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Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label forecasting. Show all posts

Raindrop research dials in satellite forecasting accuracy

Dialing in the accuracy of satellite weather forecasting is the goal behind basic research into raindrop size and shape being done at The University of Alabama in Huntsville by a UAH doctoral student who is also an atmospheric scientist in the NASA Pathways Intern Employment Program.

Patrick Gatlin says his work measuring the height and width of raindrops using ground instruments provides an accuracy baseline that is then scaled up to ground radar and then to satellite measurements. He is co-author of a paper on the topic.

"That's really the whole purpose of measuring raindrops, is for remote sensing purposes," Gatlin says. Scaling up accuracy from a small sensor on the ground to large sections of the Earth being observed from space requires very accurately calibrated instruments. "Our ability to correctly depict rainfall using a sensor in space is closely tied to knowing how precipitation varies, right down to the individual raindrop and snowflake size."

Perfecting ground-level instrument observations, enlarging those to encompass ground-based radar and then going even larger to develop accurate satellite measuring instruments is the best way to reduce error as the area under observation increases. "Before we invest in all this satellite instrumentation," Gatlin says, "let's make sure we've got it right."

A coming big step in scaling up precipitation forecasting is NASA's planned launch of its Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) satellite toward the end of February. UAH is a mission contractor, headed at the university by Dr. Larry Carey, an associate professor of atmospheric science, and involving UAH Earth System Science Center research scientist Matt Wingo, who is working with NASA at their flight facility in Wallops Island, Va.

"UAH designed the platform for some of the ground-based instruments that will validate the information from the satellite," says Gatlin.

Carrying an advanced radar/radiometer system to measure precipitation from space, the GPM is the core of what will be a global network of measuring satellites that will provide next-generation global observations of rain and snow. It will serve as a reference standard to unify precipitation measurements from a constellation of research and operational satellites.

Through improved measurements of precipitation globally, the GPM mission will help to advance understanding of Earth's water and energy cycle, improve forecasting of extreme events that cause natural hazards and disasters, and extend current capabilities in using accurate and timely precipitation information.

In his own research, Gatlin has ranged from Iowa and Oklahoma to Canada, Finland, Italy and France. Rather than raindrops, the Canadian research was designed to collect snowflake images in order to improve the accuracy of measuring devices for snowfall.

In each locale, an integrated network of ground-level measuring devices have been deployed, like the Parsivel2, a disdrometer that measures the particle size and velocity of raindrops falling through a laser. Also in use are two-dimensional video disdrometers, which use two video angles to create 2-D pictures that enable determination of raindrop shapes. A video disdrometer on loan from frequent research collaborator Colorado State University is located on the UAH campus behind Cramer Hall.

During a field study, the instruments on the ground take measurements while a plane flies through the clouds to collect actual raindrop information and another flies high above the clouds with remote sensing equipment to mimic satellite radar detection. Results from all the measurement methods are compared.

Enhanced satellite-based precipitation measurements will improve both rainfall and snowfall predictions on a global scale, Gatlin says. "We'll be measuring rain and snow in some areas where we've never measured it before." The ability to better measure raindrop size also can have impact on severe weather forecasting, as small raindrops lead to higher evaporation rates that have been correlated with larger and more forceful microbursts by UAH's Dr. Kevin Knupp and others.

Gatlin is about to finish up a global study focusing just on very large raindrops 5 millimeters in size and larger. These drops are difficult to capture in the small measuring area afforded by measuring instruments, and so their observation is rare. Gatlin says out of 224 million drops he has researched, only 8,000 have been 5 mm or larger.

"Even though large raindrops can have the greatest impact on radar measurements, we don't have a good idea of their concentration," he says. "What I've been doing is bringing together all the raindrop data bases that have collected various types of rainfall data using the same techniques."

Interestingly, while Sumatra holds the honor of having the greatest number of large drops overall, the largest drop collected in his study fell through a measuring device at the UAH campus. It measured 9.1 mm and was formed in a hailstorm when a falling piece of hail melted before landing.


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University and federal researchers to receive $1.3 million in NOAA investments for hurricane forecasting advances

September 4, 2013

 Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013 from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

High resolution (Credit: NOAA)

NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality has funded seven multi-year proposals totaling $1.3 million this year for university partners and federal scientists to more rapidly and smoothly transfer new technology, research results, and observational advances through NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) to operational hurricane forecasting.

These projects further NOAA’s commitment to create a Weather-Ready Nation, in which the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, the economy, and homeland security.

“NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed research provides an opportunity for researchers and forecasters to interact and produce results that can be transitioned into operations,” said John Cortinas, director of NOAA’s Office of Weather and Air Quality, the office that manages the U.S. Weather Research Program, which provides funding for JHT projects. “These important projects will help improve the information and tools that NOAA forecasters and researchers use to forecast tropical cyclones that impact the U.S. population and economy.”

Projects funded in 2013 include:

$327,000 – Improving important NOAA and Navy hurricane models: This project will improve two computer hurricane models by improving ways to better incorporate atmospheric and oceanic processes. Awarded to the University of Rhode Island (Isaac Ginis) and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Morris Bender). $221,300 – Testing new algorithm to better identify a storm’s center: This project will test the use of an automated satellite image center-fixing program to identify the center of tropical cyclones and help improve our ability to objectively and quickly identify the location of tropical storms. Awarded to the University of Wisconsin (Anthony Wimmers) and the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin- Madison (Chris Velden). $197,792 – Examining if integrating 5 new global models could improve forecasts: This project’s aim is to examine and improve forecasts of tropical cyclone formation by combining the output from five global computer models in a way that produces a skillful forecast. (Awarded to Florida State University Bob Hart, Henry Fuelberg). $178,772 – Developing a visualization tool for assessing storm surge and inundation threats: This project will develop a tool for forecasters to access and visualize a growing and distributed set of storm surge predictions across the U.S. Awarded to the University of North Carolina (Brian Blanton, Rick Luettich) $152,257 – Improving confidence in hurricane intensity forecasts: Computer programs will be developed to estimate the confidence of the intensity forecasts from the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s primary intensity models and develop a consensus forecast from them. Awarded to the University of Miami (David Nolan), the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University (Andrea Schumacher), and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria) $141,903 – Predicting the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones:This project will develop a computer program to predict the onset of tropical cyclone rapid intensification using satellite data. Awarded to Florida International University (Haiyan Jiang) $86,000 – Estimating wind speed and duration inside a hurricane:This project will update and improve a computer program that estimates the probability that any location within a hurricane will experience 40, 60 or 75 mph winds, as well as the arrival and departure times of those winds, out to 7 days in advance. Awarded to the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (Andrea Schumacher) at the University of Colorado Boulder and NOAA’s Satellite and Information Service (Mark DeMaria).

Started in 2001, the JHT is supported in part by the NOAA Office of Weather and Air Quality through the U.S. Weather Research Program and is jointly managed by NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and National Weather Service. To learn more, visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook, Twitter and our other social media channels.


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