Solar activity not a key cause of climate change, study shows

Climate change has not been strongly influenced by variations in heat from the sun, a new scientific study shows.

The findings overturn a widely held scientific view that lengthy periods of warm and cold weather in the past might have been caused by periodic fluctuations in solar activity.

Research examining the causes of climate change in the northern hemisphere over the past 1000 years has shown that until the year 1800, the key driver of periodic changes in climate was volcanic eruptions. These tend to prevent sunlight reaching Earth, causing cool, drier weather. Since 1900, greenhouse gases have been the primary cause of climate change.

The findings show that periods of low sun activity should not be expected to have a large impact on temperatures on Earth, and are expected to improve scientists' understanding and help climate forecasting.

Scientists at the University of Edinburgh carried out the study using records of past temperatures constructed with data from tree rings and other historical sources. They compared this data record with computer-based models of past climate, featuring both significant and minor changes in the sun.

They found that their model of weak changes in the sun gave the best correlation with temperature records, indicating that solar activity has had a minimal impact on temperature in the past millennium.

The study, published in Nature GeoScience, was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council.

Dr Andrew Schurer, of the University of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences, said: "Until now, the influence of the sun on past climate has been poorly understood. We hope that our new discoveries will help improve our understanding of how temperatures have changed over the past few centuries, and improve predictions for how they might develop in future. Links between the sun and anomalously cold winters in the UK are still being explored."

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Storms cause damage, deaths, injuries in South (Reuters)

WINSTON-SALEM, North Carolina (Reuters) – Severe storms and suspected tornadoes across the South have resulted in structural damage, power outages, injuries and at least six deaths in three states, officials said on Thursday.

Officials confirmed deaths in North Carolina, South Carolina and Georgia from the extreme weather that swept the region on Wednesday.

A 50-year-old woman and 3-year-old girl died in Davidson County in central North Carolina when an apparent twister destroyed the home they were in, said Major Larry James of Davidson County Emergency Services.

"The house was completely gone," he told Reuters. "The only thing left is the block foundation."

James said 11 other people were injured, and 35 to 50 residences and businesses were damaged.

In a statement, North Carolina Governor Bev Perdue said there also were more than a dozen structures damaged in Randolph County from a reported tornado there.

Severe weather, including a possible tornado, was being blamed for three deaths in a rural area near the town of Rock Hill, South Carolina, said York County Sheriff's Office Lieutenant Mike Baker.

Five people were taken to hospitals with injuries that were not life-threatening after the Wednesday evening storm, and seven homes were severely damaged or destroyed, Baker said.

"Everyone's been accounted for, but we're continuing to search for personal items," Baker said. "This is very significant damage, and a November tornado, it's an unusual weather occurrence for us."

In suburban Atlanta, a man died Wednesday afternoon when a large pine tree fell on top of the sport utility vehicle he was driving in heavy wind and rain, said Captain Tim House, spokesman for the Forsyth County Sheriff's Office.

"The driver was trapped and mortally wounded," House said.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES

Conditions were favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes on Wednesday, with a cold front hitting unusually warm air and significant moisture existing at lower levels of the atmosphere, weather experts said.

"Typically we see our severe weather season during the spring months, but we also have a secondary peak in November," said Neil Dixon, meteorologist with the National Weather Service at Greenville/Spartanburg in South Carolina.

"In November, we see strong cold fronts," he said. "These strong cold fronts move along from the western Carolinas, and the strong wind shear moves ahead of that."

A series of deadly tornadoes battered the Southeast in April, killing an estimated 364 people. With the latest deaths, the number of tornado fatalities for 2011 will likely top 550, said Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center.

This year already ranks as the deadliest from tornadoes since the National Weather Service began its database in 1950, he said.

"The number of fatalities this year directly due to tornadoes is 100 times greater than the recent decades' annual average," Carbin said.

Preliminary reports indicate at least 25 twisters hit Southern states between Tuesday and Wednesday, Carbin said. Reports came from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas.

On Wednesday, at least 15 people were injured in southern Mississippi as storms passed through Jones County, just north of Laurel. Only one of those was transported to an area hospital for treatment, said Don McKinnon, the county's emergency management director.

The American Red Cross said an initial damage assessment in Alabama indicated about 230 homes were affected by severe weather throughout the state, including 16 homes that were destroyed.

(Additional reporting by Verna Gates in Birmingham, Ala, Kelli Dugan in Mobile, Ala, David Beasley in Atlanta and Harriet McLeod in Charleston, S.C.; Editing by Jerry Norton)

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Lee's remnants cause twisters, flooding in South (AP)

By HOLBROOK MOHR and DORIE TURNER, Associated Press Holbrook Mohr And Dorie Turner, Associated Press – 28 mins ago

ATLANTA – The destructive remnants of Tropical Storm Lee slithered farther north Tuesday morning after spawning tornadoes, flooding numerous roads, sweeping several people away and knocking out power to thousands. Record amounts of rain have fallen in parts of Tennessee, and more was expected.

Flash flood watches and warnings were in effect early Tuesday from the Appalachians northeastward into New England, according to the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

More than 9 inches of rain fell Monday in Chattanooga, and forecasters expected rain clouds to loom over the area through the next day. The rainfall beat an all-time mark for rain in 24 hours. Numerous roads were flooded, and even modest winds were pulling trees out of the soggy ground.

"We have had problems with trees coming down, mainly because the soil is so saturated with water," said National Weather Service forecaster David Gaffin in Morristown, Tenn.

To the south, forecasters expected rainfall to taper off in Alabama overnight after flooding numerous Birmingham roads. The weather also caused a roof to collapse at Pinson Valley High School outside Birmingham, according to The Birmingham News. No one was injured.

As many as 200,000 lost power across Alabama as the storm moved through, with most of the outages in the Birmingham area, Alabama Power spokeswoman Keisa Sharpe said. By early Tuesday, the number of outages was down to 187,000, she said. Power outages were also reported in Georgia and Tennessee.

The storm system churned up treacherous waters across the South. In Mississippi, a man drowned while trying to cross a swollen creek, while authorities called off the search for a missing swimmer presumed dead off Alabama. Another man was missing after trying to cross a creek in suburban Atlanta.

Chainsaws and blue tarps were coming out in Georgia neighborhoods hit by suspected twisters that ripped off siding and shingles and sent trees crashing through roofs. The Georgia Emergency Management Agency said about 100 homes were damaged there in Cherokee County, about 30 miles north of Atlanta.

To the southeast in Norcross, a man was swept away when he tried to cross a swollen creek between apartment complexes, Gwinnett County Fire Battalion Chief Dan Rowland said. The search was called off at nightfall, and body recovery operations were going to start Tuesday morning. A companion to the missing man was caught in the creek but managed to make it out of the water.

Mickey Swims and his wife hid in the basement of their house in Woodstock, Ga., as an apparent tornado passed.

"I heard it and saw the trees go around and around," Swims said. "I knew when I heard it that if it touched down, it was going to be bad."

Swims owns the Dixie Speedway, where he estimated the storm caused $500,000 worth of damage. That includes about 2,000 feet of chain-link fence uprooted from its concrete base, walls blown out of a bathroom and concession stands and tractor-trailer trucks turned into mangled messes.

Areas of Louisiana and Mississippi that bore the brunt of Lee over the weekend were also digging out. Lee's center came ashore Sunday in Louisiana, dumping up to a foot of rain in parts of New Orleans and other areas. Despite some street flooding, officials said New Orleans' 24-pump flood control system was doing its job.

Heavy rain fell in Mississippi on Monday, and a swollen creek near an apartment complex in Jackson prompted officials to move 45 families into a storm shelter. In Louisiana's Livingston Parish, about 200 families were evacuated because of flooding.

The man who died in Mississippi, 57-year-old John Howard Anderson Jr., had been in a car with two other people trying to cross a rain-swollen creek Sunday night. Tishomingo County Coroner Mack Wilemon said Anderson was outside of the car and couldn't hold onto a rope thrown by a would-be rescuer.

Jonathan Weeks, a 48-year-old salesman from Plantersville who owns a vacation home nearby, said he helped pull two people to shore and tried to save Anderson.

Weeks said he and his wife saw a van crossing the creek, and he happened to have a rope in the tool box of his truck.

"It all happened so fast. They were in there trying to get out and panicking. The power was out so everything was dark," Weeks recalled in a phone interview Monday.

"We threw them a rope and tied it to a tree," Weeks said. "We got two of them to the bank and were trying to help the driver. We had him on the rope and were trying to pull him in, but I don't think he was able to hold on."

Residents in Lee's wake are worrying about the effects of soggy ground. Part of a levee holding back a lake in Mississippi's Rankin County gave way, endangering some homes and a sod farm. Rankin County Road Manager George Bobo said officials could order evacuations of the few homes if the situation gets worse. The indention left by the levee slide didn't go all the way through to the water, though.

Sharon Spears, a 54-year-old special education teacher, stood in her front yard Monday looking up at the red dirt exposed from the levee slide.

"I'm concerned," Spears said. "I won't sleep any tonight."

Sandy Shamburger said a full breach would ruin his sod farm.

"It would be devastating. It would probably be the end of Rankin Sod," he said.

In Gulf Shores, Ala., surf churned up by the storm proved treacherous. The Coast Guard suspended its search for a swimmer who went missing Sunday. Local authorities were transitioning to efforts to find his body, said Maj. Anthony Lowery of the Baldwin County Sheriff's Office.

Elsewhere, the heavy rain made for a dud of a Labor Day holiday as Gulf Coast beaches mostly cleared of tourists. On Monday morning, the main road on Alabama's Dauphin Island was flooded and covered with sand, jellyfish and foam washed in by Lee. Customers trickled in to the town's largest store on what should have been a busy day.

"It's been kind of boring," said Tabitha Miller, a clerk at Ship and Shore. "It's not killing us though since we're the only gig in town."

___

Associated Press writers Jay Reeves in Dauphin Island, Ala., and Randall Dickerson in Nashville, Tenn., contributed to this report.

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