The sudden increase in lightning is one sign a normal storm is rapidly evolving into a supercell, with a large rotating updraft -- or mesocyclone -- at its heart.
"Supercells are more prone to produce severe weather events, including damaging straight line winds and large hail," said Sarah Stough, a UAH graduate student in atmospheric science. "Supercells also produce the strongest and most deadly tornadoes."
Early results from Stough's research were presented Jan. 7 in Phoenix at the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting.
"Roughly 90 percent of mesocyclones are related to severe weather of some kind, while only 25 percent are associated with tornadoes," Stough said.
Because the sudden increase in lightning strikes is either concurrent with -- or within minutes of -- a supercell forming, UAH researchers are developing algorithms that might be used by forecasters to issue timely severe weather warnings.
"Basically, we keep a 10-minute running average of the number of lightning flashes in a cell," Stough said. "Then, if the flash rate suddenly jumps to at least twice the standard deviation of that running average, there is a high probability the updraft in that cell has strengthened, a supercell is forming and severe weather is more likely with that storm."
"We can use the lightning jump as a nowcasting tool for supercells if the jump is set in the context of that storm's environmental data," said Dr. Larry Carey, a UAH associate professor in atmospheric science. "If the meteorology of the day suggests supercells are likely, the jump can tell us when and where that is happening. Early warning of supercells -- especially the first of a severe weather day -- is an important forecasting challenge."
The lightning jump has been tested as a forecast tool by National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Ala., and at NWS testing facilities in Norman, Okla.
"I know a lot of forecasters are excited about having this information," Stough said.
While the ongoing research uses ground-based lightning detection networks, the UAH team is also working on being able to use lightning counts reported by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper aboard the GOES-R geostationary weather satellite, which is scheduled to launch in 2016.
"The lightning jump is getting in front of forecasters now so we can get feedback, and fit the lightning jump concept into their forecasting methods," said Chris Schultz, an atmospheric science graduate student at UAH and an intern at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. "This way, when the real-time data from GLM is available and the lightning jump is implemented, it will immediately fit into the forecasters' warning operations."
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By Patrick Semansky, APWorkers use a golf cart to carry branches from a tree that fell onto the 14th fairway at Congressional Country Club in Bethesda, Md., on Saturday.•More than 20 elderly residents at an apartment home in Indianapolis were displaced when the facility lost power due to a downed tree. Most were bused to a Red Cross facility to spend the night, and others who depend on oxygen assistance were given other accommodations, the fire department said.•The city of Baltimore opened five cooling centers for residents and extended public pool hours amid high temperatures and power outages, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said.The National Weather Service warned that high temperatures this afternoon will exceed 100 degrees across the mid/lower Mississippi River Valley eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Some are are expected to break record high temperatures."The above normal readings combined with increased humidity will create dangerous heat index values ranging from 105 to 115 degrees," the weather service said.Courtney Mann, a pediatric emergency physician at WakeMed Hospitals and Health in Raleigh, N.C., warned that the public should know how to recognize the signs of heat exhaustion, a precursor to potentially deadly heat stroke.
By Allison Shelley, Getty ImagesA woman inspects a car left in the middle of the road after a massive storm knocked out power in Takoma Park, Md.Early signs include mild dizziness, nausea, headache, muscle cramping, and fatigue. Such symptoms should be treated by drinking cooling fluids or sports drinks, and immersing in cool baths, air conditioning or mists.Anybody exhibiting confusion with a temperature of 104 after external heat exposure should get emergency treatment in a hospital, Mann says. "They can die from heat stroke," she says.Children and the elderly are physiologically most vulnerable, but according to statistics provided by the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services, the great majority of 75 patients reporting heat-related symptoms in the past two weeks were in the 25-to-64 age range.Mann says people working or exercising outdoors should limit activity to early morning or late evening and take multiple breaks."The most effective way to get rid of heat is through evaporation," she says.
By Christian Murdock, AP