University and federal researchers to receive $1.3 million in NOAA investments for hurricane forecasting advances

September 4, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality has funded seven multi-year proposals totaling $1.3 million this year for university partners and federal scientists to more rapidly and smoothly transfer new technology, research results, and observational advances through NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to operational hurricane forecasting.

These projects further NOAA’s commitment to create a Weather-Ready Nation, in which the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, the economy, and homeland security.

“NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed research provides an opportunity for researchers and forecasters to interact and produce results that can be transitioned into operations,” said John Cortinas, director of NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality, the office that manages the U.S. Weather Research Program, which provides funding for JHT projects. “These important projects will help improve the information and tools that NOAA forecasters and researchers use to forecast tropical cyclones that impact the U.S. population and economy.”

Projects funded in 2013 include:

$327,000 – Improving important NOAA and Navy hurricane models: This project will improve two computer hurricane models by improving ways to better incorporate atmospheric and oceanic processes. Awarded to the University of Rhode Island (Isaac Ginis) and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Morris Bender). $221,300 – Testing new algorithm to better identify a storm’s center: This project will test the use of an automated satellite image center-fixing program to identify the center of tropical cyclones and help improve our ability to objectively and quickly identify the location of tropical storms. Awarded to the University of Wisconsin (Anthony Wimmers) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin- Madison (Chris Velden). $197,792 – Examining if integrating 5 new global models could improve forecasts: This project’s aim is to examine and improve forecasts of tropical cyclone formation by combining the output from five global computer models in a way that produces a skillful forecast. (Awarded to Florida State University Bob Hart, Henry Fuelberg). $178,772 – Developing a visualization tool for assessing storm surge and inundation threats: This project will develop a tool for forecasters to access and visualize a growing and distributed set of storm surge predictions across the U.S. Awarded to the University of North Carolina (Brian Blanton, Rick Luettich) $152,257 – Improving confidence in hurricane intensity forecasts: Computer programs will be developed to estimate the confidence of the intensity forecasts from the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s primary intensity models and develop a consensus forecast from them. Awarded to the University of Miami (David Nolan), the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University (Andrea Schumacher), and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria) $141,903 – Predicting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones:This project will develop a computer program to predict the onset of tropical cyclone rapid intensification using satellite data. Awarded to Florida International University (Haiyan Jiang) $86,000 – Estimating wind speed and duration inside a hurricane:This project will update and improve a computer program that estimates the probability that any location within a hurricane will experience 40, 60 or 75 mph winds, as well as the arrival and departure times of those winds, out to 7 days in advance. Awarded to the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher) at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria).

Started in 2001, the JHT is supported in part by the NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality through the U.S. Weather Research Program and is jointly managed by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and National Weather Service. To learn more, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/.

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University graduates, grieves six lost students (Reuters)

TUSCALOOSA, Ala (Reuters) – Two days after a tornado took her sister's life in April, Michelle Downs Whatley crossed the stage at her own college graduation wearing her lost sister's shoes, salvaged from the wreckage.

Saturday, she strode again in her sister's shoes, figuratively this time, as the University of Alabama granted Danielle Downs a posthumous degree.

Five of the six families of students who perished in the storm gathered to receive posthumous degrees. Two siblings and three sets of parents, most teary-eyed, accepted the plaques and hugs offered by University President Robert Witt.

"You picture seeing your daughter doing this, not doing it for her," Allan Sigler told Reuters after the ceremony. He is the father of Morgan Sigler, 23, who died along with two friends when the tornado swept her home from its foundation.

The University of Alabama students were killed when an EF-4 tornado tore through Tuscaloosa at 5:17 p.m. on April 27. A cell of 63 devastating tornadoes ripped through Alabama that day, killing 243 people throughout the state and 43 in Tuscaloosa, according to the National Weather Service and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Danielle Downs was sheltering with friends not far from where Morgan Sigler huddled in the center of her home. A tree fell from the sky, according to her mother.

"At 5:13 she texted to tell her sister that she loved her; that was the last we heard," said Terri Downs, 54, mother of Danielle and Michelle.

Four other students died in the storm: Scott Atterton, Ashley Harrison, Melanie Nicole Mixon and Marcus Smith.

Two of the students killed were seniors who would have graduated days after the tornado. The university postponed the graduation because the crippled city could not support an influx of family members, or even the student population after the storms damaged water and power systems.

"It was so very hard. It happened and everybody had to leave. We hope these awards will bring the families closer to closure," Witt said.

The university combined Spring and Summer graduations, bringing hundreds of students and families to Coleman Auditorium on Saturday. After an honor guard presentation of first responders, who were critical to saving hundreds of lives, the families received the degrees.

"We appreciate the university for recognizing her accomplishments, but it is bittersweet because she isn't here," said Vega Sigler, 53, mother of Morgan Sigler.

At a memorial service and vigil Friday night attended by five of the families and 300 students, student government president Grant Cochran dabbed tears as he remembered the students who died.

Cochran said Sigler was a "bright, sparkling personality" and self-described Daddy's girl. She had been taking golf lessons to spend more time with her father.

"She did it just for me, Allan Sigler said. "Only God's goodness is getting me through this."

The two had planned to open a wedding stationery business with Morgan's graphic arts degree.

A special reading on Friday celebrated the life of social work major Danielle Downs, 24. She had planned to move to Eglin Air Force Base and work with the children of deployed military parents. Cochran called her an advocate of the underdog.

"I feel like someone cracked half my heart out," Terri Downs said.

Both families expressed appreciation for the support of the University, for their children and others.

"We met the worst of Mother Nature with the best of humanity," Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox said at the memorial service.

(Editing by David Bailey)

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