storm came overhead. Then the wind quickly increased again (orange). Also, the wind shifted to the opposite direction, indicative of a closed surface circulation, as were other surface observations.

Stephen Sponsler, a meteorologist who lives right where the circulation came onshore, has posted some interesting observations here and here on Facebook .

The one piece of information that is unavailable is the detail of the temperature structure in the heart of the circulation. By definition, tropical cyclones are "warm-core," which is as it sounds: the temperature in the vertical core of the cyclone extending up through the atmosphere is higher than in the air surrounding it. Absent aircraft recon, or a "radiosonde" balloon having been released right as the tiny center passed overhead, we can't be certain of this aspect.

But what's known as a "cyclone phase" analysis indicated the system was warm-core [see addendum below for more info], and the preponderance of other available evidence suggests that this cyclone at the time it approached the coast and made landfall was more of a tropical cyclone by nature than a subtropical or non-tropical one. It was very short-lived and small in size, but there have been other very small ones, such as Lorenzo in 2007, and a number of very short-lived tropical cyclones. Likewise, while this storm had a sheared and asymmetric appearance on satellite imagery, there have been many tropical cyclones with asymmetry and upper-level wind shear.

Whatever it's called, there's one thing we can all agree on! The result:

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[Monday evening addendum: Although that "cyclone phase" diagram to which I linked had the cyclone as being solidly warm-core, it also showed that warm core as being relatively shallow. Analyses from other models such as this one presented a warm core of moderate depth. A shallow to moderate, rather than deep, warm core can be an indication of a cyclone which is more subtropical than tropical. But it depends on the situation; in the past there have been plenty of shallow-to-moderate warm-core systems as analyzed by this method which were officially classified as tropical cyclones, even hurricanes, and the nature of the winds in this case were more characteristic of a tropical cyclone. In any event, while there is a subtropical-vs.-tropical aspect given the subjectivity and limitations and gray areas involved, this duck was not walking, swimming, or quacking like a non-tropical one!]

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Tropical Storm Leslie slowly moves past Bermuda

HAMILTON, Bermuda – Tropical Storm Leslie's outer bands buffeted Bermuda with gusty winds and rain Sunday as it slowly edged past the wary British enclave on a path that was expected to take it to Canada's Newfoundland later in the week.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

The government reopened the L.F. Wade International Airport in the early evening after keeping it closed for most of the day due to tropical storm winds. Major airlines already had canceled flights to the British Atlantic territory of about 65,000 inhabitants.

As Leslie gradually spun away from Bermuda into the northern Atlantic, the Bermuda Police Service said there were no reports of any major damage or injuries. Bus services resumed.

But scattered power outages affected hundreds of customers, and some roads were littered with tree branches and other debris. At least one street pole fell in central Hamilton.

Government officials were breathing a sigh of relief since Leslie had several days ago been forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane as it passed Bermuda, possibly as a direct strike.

"Despite a few power outages and cancelled flights it will be business as usual tomorrow. I would ask the public to remain cautious as there may be loose tree limbs and debris, and the ocean is still dangerous for swimming," said National Security Minister Wayne Perinchief.

Schools will not hold classes Monday, and sea ferry services were suspended while the fleet and docks are inspected.

Most residents of Bermuda, a financial haven and tourist destination about 600 miles off the U.S. East Coast, were taking the effects of the storm in stride. The territory has tough building codes and its people are used to strong storms.

"It's an excuse for a lazy day at home," said Natasha Hector, a resident of Bermuda's Southampton parish who is originally from Oxfordshire, England.

Tia Smith hunkered down at home Sunday in Hamilton parish with her husband, Tim; 5-year-old daughter, Willow; and 1-year-old son, Rowan. She said they dutifully prepared for a hurricane in recent days.

"Just a quiet day of movies and board games for us," she said.

Philippa Raven, who is visiting from London, said she was enjoying watching the storm from her friends' hilltop home.

"It's a good view and it's quite nice just watching it outside when you are cozy inside," said Raven, who arrived in Bermuda on Thursday.

Bermuda was forecast to get from two to four inches of rain from Leslie.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said the storm had weakened slightly early Sunday, and it maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical storm winds extended up to 195 miles from its center. By late afternoon, it was about 175 miles east-northeast of Bermuda and moving north at 14 mph.

U.S. forecasters said Leslie could regain hurricane strength Tuesday over open ocean as it was expected to approach Newfoundland.

As Leslie moves northward, swells kicked up by the storm will affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, the Canadian Maritimes, the northern Leeward Islands and the U.S. Caribbean territories for the next couple of days.

Far out in the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a Category 1 storm, with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph and was not considered any threat to land. For a few hours Thursday, it was the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving slowly toward the west at 5 mph. It was expected to take a turn to the northwest and then north-northwest Monday. It was forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tornadoes hit NYC; violent storm tears through D.C.

NEW YORK – Damaging storms that spawned tornadoes in New York City, darkened tens of thousands of homes in the Washington, D.C., area and flooded New England streets turned a normal day of rest into a day of cleaning up for many East Coast residents on Sunday.

By Joey Mure, AP

This photo provided by Joey Mure shows a storm cloud over the Breezy Point area of Queens section of New York on Saturday.

By Joey Mure, AP

This photo provided by Joey Mure shows a storm cloud over the Breezy Point area of Queens section of New York on Saturday.

No serious injuries were reported when a twister hit a beachfront neighborhood Saturday on the edge of New York City and a second, stronger tornado followed moments later about 10 miles away. Residents got advance notice but still the storm took people by surprise.

"I was showing videos of tornadoes to my 4-year-old on my phone, and two minutes later, it hit," said Breezy Point neighborhood resident Peter Maloney. "Just like they always say, it sounded like a train."

The unsettled weather, part of a cold front that crossed over the Eastern Seaboard, toppled trees and power lines and damaged buildings as it passed through. Wind gusts reached 70 mph in some places.

Tornado-like funnel clouds were reported in Fairfax County, Va., and in Prince George's County, Md., but had not been confirmed by Saturday evening, meteorologist Andy Woodcock of the National Weather Service said.

One person suffered minor injuries during a partial stage collapse at the Rosslyn Jazz Festival in Arlington County, Va., and six people were evacuated from a Washington apartment building when a tree fell on it. Fairfax County officials reported three home cave-ins because of downed trees, a water rescue in the Potomac River and dozens of electrical wires down.

By Sunday morning, about 15,000 customers were without electricity in northern Virginia, according to Dominion Virginia Power. Pepco reported outages to more than 5,000 customers in the District of Columbia and Maryland's Prince George's and Montgomery counties. BGE reported about 1,500 outages, most in Prince George's and Anne Arundel counties.

In New York City, videos taken by bystanders showed a funnel sucking up water, then sand, and then small pieces of buildings as the first tornado moved through the Breezy Point section of the Rockaway peninsula in Queens.

At the Breezy Point Surf Club, it ripped the roofs off rows of cabanas, scattered deck chairs and left a heavy metal barbecue and propane tank sitting in the middle of a softball field, at least 100 yards from any home.

"It picked up picnic benches. It picked up Dumpsters," said the club's general manager, Thomas Sullivan.

In the storm's wake, broken flower pots, knocked-down fences and smashed windows littered the community of seaside bungalows. Half an hour later, the weather was beautiful, but Sullivan had to close the club to clean up the damage.

The roof of Bob O'Hara's cabana was torn off, leaving tubes of sunscreen, broken beer bottles and an old TV set exposed to the elements.

"We got a new sunroof," said O'Hara, who has spent summer weekends at the Breezy Point club for his entire 52 years. "The TV was getting thrown out anyway," he added.

The second twister hit to the northwest, in the Canarsie section of Brooklyn but also near the water, about seven minutes later. The National Weather Service said winds were up to 110 miles per hour, and several homes and trees were damaged.

Tornadoes are traditionally rare in the New York City area, but they have occurred with regularity in recent years. A small tornado uprooted trees on Long Island last month.

In 2010, a September storm spawned two tornadoes that knocked down thousands of trees and blew off a few rooftops in Brooklyn and Queens. A small tornado struck the same year in the Bronx. In 2007, a more powerful tornado damaged homes in Brooklyn and Staten Island.

More than 1,100 customers lost power Saturday in New York City.

Across New York state, in Buffalo, strong winds blew roofing off some buildings and sent bricks falling into the street. The city of Albany canceled the evening portion of an outdoor jazz festival because of the threat of storms.

With wind gusts reaching up to 60 mph, the storms moved into New England, flooding roads, toppling trees and snapping power lines.

For about three hours, the storm barraged western Massachusetts, western Connecticut and part of New Hampshire before tapering off near Rhode Island, but not before flooding roads in East Providence, the National Weather Service said.

In Fall River, Mass., floodwaters reached up to car windshields and stalled out dozens of vehicles. A day care center was evacuated and St. Anne's Hospital's emergency room flooded.

In New Hampshire, television station WMUR reported 4,000 power outages. The storm reached every county in Vermont, all within a two-hour window, but mercifully left the state without any extraordinary damage, according to early reports.

Weather Service meteorologist John Cannon said the storms by late Saturday had come and gone in Maine, where the concern then became high swells of 4 to 8 feet on the beaches and rip currents that would make it dangerous to be out on the water Sunday.

———

Contributing to this report were Associated Press writers David B. Caruso and Colleen Long in New York and Ed Donahue in Washington.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Bermuda on alert as storm likely to skirt island

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) – People in Bermuda braced Friday for a weekend of rough weather from Tropical Storm Leslie as forecasters said the system would likely regain strength and become a hurricane again while passing to the east of this Atlantic Ocean island.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass over or near Bermuda on Sunday.

The Bermuda Weather Service said the storm was on track to pass about 200 miles (321 kilometers) east-southeast of the island late Sunday afternoon as a Category 1 hurricane.

"It appears that Bermuda will be spared a direct impact," said Wayne Perinchief, the national security minister for the British territory. "However, I urge the public to remain cautious as there is the potential for the storm to re-intensify and change track, and we could experience heavy rain and winds in shower bands."

Some businesses were closing early and people crowded into shops to stock up on emergency supplies. At least one cruise ship canceled a stop in Bermuda and the airport was expected to close.

There was no widespread panic because the island, a wealthy offshore financial haven and tourist destination, has strong building codes and is accustomed to storms.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said Leslie resumed forward movement Friday after staying stationary overnight. Late Friday, the storm had top sustained winds of 65 mph (100 kph), below the hurricane threshold of 74 mph (120 kph).

The storm was about 360 miles (575 kilometers) south-southeast of Bermuda and was moving north at 3 mph (6 kph). The U.S. center said it would likely strengthen Saturday and Sunday, adding that Leslie also was expected to begin gradually increasing its forward speed.

Out in the middle of the Atlantic, Hurricane Michael was a category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (160 kph). On Thursday, it was briefly the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving northwest at 6 mph (9 kph) over the open ocean and was not a threat to land. It was about 940 miles (1,515 kilometers) west-southwest of the Azores.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Bermuda wary, but calm as storm likely to pass by

HAMILTON, Bermuda (AP) – Tropical Storm Leslie swirled northward in the Atlantic late Saturday toward Bermuda, and forecasters said it might strengthen into a hurricane again while passing to the east of this wealthy British territory.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

AFP/Getty Images

A satellite image shows Hurricane Leslie churning in the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda on Wednesday. Leslie is projected to pass east of Bermuda on Sunday afternoon or evening.

Forecasts pointed to the storm following a track about 200 miles east-southeast of the British territory Sunday afternoon or evening, the Bermuda Weather Service said.

"Bermuda seems to have escaped the worst of Tropical Storm Leslie," said Wayne Perinchief, the national security minister. "However, we should by no means let our guard down as we are still expecting strong winds and rain as well as dangerous ocean conditions overnight and well into Sunday. "

The government said that unless the storm's course changed, the airport would remain open, although major airlines already canceled flights. Officials also called off plans to open an emergency shelter but said the facility would remain in a state of readiness in case it was needed.

Bermuda, a financial haven and tourist destination, has strong building codes and is accustomed to storms, and many people on the island were not worried by Leslie.

"I have taken precautions," said Gareth Kerr, 29. "The windows have the shutters across and I got supplies such as water and tinned food. If the weather is bad tomorrow I'll just sit indoors."

Still, there was the chance of some flooding, said James Dodgson, a forecaster for the Bermuda Weather Service. Dodgson said the storm surge was likely to be relatively small at one or two feet but the surge coupled with high tide Sunday could cause some minor flooding in low-lying areas.

"I urge the public to remain cautious," Perinchief said.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said that by late Saturday, the storm was maintaining top sustained winds of 65 mph, below the hurricane threshold of 74 mph.

Leslie was about 200 miles southeast of Bermuda and was moving north at 8 mph. The U.S. center said some strengthening was expected and Leslie could regain hurricane strength Sunday or Sunday night.

"We expect the weather to go downhill later today with strong gusty winds," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the U.S. center.

The total amount of rainfall could reach two inches or more, he said.

Out in the middle of the Atlantic and considered no threat to land, Hurricane Michael remained a category 2 storm but slowed a bit to maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. On Thursday, it was briefly the first Category 3 of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Michael was moving north-northwest at 6 mph. It was about 920 miles west-southwest of the Azores.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto weakens over Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico – Ernesto weakened to a tropical depression as it moved inland Friday, killing seven people and dumping rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

By Felix Marquez, AP

Vendors that were caught unprepared try to recover their belongings after high waves dragged their beach stalls into the sea in Veracruz, Mexico.

In Veracruz state, two people were killed early Friday, including a teenage girl who was inside a car dragged by a river current and a 62-year-old man who was struck by lightning, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

It said three members of a family died Thursday night when strong winds knocked down a tree that fell on their car, the state's civil protection department said in a statement.

A 38-year-old man, his wife and their 8-year-old boy were killed, it added.

In neighboring Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore Thursday near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had decreased to 35 mph (55 kph) by early Friday. It said the storm would continue weakening and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Early Friday, the storm was centered about 100 miles (160 kilometers) northwest of Oaxaca, Mexico, and moving west near 13 mph (20 kph).

The U.S. hurricane center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Early Friday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 930 miles (1,495 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 665 miles (1,070 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph (100 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Ernesto kills 2 in Mexico

VERACRUZ, Mexico (AP) —Tropical Storm Ernesto lost strength as it moved inland early Friday, though forecasters warned it could still dump dangerous rains in the mountains of Mexico's flood-prone southern Gulf region.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

By Jose Dominguez, AFP/Getty Images

A man stands on a damaged pier in Mahahual, Mexico, after the passage of Ernesto on Wednesday.

In Tabasco state, two fishermen drowned when the stormed passed through the area Thursday, Gov. Andres Granier told reporters.

Granier said the storm's strong winds ripped rooftops from several homes but residents refused to evacuate, fearing their possessions might be stolen. "People have chosen to stay in their homes and we are helping them," he said.

Ernesto came ashore near the waters dotted with oil rigs operated by the state oil company in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. The government closed its largest Gulf coast port, Veracruz, and the smaller ports of Alvarado and Coatzacoalcos.

Coatzacoalcos, a major oil port, got seven inches (177 millimeters) of rain in the 24 hours before Ernesto's center passed just a few miles (kilometers) away, according to Mexico's weather service. San Pedro in the neighboring state of Tabasco had seen more than 10 inches (273 millimeters).

About 2,000 army and navy personnel were on standby to head to inland mountains to help in rescue work if needed, said Noemi Guzman, Veracruz state civil defense director. Guzman said no flooding had been reported at any of the state's many rivers.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's sustained winds had declined to 40 mph (65 kph) by late Thursday, just above the minimum 39 mph to be considered a tropical storm. It said the storm would continue weakening through the night and should dissipate by midday Friday, although it warned that heavy rains could continue into Friday night.

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan, but it weakened as it crossed the peninsula and then spun into the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.

Late Thursday, the storm was centered about 85 miles (135 kilometers) southwest of the port city of Veracruz, moving to the west at 14 mph (22 kph).

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto still had the potential to cause flooding and could produce rainfalls of up to 15 inches in some parts of the mountainous areas of Veracruz, Tabasco, Puebla and Oaxaca states before dissipating.

There were no reports of major flooding in Veracruz state and there have been only minor landslides on some roads, said Raul Zarrabal, the state's communications secretary.

A new tropical depression formed in the Atlantic on Thursday far from land. It was the seventh tropical depression to form in the Atlantic and forecasters said it could strengthen into a tropical storm Friday as it took a path toward the Caribbean. Late Thursday, it had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and was 1,045 miles (1,680 kilometers) east of the Windward Islands.

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to an early start and will likely stay busy, producing a few more storms than originally predicted, U.S. forecasters said Thursday.

Forecasters said warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that favor storm formation mean chances are higher for an above-normal season. However, that is tempered with the expected development of an El Nino weather pattern over the Pacific that may suppress storms later in the season.

In the Pacific, Gilma weakened from a hurricane to a tropical storm and was not seen as a threat to land. It was about 695 miles (1,115 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja California Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph (110 kph).

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Florida: 7 state deaths related to storm Debby

LIVE OAK, Fla. (AP) – Florida officials said Thursday that Tropical Storm Debby was responsible for seven deaths in the state.

By Dave Martin, AP

Tommy and Dorothy McIntosh walk away from their daughter's flooded home in Live Oak, Fla., Wednesday.

By Dave Martin, AP

Tommy and Dorothy McIntosh walk away from their daughter's flooded home in Live Oak, Fla., Wednesday.

State emergency operations spokeswoman Jessica Sims said that two people died in Pinellas County, including a 41-year-old woman caught in a riptide Wednesday at St. Pete Beach.

She was among eight people pulled from rip currents on St. Pete Beach on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, lifeguards on Clearwater Beach helped three people from the water who got caught in a rip current.

Storm-related deaths were also reported in Highlands, Pasco, Polk, Lake and Madison counties. They include a Highlands County woman who died in a tornado spawned by the storm on Sunday, as well as a 71-year-old man who suffered a heart attack and was found dead in flood waters outside his Indian Rocks Beach home in Pinellas County.

In addition, a South Carolina man disappeared Sunday off Alabama's Orange Beach in rough waters churned up by the storm.

Authorities said Wednesday they had suspended a five-day-old search for a 32-year-old Eric Pye of Summerville, S.C., after dozens of searchers using boats and sonar had failed to locate him.

The Orange Beach safety director, Melvin Shephard, told The Associated Press that accounts indicate Pye was wading near the beach's edge Sunday when the backwash of a large wave dragged him into the Gulf of Mexico. Debby was churning up 8- to 10-foot waves there at the time, he added.

Debby hovered in the Gulf of Mexico for days before slowly blowing across northern Florida this week; the storm dumped more than two feet of water in some parts.

On Thursday, Gov. Rick Scott traveled to some of the hardest-hit areas in Florida to survey flood damages. He told officials and some victims that he empathized with them.

"I grew up in the Midwest and the Missouri River used to flood," said Scott, who was raised in Kansas City. "You think about it as you go down and see the families who are devastated when their houses are under water."

Scott noted that the Suwannee River has yet to crest.

"There's more to come," he said.

Suwannee County Sheriff Tony Cameron said he hadn't seen so much flooding in Live Oak and surrounding areas since 1964, when he was 11 and Hurricane Dora flooded the small, north-central Florida community. Then, he helped his grandfather pump water out of the city.

"The problem we have right now is sink holes, that's our number one problem at this time," Cameron said Thursday afternoon. "We've got a lot of roads that are still under water. There are probably 300 cars scattered around the county sitting under water."

More than 150 people remained in shelters in Suwannee and Pasco counties on Thursday.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Gulf on alert as Tropical Storm Debby's path 'uncertain'

A hard-to-predict tropical storm is threatening the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas. Even though the storm isn't far from shore, where it's going to land is more mysterious than usual.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

NASA via AFP/Getty Images

Tropical Storm Debby nears the northern rim of the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.

The National Hurricane Center's two most accurate storm models are pointing in opposite directions about where Tropical Storm Debby is heading, center meteorologist Dennis Feltgen says.

"This is one of the most uncertain scenarios we've had in a long, long time," Feltgen says. "Our two most accurate models don't agree with each other."

The most accurate model predicts the storm will change its current northeastern course suddenly and head west. It would hit Louisiana on Thursday morning and cause heavy rains as far west as Houston.

The other model, only slightly less accurate in the past, predicts the tropical storm will stay on the same northerly path or slightly east. The storm would strike the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning, and tropical storm conditions could occur almost as far away as Tampa.

As of 2 p.m. ET, the center of Debby was located about 200 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 105 miles southwest of Apalachicola, Fla., according to the hurricane center.

Its 60-mph winds were kicking up rough waves along Florida Panhandle beaches. If the first model is correct, the storm will take a sharp left turn Monday morning and head to Louisiana.

Feltgen says the models disagree about the effect of a high-altitude weather system on the tropical storm's path. The first model says this system will grab Tropical Storm Debby and drag it westward. The second model says it won't.

Both models agree the storm is unlikely to have hurricane-force winds when it hits land. But heavy rains and maximum winds above 50 mph are likely and flash flooding possible.

So far, the government reports that nine oil and gas production platforms and one drilling rig have been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico. That has suspended 8% of the region's oil and gas production, not enough to affect prices nationally.

With Debby's formation in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, this marks the first time in recorded weather history that four named tropical storms have formed in the Atlantic before the end of June, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Never before since record-keeping began in 1851 has the fourth tropical storm of any Atlantic hurricane season been detected before July, a feat Debby achieved this year with a week to spare, she adds.

Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Fla., reports meteorologist Jeff Masters of private weather forecasting company Weather Underground.

"Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue."

The Pensacola area is at most risk, Feltgen says, because heavy rains caused flooding two weeks ago. "The ground is still saturated and its capacity to take more heavy rains is limited," he says.

If the storm heads west, Pensacola would get one to three inches of rain. If it doesn't change course, Tropical Storm Debby would drop five to 10 inches of rain on the Panhandle and as much as 15 inches in patches.

In Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish declared a state of emergency and started to sandbag levees. The National Hurricane Center said the tropical storm was not likely to hit New Orleans directly.

"We're always concerned about systems that aren't fully developed and could land anywhere," says Rupert Lacy, county emergency management director in Gulfport, Miss., in the middle of the two predictions.

His area got seven inches of rain two weeks ago. "Right now, people are ready to go and on a short leash, until we can have great confidence about where it will land."

.

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Hurricane storm surge imperils 4 million homes

A survey of the USA's vulnerability to hurricane-driven storm-surge damage found that more than four million homes worth over $700 billion are at risk along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

Storm surge — the massive mound of water that builds up and comes ashore as a hurricane moves over the ocean or Gulf of Mexico— is typically the most dangerous aspect of hurricanes.

The report, released this morning by research and consulting firm CoreLogic of Santa Ana, Calif., found that Florida is the state most prone to storm-surge damage, with about 1.4 million homes at risk, worth a total value of $188 billion.

Louisiana ranks second in total number properties at risk with nearly 500,000, while New York is second in total value of coastal properties possibly exposed at $111 billion.

At the city level, the New York City metro area contains both the highest number of vulnerable properties and the highest exposure in total property value at risk .

"The summer of 2011 gave us some startling insight into the damage that even a weak storm can cause in the New York City metro area," said Howard Botts of CoreLogic. "Hurricane Irene was downgraded to a tropical storm as it passed through New Jersey and New York City, but the impact of the storm was still estimated at as much as $6 billion."

The Atlantic hurricane season began last week and lasts until Nov. 30.

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Bud weakens to tropical storm off Mexico's coast

PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico (AP) – Bud weakened to a tropical storm Friday as heavy rain began to pelt a string of laid-back beach resorts and small mountain villages on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

By Bruno Gonzalez, AP

A navy vehicle drives along a street in the coastal town of Barra de Navidad as the community prepares for the storm's arrival along the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said that maximum sustained winds that were once blowing at 115 mph (185 kph) had slowed to 70 mph (113 kph) by Friday night. The government of Mexico changed the hurricane warning for the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes to a tropical storm warning. Hurricane watches were also discontinued.

Forecasters said the storm would continue to weaken and the center would move over land late Friday or Saturday.

Heavy rain started Friday night in Puerto Vallarta and rainfall was expected to accumulate from 6 to 10 inches in many spots. Mexican authorities canceled school in 11 communities expected to be hit by heavy rains in Jalisco state. Emergency workers prepared emergency shelters, many of them in empty school classrooms. Emergency officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were closely monitoring villages that had been hit by flooding and mudslides in previous hurricanes and tropical storms.

Rains and 6-foot (2-meter) high waves pelted Melaque, a beach town on the Bahia de Navidad, about 60 mph (100 kilometers) east of the sparsely populated stretch of coast where the storm's center was expected to come ashore during the night.

Rafael Galvez, manager of the Hotel Bahia in Melaque, said his staff would board up windows before Bud's arrival.

"I went through Wilma in Cancun," which hit as a Category 4, Galvez said. "This is a little less severe."

Category 2 Hurricane Jova hit the area in October, killing six people and flooding parts of Melaque and neighboring Barra de Navidad.

"There was a lot of flooding in the whole area, and we lost electricity," Galvez recalled. But this week, he said, only seven of his hotel's 26 rooms were occupied, and none of the hotel's guests were planning to leave.

The hurricane center said the storm would hit land, move a little inland and then make a U-turn and head back out into the Pacific. Rain, rather than wind, could be the big threat, with the center warning of the "potential for life-threatening mudslides" in steep terrain inland.

The government of Jalisco state prepared hundreds of cots and dozens of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers that could be needed to move debris.

Jalisco's civil defense office said two shelters had been opened in Cihuatlan, a town just inland from Melaque that was hard hit by flooding from Jova.

The region is experienced at handling hurricanes, Galvez noted. "The government planning has helped a lot," he noted.

Officials in Puerto Vallarta said they were in close contact with managers of the hundreds of hotels in the city in case tourists need to move to eight emergency shelters, but on Friday night they said that appeared unlikely. It said the sea along the city's famous beachfront was calm, but swimming had been temporarily banned as a precaution.

A separate storm was pounding much of Cuba and the Bahamas on Friday. Cuba's civil defense agency reported that a French citizen, Alain Manaud, and Silvestre Fortun Alvarez of Cuba were missing after trying to cross rain-swollen rivers, according to the government's Prensa Latina news agency. It said a search for them was continuing.

An official at the French Embassy in Havana said Manaud was 66 and had lived in Cuba for several years. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment publicly.

The agency quoted government meteorologists as saying more than 20 inches (500 millimeters) of rain had fallen on parts of the central province of Sancti Spiritus.

The U.S. hurricane center reported that the system had about a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone.

Copyright 2012 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.For more information about reprints & permissions, visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com. Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com.

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Tropical Storm Beryl makes landfall in Florida

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65 killed in Madagascar storm: weather agency

Tropical Storm Irina has killed at least 65 people in Madagascar, most of them residents of the Ifanadiana district in the southeast of the island, weather authorities said on Monday.

Three people were also reported missing, according to the national bureau of natural catastrophes (BNGRC), which did not provide any other details.

Earlier it was reported that only one person had been killed when the storm passed over Madagascar last week before lashing the coasts of SOuth Africa and Mozambique, where at least one person was killed.

"A tree fell on a house and the roof collapsed," killing an elderly man in Mozambique's southern Gaza province, said Rita Almeida, spokeswoman for the national disaster agency.

In the South African city of Durban, beaches were closed as waves reached three-metre (16-foot), municipal spokesman Thabo Mofokeng said. Ships were ordered to remain in port.

Irina was the second killer storm of the season. Tropical cyclone Giovanna left 35 people dead and many more injured.

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Strong space weather storm hits Earth

The strongest space weather storm in five years struck Earth on Thursday, causing some airlines to reroute their flights, threatening power disruptions and sparking a show of the northern lights.

NASA and other agencies warned that the storm had the potential to disrupt global positioning systems, satellites and power grids, and had already caused some air carriers to change their planes' polar flight paths.

However, the Earth's magnetic field appeared to be absorbing the brunt of the shock and it was unlikely to reach the most severe levels, US experts said.

The leading edge of the coronal mass ejection -- a burst of hot plasma and charged particles -- that erupted from the Sun early Wednesday reached Earth on Thursday at 1045 GMT (5:45 am Eastern time in the United States), said an update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Predictions that the storm would reach a level three on a scale of five, or a "strong" level of solar radiation and geomagnetic storming, continue to "look justified," NOAA said.

"So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming. As the event progresses, that field will continue to change."

NASA had forecast late Wednesday that the storm could reach "severe" levels, and its effects were expected to last through Friday.

The storm is likely "the strongest one since December 2006," NOAA scientist Joseph Kunches said on Wednesday.

Astronauts aboard the International Space Station were not expected to be affected by the radiation storm, NASA said.

A vivid display of the northern lights -- aurora borealis -- created when highly charged particles interact with the Earth's magnetic field, causing a colorful glow, was expected to be visible over central Asia at nightfall Thursday.

Geomagnetic and radiation storms are growing more frequent as the Sun leaves its solar minimum period and moves into a solar maximum over the coming years, but people are generally protected by Earth's magnetic field.

However, some experts are concerned that because the world is more reliant on GPS and satellite technology now than it was during the last solar maximum, more disruptions to modern life are likely.

The fuss began late Sunday at an active region on the Sun known as 1429, with a big solar flare that was associated with a coronal mass ejection that thrust toward the Earth at some four million miles per hour (6.4 million kilometers per hour).

A pair of solar flares and a CME followed overnight Tuesday-Wednesday, setting off a strong geomagnetic and solar radiation storm registering at level three on a five-step scale.

NASA said the first of the two flares on March 6-7 -- classified in the potent X class and facing directly at the Earth -- was the biggest this year and one of the largest of this cycle known as the solar minimum, which began in early 2007.

In fact, it was second only to a stronger one that erupted in August.

The solar flares alone caused brief high frequency radio blackouts that have already passed, according to NOAA.

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Storm to drench the South, may bring snow to Mid-Atlantic

While the Southeast gets a much-needed soaking from a rainstorm Saturday, that same storm could potentially move up the East Coast and bring some wet snow to portions of the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday.

By Clyde Mueller, AP

A bike rider makes his way along a snow-covered road on Wednesday in Santa Fe, New Mexico. While snow is forecast in parts of the Northwest and mid-Atlantic this weekend, the Southwest should stay dry.

By Clyde Mueller, AP

A bike rider makes his way along a snow-covered road on Wednesday in Santa Fe, New Mexico. While snow is forecast in parts of the Northwest and mid-Atlantic this weekend, the Southwest should stay dry.

Soggy South: Although outdoor plans will be ruined this weekend from Texas to the Carolinas, the rain and thunderstorms should be welcome across the drought-plagued region.

About 1 to 2 inches of rain — with some spots picking up as much as 4 inches — will fall from the central Gulf Coast to southern Alabama, southern Georgia, northern Florida and the Carolinas. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe near the coast.

Snowy Sunday: That same storm should make a left turn and move up the East Coast, but not before bringing still more rain Sunday to Georgia, Florida, the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Sloppy, wet snow could fall in the Appalachians and parts of the Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday.

The heaviest snow is likely in the West Virginia, Virginia, and eastern Kentucky mountains. In the big cities, Washington and Baltimore could see from 1-3 inches of snow, while Philadelphia only receives about an inch, if any.

Northwest mess: Coastal and valley rain and heavy mountain snow will make for a dreary weekend in the Pacific Northwest. Snow is also likely in the central Rockies on Sunday.

Dry elsewhere: Most of the central and southwestern USA will stay dry this weekend. There will be warmer-than-average temperatures in the upper Midwest.

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Climate change could increase storm surges

Last year's most devastating tropical system -- Hurricane Irene -- was considered by some experts to be a "100-year-event," a storm that comes around only once a century.

Irene lashed the East Coast in August, killing at least 45 people and leading to $7.6 billion in damages.

But a study out this week in Nature Climate Change says that due to global warming, these monster storms could make landfall more frequently, causing destructive storm surges every 3 to 20 years instead of once a century.

The lead author of the study was Ning Lin of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who partnered with scientists at Princeton University to undertake the research.

Lin and her colleagues used computer models to simulate future hurricanes, looking at the impact of climate change on storm surges, with New York City as a case study. The team simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions.

Today, a "100-year storm" has a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York City. But with added greenhouse gas emissions due to the burning of fossil fuels, the computer models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years.

Lin says that knowing the frequency of storm surges may help urban and coastal planners design seawalls and other protective structures.

While the number of hurricanes globally may or may not increase due to global warming, some scientists say that the ones that do form could be more intense than they would be otherwise.

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Sun hurls strong geomagnetic storm toward Earth (Reuters)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field on Tuesday, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.

A coronal mass ejection - a big chunk of the Sun's atmosphere - was hurled toward Earth on Sunday, driving energized solar particles at about 5 million miles an hour (2,000 km per second), about five times faster than solar particles normally travel, the center's Terry Onsager said.

"When it hits us, it's like a big battering ram that pushes into Earth's magnetic field," Onsager said from Boulder, Colorado. "That energy causes Earth's magnetic field to fluctuate."

This energy can interfere with high frequency radio communications used by airlines to navigate close to the North Pole in flights between North America, Europe and Asia, so some routes may need to be shifted, Onsager said.

It could also affect power grids and satellite operations, the center said in a statement. Astronauts aboard the International Space Station may be advised to shield themselves in specific parts of the spacecraft to avoid a heightened dose of solar radiation, Onsager said.

The space weather center said the geomagnetic storm's intensity would probably be moderate or strong, levels two and three on a five-level scale, five being the most extreme.

(Reporting By Deborah Zabarenko, Environment Correspondent; Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

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NW storm cuts power, thousands try to stay warm (AP)

By MANUEL VALDES and JONATHAN J. COOPER, Associated Press Manuel Valdes And Jonathan J. Cooper, Associated Press – Sat Jan 21, 7:22 am ET

SEATTLE – Tens of thousands of Pacific Northwest residents faced the prospect of a chilly weekend after a powerful storm brought snow and ice and left a tangle of fallen trees and damaged power lines. Several Oregon counties saw their worst flooding in more than a decade.

The National Weather Service forecast more rain and winds gusting as high as 40 mph Saturday in Western Washington, a combination that could bring down even more snow-laden and ice-damaged trees.

Nearly 230,000 customers were without power late Friday night in Western Washington, about 220,000 of them Puget Sound Energy customers.

The utility has brought in repair crews from across the West and planned to field more than 800 linemen on Saturday, in addition to tree-trimming crews, spokesman Roger Thompson said.

"The wind is a wild card that could set us back," he said, adding PSE hoped to have the majority of the outages restored by Sunday, although some customers will probably be without power into early next week.

The Weather Service predicted weekend lows in the mid-30s.

Several warming shelters have been opened in the area to aid people whose homes are without heat.

Despite warnings from emergency officials, the first cases of possible carbon monoxide poisoning surfaced Friday night. Two families in the Seattle suburb of Kent were taken to hospitals after suffering separate cases of possible poisoning. Both had been using charcoal barbecues indoors for heat.

The storm was already blamed for three deaths. A mother and her 1-year-old son died after torrential rain on Wednesday swept away a car from an Albany, Ore., grocery store parking lot. An elderly man was fatally injured Thursday by a falling tree as he was backing an all-terrain vehicle out of a backyard shed near Seattle.

On Washington's Mount Rainier, a blizzard kept rescuers from searching Friday for two campers and two climbers missing since early this week. Just east of that region, about 200 skiers and workers were able to leave the Crystal Mountain ski resort after transportation officials reopened the area's main highway, closed two days earlier by fallen trees.

Near Tacoma, three people escaped unharmed Friday when a heavy snow and ice load on the roof of an Allied Ice plant caused the building to collapse. West Pierce Fire and Rescue Battalion Chief Hallie McCurdy said they heard loud noises and got out just in time.

As floodwaters receded, residents of Oregon's Willamette Valley began taking stock of damage in soaked cities.

Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber paid a visit Friday to the hard-hit town of Turner, where 100 homes were damaged or still underwater.

Friday's mainly dry streets belied a morning of terror barely 24 hours earlier, when emergency crews conducted 55 boat rescues as water filled streets, homes and businesses.

"You just watch the water rise hour by hour, and there's nothing you can do about it," Mayor Paul Thomas said. "It's a long, slower sort of torture."

Kitzhaber said the state would work with local and federal officials to try and get disaster funding to Turner and other communities hard-hit by flooding.

The governor praised residents' strong sense of community as neighbors helped each other.

Nancy Ko saw that spirit first-hand. From the safety of higher ground, she watched a live feed from a security camera as water rose over the curb and lapped against the front door of the convenience store and cafe she owns just feet from Mill Creek.

Out of the blue, five strangers showed up and plopped sandbags in front of the door, preventing damage that she believes would have otherwise been far more severe.

"Just a godsend," said Ko, a Korean immigrant who has owned the store for six years. "Good person, amazing persons."

Elsewhere in the Willamette Valley, a 35-year-old woman who drove a Ford Mustang into 4 feet of floodwater was plucked from the roof Friday by deputies who arrived by boat to save her. It was one of a number of dramatic rescues in western Oregon, left sodden by as much as 10 inches of rain in a day and a half that has brought region's worst flooding in 15 years.

Interstate 5, the main road connecting Seattle and Portland, was briefly closed near Centralia so crews could remove fallen power lines.

Much of Washington's capital, Olympia, was without power.

Gov. Chris Gregoire's office, legislative buildings and other state agencies in Olympia lost electricity for several hours before power was restored. The governor thanked repair crews late Friday by hand-delivering peanut butter cookies.

The storm was "a constant reminder of who's in charge. Mother Nature is in charge, she gives us a wake-up call every once in a while, this is one of those," Gregoire said.

It was still snowing in the Cascades, with up to 2 feet possible in the mountains over the weekend.

At Sea-Tac Airport in Seattle, airlines were trying to accommodate passengers whose flights were canceled Thursday. The airport's largest carrier, Alaska Airlines, canceled 50 of its 120 daily departures Friday. On Thursday, Alaska and sister airline Horizon canceled 310 flights to and from Seattle, affecting 29,000 passengers.

In Seattle, Carly Nelson was negotiating an icy sidewalk on her way to Starbucks. Nelson has been frequenting her neighborhood coffee shop to avoid cabin fever.

"I'm pretty tired of it. It gets old pretty fast. All my friends are stranded in little pockets and you can't get together to go to yoga," she said. "I'm just looking forward to being able to go wherever I want to go."

___

Cooper reported from Oregon. Associated Press writers Doug Esser, Ted Warren, Rachel La Corte, Nigel Duara and Nicholas K. Geranios contributed to this report.

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Storm blankets Northeast with a few inches of snow (AP)

PHILADELPHIA – A few inches of snow coated the Northeast on Saturday in a storm so rare this season in the East that some welcomed it.

"We've been very lucky, so we can't complain," said Gloria Fernandez of New York City, as she shoveled the sidewalk outside her workplace. "It's nice, it's fluffy and it's on the weekend," she said of the snow, which hadn't fallen in the city since a rare October storm that that dumped more than 2 feet of snow in parts and knocked out power to nearly 3 million homes and businesses in the region.

By midafternoon, 4.3 inches of snow had fallen in Central Park and 3.4 inches at LaGuardia Airport in New York. Most of eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia, and central New Jersey saw about 4 inches of snow, with a few places reporting up to 8 inches. Flurries and freezing rain fell around Washington, D.C.

In Massachusetts, the National Weather Service says 11 inches fell in the Bristol County town of Acushnet. Cape Cod also saw high totals, including nearly 10 inches in Bourne, noteworthy in a season marked by a lack of snow throughout the Northeast.

The fast-moving storm left several inches of snow in Rhode Island, where the coastal areas took the hardest hit. More than nine inches fell in North Kingstown. Little Compton in Newport County was also hard hit, as eight inches fell there. The storm was expected to move out to sea overnight.

Road conditions were fair Saturday, officials said. Crews in Pennsylvania and New Jersey began salting roads around midnight and plowing soon after. By midmorning, the snow had turned to sleet in Philadelphia north through central New Jersey and had stopped falling altogether by early afternoon.

"It's a fairly moderate snowstorm, at best," said weather service forecaster Bruce Sullivan.

Few accidents were reported on the roads, helped by the weekend's lack of rush hour traffic, but New Jersey transportation spokesman Joe Dee cautioned drivers to build in more time for trips. Though temperatures will warm up this afternoon he said, forecasters expect the wet ground to freeze again overnight.

Flights arriving at Philadelphia Airport were delayed up to two hours because of snow and ice accumulation and about 35 flights had been canceled, but most departing flights were leaving on time, airport spokeswoman Victoria Lupica said.

New York City had 1,500 snow plows at the ready, each equipped with global positioning systems that will allow supervisors to see their approximate location on command maps updated every 30 seconds, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said at a morning news conference.

The equipment was installed last year following a post-Christmas storm in 2010 that left plows stuck and stranded in drifts and left swaths of the city unplowed for days. Bloomberg said the GPS system has already led to "vastly improved communication" between supervisors and plow operators.

In Connecticut, where the October storm did the most damage and some lost power for more than a week, the fast-moving storm left a foot of snow in North Haven, while Haddam in Middlesex County got 11 inches. The totals dropped significantly to the north, where Hartford got around two inches.

As always, some benefited from the snow. Enough accumulated through the week for snowmobiling and ice fishing in New Hampshire, where cross-country ski trails and snowshoeing were open at Bretton Woods and other places.

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